Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Islanders
TV The Spot, MSGSN·UBS Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
54%Lightning
to win
46%
Islanders
- Expected goals
- 3.1–2.9
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors TBL.523vs.488win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors TBL.125vs-.0695v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors TBL.165vs.078GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors TBL.294vs-.0345v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors NYINYI at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersLightning
Andrei Vasilevskiy+0.22 GSAx/6085% to start725 career GP
Dennis Hildeby+0.08 GSAx/609% to start26 career GP
Mads Sogaard-0.45 GSAx/606% to start31 career GP
Islanders
Ilya Sorokin+0.22 GSAx/6045% to start322 career GP
Vitek Vanecek-0.21 GSAx/6028% to start220 career GP
Semyon Varlamov+0.13 GSAx/6027% to start635 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: TBL Jon Cooper · NYI Peter DeBoer
Leaders
vs- Points
N. Kucherov130 - Goals
- Assists
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).