San Jose Sharks at Montréal Canadiens
TV NBCSCA, TSN2·Centre Bell
Our win probability
and the three reasons
37%Sharks
to win
63%
Canadiens
- Expected goals
- 2.6–3.4
- Goes to overtime
- 21%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors MTL.479vs.515win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors MTL-.114vs-.0725v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors MTL-.137vs.129GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors MTL.077vs.4315v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors MTLMTL at home
- Back-to-backfavors SJSSJS played yesterday
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersSharks
Alex Nedeljkovic-0.08 GSAx/6043% to start228 career GP
Ilya Samsonov-0.12 GSAx/6036% to start222 career GP
Yaroslav Askarov-0.28 GSAx/6020% to start63 career GP
Canadiens
Samuel Montembeault+0.06 GSAx/6062% to start234 career GP
Jakub Dobes+0.25 GSAx/6038% to start81 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: SJS Ryan Warsofsky · MTL Martin St. Louis
Leaders
vs- Points
M. Celebrini115
N. Suzuki101 - Goals
- Assists
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 3.0417th
- Goals for / game
- 7th3.40
- 3.5430th
- Goals against / game
- 16th3.06
- 21.2%16th
- Power play
- 10th23.1%
- 76.4%26th
- Penalty kill
- 18th78.2%
- 47.8%26th
- Faceoffs
- 11th51.0%
Season series
first meeting- @this game
- @
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).