Boston Bruins at Dallas Stars
TV ESPN, SN+·American Airlines Center
Our win probability
and the three reasons
42%Bruins
to win
58%
Stars
- Expected goals
- 2.8–3.2
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors DAL.503vs.527win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors DAL-.058vs.0385v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors BOS.201vs.109GSAx / 60
- Home icefavors DALDAL at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersBruins
Jeremy Swayman+0.20 GSAx/6099% to start271 career GP
Stars
Jake Oettinger+0.12 GSAx/6065% to start376 career GP
Casey DeSmith+0.09 GSAx/6035% to start225 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: BOS Marco Sturm · DAL Glen Gulutzan
Leaders
vs- Points
D. Pastrnak100 - Goals
- Assists
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 3.2710th
- Goals for / game
- 9th3.33
- 3.0114th
- Goals against / game
- 2nd2.71
- 23.4%9th
- Power play
- 2nd28.6%
- 77.0%24th
- Penalty kill
- 13th80.3%
- 53.1%4th
- Faceoffs
- 7th51.6%
Season series
first meeting- @this game
- @
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).