St. Louis Blues at Ottawa Senators
TV STLNHL, BN+·Canadian Tire Centre
Our win probability
and the three reasons
47%Blues
to win
53%
Senators
- Expected goals
- 2.9–3.1
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors OTT.503vs.515win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors OTT.049vs.1075v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signaleven-.058vs-.066GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors OTT.114vs.6095v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors OTTOTT at home
- Back-to-backfavors STLOTT played yesterday
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersBlues
Jordan Binnington-0.15 GSAx/6067% to start425 career GP
Joel Hofer+0.12 GSAx/6033% to start115 career GP
Senators
Linus Ullmark+0.09 GSAx/6062% to start360 career GP
Samuel Ersson-0.33 GSAx/6038% to start143 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: STL Jim Montgomery · OTT Travis Green
Leaders
vs- Points
- Goals
- Assists
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 2.8024th
- Goals for / game
- 8th3.35
- 3.1019th
- Goals against / game
- 13th2.99
- 17.6%26th
- Power play
- 8th24.0%
- 76.7%25th
- Penalty kill
- 29th75.7%
- 49.4%19th
- Faceoffs
- 2nd54.5%
Season series
first meeting- @this game
- @
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).