New York Islanders at New York Rangers
TV ESPN, SN+·Madison Square Garden
Our win probability
and the three reasons
44%Islanders
to win
56%
Rangers
- Expected goals
- 2.8–3.2
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors NYI.488vs.476win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors NYR-.069vs-.0575v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors NYR.078vs.114GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors NYR-.034vs.3305v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors NYRNYR at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersIslanders
Ilya Sorokin+0.22 GSAx/6045% to start322 career GP
Vitek Vanecek-0.21 GSAx/6028% to start220 career GP
Semyon Varlamov+0.13 GSAx/6027% to start635 career GP
Rangers
Igor Shesterkin+0.33 GSAx/6059% to start369 career GP
Joonas Korpisalo-0.19 GSAx/6041% to start350 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: NYI Peter DeBoer · NYR Mike Sullivan
Leaders
vs- Points
- Goals
- Assists
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).