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Montréal Canadiens at Philadelphia Flyers

FinalTV NBCSP, TSN2·Xfinity Mobile Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Philadelphia Flyers beat the Montréal Canadiens 4-2. The Flyers scored first and never trailed. The Flyers led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Matvei Michkov's goal at 13:52 of the second period, which took the Flyers' chances from 72% to 88%. Expected goals favored the Canadiens, 2.5 to 2.2; shots on goal were MTL 29, PHI 25. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Canadiens win a replay of these chances 55% of the time. Jakub Dobes stopped 21 of 25 (.840), 1.8 goals below expected; Samuel Ersson stopped 27 of 29 (.931), 0.5 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Matvei Michkov (1 G, 2 A), 2. Oliver Bonk (1 G, 1 A), 3. Hunter McDonald (1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    PHI
    M. Michkov1 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    PHI
    O. Bonk1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    PHI
    H. McDonald1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
MTLMTL01221205229
PHIPHI2811215425

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. PHI
    tip-inxG 0.50win prob +12 ptsVideo
    0-1
    8:08
  2. PHI
    wristxG 0.03win prob +15 ptsVideo
    0-2
    14:42

2nd period

  1. MTL
    tip-inxG 0.09win prob +15 ptsVideo
    1-2
    6:50
  2. PHI
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.10win prob +16 ptsVideo
    1-3
    13:52
  3. MTL
    backhandxG 0.23win prob +15 ptsVideo
    2-3
    19:49

3rd period

  1. PHI
    snapxG 0.38win prob +13 ptsVideo
    2-4
    12:00

Penalties

MTL 4 PIM·PHI 10 PIM

1st

  • 0:21PHINick Seeler · High stickingdrawn by Cole Caufield2 min

2nd

  • 16:43PHITyson Foerster · Holdingdrawn by Lane Hutson2 min

3rd

  • 4:48PHIHunter McDonald · Interferencedrawn by Brendan Gallagher2 min
  • 10:19PHIHunter McDonald · Roughingdrawn by Kirby Dach2 min
  • 10:19MTLKirby Dach · Roughingdrawn by Hunter McDonald2 min
  • 16:12MTLAlexandre Texier · Roughingdrawn by David Jiricek2 min
  • 16:12PHIDavid Jiricek · Roughingdrawn by Alexandre Texier2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
PHI goalMTL goalFinal: PHI 100%

Biggest swing: Matvei Michkov, 2nd 13:52 — PHI 72% → 88%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
P. Martone · Goal · xG 0.50A. Bump · Goal · xG 0.38D. Barkey · Missed · xG 0.22M. Michkov · On goal · xG 0.21C. Grundstrom · On goal · xG 0.15M. Michkov · Goal · xG 0.09T. Foerster · On goal · xG 0.09P. Martone · On goal · xG 0.08N. Cates · On goal · xG 0.07P. Martone · On goal · xG 0.06A. Bump · Missed · xG 0.06M. Michkov · On goal · xG 0.05M. Michkov · On goal · xG 0.04D. Jiricek · On goal · xG 0.04O. Bonk · Goal · xG 0.03D. Jiricek · Missed · xG 0.02M. Michkov · On goal · xG 0.02P. Martone · On goal · xG 0.02N. Seeler · On goal · xG 0.01G. Wilson · On goal · xG 0.01T. Foerster · On goal · xG 0.01C. Grundstrom · Missed · xG 0.01M. Michkov · On goal · xG 0.01M. Michkov · On goal · xG 0.01J. Gaucher · On goal · xG 0.01M. Michkov · On goal · xG 0.00N. Cates · On goal · xG 0.00E. Andrae · On goal · xG 0.00P. Martone · On goal · xG 0.00
PHI4 G · 2.2 xG · 29 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

MTLvsPHI
2.52 G
All situations
4 G2.2
1.82 G
Even strength
4 G1.7
0.70 G
Power play
0 G0.5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 71 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
MTL55%45%PHI

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.50 – 2.20

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

MTLvsPHI
29
Shots on goal
25
57%
Faceoffs
43%
0/3
Power play
0/0
4
Penalty minutes
10
26
Hits
21
7
Blocked shots
15
12
Giveaways
21
3
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Montréal Canadiens skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
48L. HutsonD000-100.02030—26:08
14N. SuzukiC000010.190006522:54
20J. SlafkovskýL000-320.35100—22:29
13C. CaufieldR000-1100.80100—21:21
93I. DemidovR000-110.11010—20:06
72A. XhekajD011-120.06520—19:46
21K. GuhleD011+130.07300—17:20
47J. StrubleD000-110.01000—17:17
85A. TexierL011+100.06102—16:54
15A. NewhookC000-110.082003115:39
42A. EngstromD000-110.07100—15:28
64D. ReinbacherD000-110.03000—15:00
76Z. BolducR000-110.08410—12:57
91O. KapanenC000010.050006712:16
11B. GallagherR101+110.14100—11:34
71J. EvansC101030.402007511:15
77K. DachC000000.00002011:08
90J. VelenoC011000.0050010010:16
Montréal Canadiens goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
75J. Dobes(L)25214.8402.20-1.8056:12

Season series

PHI leads 3-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).