San Jose Sharks at Detroit Red Wings
TV DSN, NBCSCA·Little Caesars Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
42%Sharks
to win
58%
Red Wings
- Expected goals
- 2.8–3.2
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors DET.479vs.496win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors DET-.114vs-.0605v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors DET-.137vs-.027GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors DET.077vs.2735v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors DETDET at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersSharks
Alex Nedeljkovic-0.08 GSAx/6043% to start228 career GP
Ilya Samsonov-0.12 GSAx/6036% to start222 career GP
Yaroslav Askarov-0.28 GSAx/6020% to start63 career GP
Red Wings
John Gibson+0.04 GSAx/6070% to start589 career GP
Daniil Tarasov-0.18 GSAx/6030% to start98 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: SJS Ryan Warsofsky · DET Todd McLellan
Leaders
vs- Points
M. Celebrini115 - Goals
- Assists
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 3.0417th
- Goals for / game
- 22nd2.91
- 3.5430th
- Goals against / game
- 19th3.10
- 21.2%16th
- Power play
- 12th22.6%
- 76.4%26th
- Penalty kill
- 23rd77.1%
- 47.8%26th
- Faceoffs
- 10th51.0%
Season series
first meeting- @this game
- @
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).