Detroit Red Wings at Montréal Canadiens
TV DSN, SNE·Centre Bell
Our win probability
and the three reasons
41%Red Wings
to win
59%
Canadiens
- Expected goals
- 2.7–3.3
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors MTL.496vs.515win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors DET-.060vs-.0725v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors MTL-.027vs.129GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors MTL.273vs.4315v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors MTLMTL at home
- Back-to-backfavors DETDET played yesterday
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersRed Wings
John Gibson+0.04 GSAx/6070% to start589 career GP
Daniil Tarasov-0.18 GSAx/6030% to start98 career GP
Canadiens
Samuel Montembeault+0.06 GSAx/6062% to start234 career GP
Jakub Dobes+0.25 GSAx/6038% to start81 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: DET Todd McLellan · MTL Martin St. Louis
Leaders
vs- Points
N. Suzuki101 - Goals
- Assists
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).