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Avalanche at Stars
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at Dallas Stars

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
▸2
Dallas Stars
0
FinalTV ABC, SN·American Airlines Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Dallas Stars 2-0. The Avalanche scored first and never trailed. It was tied 0-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Martin Necas's goal at 10:39 of the third period, which took the Avalanche's chances from 48% to 81%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 3.3 to 2.0; shots on goal were COL 22, DAL 17. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Stars win a replay of these chances 53% of the time. Scott Wedgewood stopped 17 of 17 (1.000), 1.9 goals saved above expected; Casey DeSmith stopped 20 of 21 (.952), 0.8 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Martin Necas (1 G, 1 A), 2. Scott Wedgewood (17 saves, 1.000), 3. Casey DeSmith (20 saves, .952).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    M. Necas1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    COL
    S. Wedgewood17 saves, 1.000
  3. ★★★
    DAL
    C. DeSmith20 saves, .952

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
COLCOL070827222
DALDAL080405017

Scoring

2 goals

3rd period

  1. COL
    M. Necas(36)
    A. Lehkonen (26), D. Toews (20)
    tip-inxG 0.14win prob +33 ptsVideo
    1-0
    10:39
  2. COL
    N. MacKinnon(51)EN
    M. Necas (58), J. Manson (26)
    snapxG 0.74win prob +3 ptsVideo
    2-0
    19:02

Penalties

COL 6 PIM·DAL 4 PIM

1st

  • 10:17DALJamie Benn · Trippingdrawn by Valeri Nichushkin2 min

2nd

  • 1:57COLBrett Kulak · Trippingdrawn by Colin Blackwell2 min
  • 3:55COLJack Drury · Roughingdrawn by Mavrik Bourque2 min
  • 3:55DALMavrik Bourque · Roughingdrawn by Jack Drury2 min

3rd

  • 6:12COLBrock Nelson · Hookingdrawn by Jason Robertson2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DAL goalCOL goalFinal: DAL 0%

Biggest swing: Martin Necas, 3rd 10:39 — COL 48% → 81%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
W. Johnston · Missed · xG 0.24W. Johnston · Missed · xG 0.23W. Johnston · On goal · xG 0.18M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.16J. Robertson · Missed · xG 0.15A. Hyry · Missed · xG 0.10M. Duchene · Missed · xG 0.10J. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.08A. Hyry · On goal · xG 0.06A. Hyry · On goal · xG 0.06A. Erne · Missed · xG 0.06M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.05W. Johnston · On goal · xG 0.05J. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.05M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.05O. Bäck · On goal · xG 0.05T. Harley · On goal · xG 0.04M. Bourque · On goal · xG 0.04A. Hyry · Missed · xG 0.03M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.03M. Heiskanen · Missed · xG 0.03N. Lundkvist · Missed · xG 0.03W. Johnston · On goal · xG 0.02M. Bourque · On goal · xG 0.02J. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.02N. Lundkvist · Missed · xG 0.01N. Lundkvist · Missed · xG 0.01E. Lindell · Missed · xG 0.01A. Hyry · On goal · xG 0.00J. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.00A. Hyry · On goal · xG 0.00
DAL0 G · 2.0 xG · 31 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsDAL
3.31 G
All situations
0 G2.0
1.61 G
Even strength
0 G1.3
0.10 G
Power play
0 G0.6
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 70 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL47%53%DAL

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.73 – 1.87

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsDAL
22
Shots on goal
17
55%
Faceoffs
45%
0/1
Power play
0/2
6
Penalty minutes
4
22
Hits
17
11
Blocked shots
12
16
Giveaways
11
8
Takeaways
1

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
7D. ToewsD011+200.17110—23:53
70S. MalinskiD000+130.30320—22:52
11B. NelsonC000+130.240224721:38
88M. NecasC112+230.44200021:19
42J. MansonD011+110.01310—21:07
29N. MacKinnonC101+221.300006420:47
27B. KulakD000000.00102—20:41
62A. LehkonenL011+110.37110—18:30
84B. BurnsD000020.06110—18:16
13V. NichushkinR000000.00100—16:43
92G. LandeskogL000010.0420010014:17
91N. KadriC000020.080005513:52
17P. KellyC000000.01310013:32
37N. BlankenburgD000000.00100—11:57
94J. KivirantaL000010.07200—10:41
18J. DruryC000000.000226710:15
25L. O'ConnorR000020.15000—07:51
20R. ColtonC000010.04100007:49
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
41S. Wedgewood(W)171701.0001.95+1.9560:00

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).