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Lightning at Predators
NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning at Nashville Predators

NHL scoreboard
Tampa Bay Lightning
2
Nashville Predators
▸3
Final/OTTV The Spot, SCRIPPS·Bridgestone Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Nashville Predators beat the Tampa Bay Lightning 3-2 in overtime, Felix Nilsson scoring at 2:33. The Predators came back from two goals down. The Lightning led 1-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Felix Nilsson's goal at 2:33 of overtime, which took the Predators' chances from 51% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Predators, 2.6 to 1.9; shots on goal were TBL 27, NSH 26. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Predators win a replay of these chances 64% of the time. Dennis Hildeby stopped 23 of 26 (.885); Justus Annunen stopped 25 of 27 (.926). Three stars: 1. Matthew Wood (2 G), 2. Felix Nilsson (1 G), 3. Filip Forsberg.

Three stars

  1. ★
    NSH
    M. Wood2 G
  2. ★★
    NSH
    F. Nilsson1 G
  3. ★★★
    NSH
    F. Forsberg

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
TBLTBL071111900227
NSHNSH050921111326

Scoring

5 goals

2nd period

  1. TBL
    J. Viel(1)
    Z. Girgensons (1)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +17 ptsVideo
    1-0
    3:44

3rd period

  1. TBL
    J. Viel(2)
    P. Holmberg (1), T. Kralovic (1)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +18 ptsVideo
    2-0
    4:54
  2. NSH
    M. Wood(1)
    R. Ufko (1), R. Josi (1)
    tip-inxG 0.06win prob +12 ptsVideo
    2-1
    13:30
  3. NSH
    M. Wood(2)
    J. Ahcan (2)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +44 ptsVideo
    2-2
    17:41

Overtime

  1. NSH
    F. Nilsson(1)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.12win prob +49 ptsVideo
    2-3
    2:33

Penalties

TBL 6 PIM·NSH 4 PIM

1st

  • 18:39TBLTomas Kralovic · Holdingdrawn by Ryan O'Reilly2 min

3rd

  • 0:43NSHChase Bradley · Roughingdrawn by Emil Lilleberg2 min
  • 0:43TBLEmil Lilleberg · Roughingdrawn by Chase Bradley2 min
  • 10:17NSHSteven Stamkos · Hookingdrawn by Charle-Edouard D'Astous2 min
  • 18:40TBLJeffrey Viel · High stickingdrawn by Tanner Molendyk2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NSH goalTBL goalFinal: NSH 100%

Biggest swing: Felix Nilsson, OT 2:33 — NSH 51% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.22M. Wood · Missed · xG 0.21F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.15M. Wood · On goal · xG 0.14M. Wood · On goal · xG 0.13F. Nilsson · Goal · xG 0.12M. Wood · On goal · xG 0.12M. Wood · Missed · xG 0.11M. Wood · Goal · xG 0.11F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.10M. Wood · Missed · xG 0.09F. Nilsson · On goal · xG 0.09J. Barron · On goal · xG 0.08D. Edstrom · On goal · xG 0.07C. Bradley · On goal · xG 0.06R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.06J. Barron · On goal · xG 0.06M. Wood · Goal · xG 0.06J. Ahcan · On goal · xG 0.06F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.05F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.05F. Nilsson · Missed · xG 0.05F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.05N. Hoglander · On goal · xG 0.03F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.03R. Ufko · Missed · xG 0.03F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.03F. Nilsson · Missed · xG 0.03M. Wood · On goal · xG 0.02R. Ufko · On goal · xG 0.02B. Skjei · Missed · xG 0.02R. Schaefer · On goal · xG 0.02B. Skjei · On goal · xG 0.02J. Ahcan · Missed · xG 0.02O. Wiesblatt · On goal · xG 0.02T. Molendyk · On goal · xG 0.02J. Annunen · On goal · xG 0.01F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.01B. Skjei · Missed · xG 0.01F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.01
NSH3 G · 2.6 xG · 40 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TBLvsNSH
1.92 G
All situations
3 G2.6
1.82 G
Even strength
3 G2.0
0.00 G
Power play
0 G0.6
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 75 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TBL36%64%NSH

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.84 – 2.56

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TBLvsNSH
27
Shots on goal
26
56%
Faceoffs
44%
0/1
Power play
0/2
6
Penalty minutes
4
15
Hits
27
14
Blocked shots
11
12
Giveaways
7
3
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
51C. D'AstousD000+110.02010—24:28
78E. LillebergD000020.11002—21:48
82T. KralovicD011-100.00122—20:37
79M. CallahanD000-210.01020—19:23
52M. GroshevD000020.04040—19:14
16S. SantiniD000010.03210—17:46
93G. GoncalvesC000-120.09000—17:26
28Z. GirgensonsC011+100.001005016:43
23S. O'ReillyR000030.121103816:29
94C. GeekieC000-130.131006416:19
53D. DukeL000-100.10220—16:17
41B. RautiainenC000-120.08000—14:54
29P. HolmbergR011+220.17100—14:36
10J. HarkinsC000-110.131006714:33
25J. VielL202+120.32312—14:29
22J. PelletierL000020.09000—13:49
80N. AbruzzeseC000-110.07000—13:30
67N. SteenL000020.382005011:51
Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35D. Hildeby(O)26233.8852.57-0.4362:33

Season series

first meeting

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).