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Sabres at Senators
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Ottawa Senators

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
1
Ottawa Senators
▸4
FinalTV MSG-B, TSN5·Canadian Tire Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Ottawa Senators beat the Buffalo Sabres 4-1. The Sabres scored first; the Senators answered. It was tied 1-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Lars Eller's goal at 5:55 of the third period, which took the Senators' chances from 52% to 80%. Expected goals favored the Senators, 3.8 to 2.0; shots on goal were BUF 22, OTT 24. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 50% of the time. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen stopped 20 of 22 (.909); Linus Ullmark stopped 21 of 22 (.955), 1.0 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Dylan Cozens (1 G), 2. Jordan Spence (1 A), 3. Linus Ullmark (21 saves, .955).

Three stars

  1. ★
    OTT
    D. Cozens1 G
  2. ★★
    OTT
    J. Spence1 A
  3. ★★★
    OTT
    L. Ullmark21 saves, .955

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BUFBUF061907122
OTTOTT0418312424

Scoring

5 goals

2nd period

  1. BUF
    M. Samuelsson(13)
    B. Byram (28), P. Krebs (26)
    wristxG 0.01win prob +18 ptsVideo
    1-0
    8:49
  2. OTT
    D. Cozens(26)
    B. Tkachuk (32), R. Greig (19)
    tip-inxG 0.13win prob +21 ptsVideo
    1-1
    15:18

3rd period

  1. OTT
    L. Eller(5)
    A. Zub (23), W. Foegele (4)
    slapxG 0.13win prob +27 ptsVideo
    1-2
    5:55
  2. OTT
    R. Greig(12)EN
    J. Spence (22)
    wristxG 0.94win prob +6 ptsVideo
    1-3
    17:42
  3. OTT
    S. Pinto(20)EN
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.89Video
    1-4
    18:42

Penalties

BUF 19 PIM·OTT 9 PIM

1st

  • 3:39BUFZach Benson · Holdingdrawn by Brady Tkachuk2 min
  • 9:59OTTBrady Tkachuk · Slashingdrawn by Beck Malenstyn2 min
  • 12:36OTTJordan Spence · Interferencedrawn by Zach Benson2 min
  • 17:09BUFLogan Stanley · Fightingdrawn by Brady Tkachuk5 min
  • 17:09OTTBrady Tkachuk · Fightingdrawn by Logan Stanley5 min

2nd

  • 11:01BUFRyan McLeod · Cross checkingdrawn by Tim Stützle2 min

3rd

  • 18:42BUFJosh Norris · Abuse of officials10 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
OTT goalBUF goalFinal: OTT 100%

Biggest swing: Lars Eller, 3rd 5:55 — OTT 52% → 80%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
R. Greig · Goal · xG 0.94S. Pinto · Goal · xG 0.89N. Cousins · On goal · xG 0.23C. Giroux · On goal · xG 0.20C. Giroux · On goal · xG 0.18D. Cozens · Goal · xG 0.13L. Eller · Goal · xG 0.12S. Pinto · On goal · xG 0.11F. Zetterlund · On goal · xG 0.09D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.09J. Spence · Missed · xG 0.09D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.09W. Foegele · Missed · xG 0.08T. Stützle · On goal · xG 0.07D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.06F. Zetterlund · Missed · xG 0.05D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.05C. Giroux · Missed · xG 0.04D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.03S. Pinto · Missed · xG 0.03J. Spence · Missed · xG 0.03D. Batherson · Missed · xG 0.03C. Crotty · Missed · xG 0.03C. Giroux · On goal · xG 0.02J. Spence · On goal · xG 0.02S. Pinto · On goal · xG 0.02T. Stützle · On goal · xG 0.02L. Thomson · Missed · xG 0.02S. Pinto · Missed · xG 0.01J. Spence · Missed · xG 0.01L. Thomson · Missed · xG 0.01J. Spence · On goal · xG 0.01N. Matinpalo · On goal · xG 0.01N. Matinpalo · On goal · xG 0.01L. Eller · On goal · xG 0.01C. Crotty · Missed · xG 0.00L. Eller · On goal · xG 0.00F. Zetterlund · Missed · xG 0.00
OTT4 G · 3.8 xG · 38 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsOTT
2.01 G
All situations
2 G3.8
1.41 G
Even strength
2 G1.7
0.70 G
Power play
0 G0.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 74 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF50%50%OTT

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.03 – 2.02

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsOTT
22
Shots on goal
24
51%
Faceoffs
49%
0/2
Power play
0/2
19
Penalty minutes
9
24
Hits
32
16
Blocked shots
10
14
Giveaways
13
4
Takeaways
3

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
4B. ByramD011-110.16030—22:58
26R. DahlinD000-220.11010—22:37
23M. SamuelssonD101020.10310—20:49
71R. McLeodC000-110.040124420:41
25O. PowerD000020.04120—19:34
89A. TuchR000010.321107518:57
91J. DoanR000-220.25110—18:25
6Z. BensonL000-210.3810210017:35
72T. ThompsonC000020.220004717:12
17J. ZuckerL000-200.00210—16:48
9J. NorrisC000-210.1110105716:10
73Z. MetsaD000-110.01010—16:04
22J. QuinnR000-120.19200—15:13
64L. StanleyD000-120.03305—13:30
19P. KrebsC011+120.064103312:16
12J. GreenwayL000-100.00220—11:39
29B. MalenstynL000-100.00100—09:33
44J. DunneC000-100.002105707:17
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
1U. Luukkonen(L)22202.9092.02+0.0258:42

Season series

BUF leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).