Skip to content
Hurricanes at Maple Leafs
NHL

Carolina Hurricanes at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Carolina Hurricanes
▸4
Toronto Maple Leafs
3
Final/OTTV NHLN, FDSNSO·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Carolina Hurricanes beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 4-3 in overtime, Alexander Nikishin scoring at 0:41. The lead changed hands 3 times. The Hurricanes led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Alexander Nikishin's goal at 0:41 of overtime, which took the Hurricanes' chances from 49% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Hurricanes, 4.0 to 2.1; shots on goal were CAR 36, TOR 26. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Hurricanes win a replay of these chances 78% of the time. Brandon Bussi stopped 23 of 26 (.885), 0.9 goals below expected; Joseph Woll stopped 32 of 36 (.889). Three stars: 1. Alexander Nikishin (1 G), 2. K'Andre Miller (1 G), 3. John Tavares (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    CAR
    A. Nikishin1 G
  2. ★★
    CAR
    K. Miller1 G
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    J. Tavares1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
CARCAR0831701011436
TORTOR1411111100326

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    D. Joshua(9)
    B. Groulx (2), M. Maccelli (20)
    wristxG 0.43win prob +13 ptsVideo
    0-1
    11:48

2nd period

  1. CAR
    J. Staal(17)PPG
    S. Jarvis (27), S. Aho (46)
    tip-inxG 0.11win prob +15 ptsVideo
    1-1
    5:57
  2. CAR
    E. Robinson(12)Penalty shot
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.21win prob +20 ptsVideo
    2-1
    12:35
  3. TOR
    J. Tavares(24)
    C. Jarnkrok (2), J. McCabe (18)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +20 ptsVideo
    2-2
    13:47
  4. CAR
    K. Miller(6)SHG
    Unassisted
    backhandxG 0.26win prob +24 ptsVideo
    3-2
    17:40

3rd period

  1. TOR
    W. Nylander(24)
    M. Maccelli (21)
    wristxG 0.17win prob +37 ptsVideo
    3-3
    13:50

Overtime

  1. CAR
    A. Nikishin(10)
    S. Jarvis (28), S. Aho (47)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +51 ptsVideo
    4-3
    0:41

Penalties

CAR 4 PIM·TOR 10 PIM

1st

  • 3:07TOROliver Ekman-Larsson · Trippingdrawn by Nikolaj Ehlers2 min
  • 14:16TORNick Robertson · Trippingdrawn by Nikolaj Ehlers2 min
  • 14:39CARAlexander Nikishin · Slashingdrawn by Steven Lorentz2 min

2nd

  • 1:57TORBrandon Carlo · High sticking double minordrawn by Eric Robinson4 min
  • 12:35TORTroy Stecher · Ps hooking on breakawaydrawn by Eric Robinson0 min
  • 16:14CARSean Walker · Trippingdrawn by Matthew Knies2 min

3rd

  • 10:10TOREaston Cowan · Trippingdrawn by Sean Walker2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalCAR goalFinal: TOR 0%

Biggest swing: Alexander Nikishin, OT 0:41 — CAR 49% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
D. Joshua · Goal · xG 0.43M. Knies · On goal · xG 0.17W. Nylander · Goal · xG 0.17T. Stecher · Missed · xG 0.12N. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.10J. Tavares · Goal · xG 0.09M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.08J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.07M. Domi · Missed · xG 0.07D. Joshua · On goal · xG 0.07O. Ekman-Larsson · On goal · xG 0.07J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.07M. Domi · On goal · xG 0.06W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.06S. Lorentz · On goal · xG 0.05B. Groulx · On goal · xG 0.05M. Domi · On goal · xG 0.05E. Cowan · On goal · xG 0.04J. McCabe · On goal · xG 0.04B. Carlo · Missed · xG 0.04W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.03T. Stecher · On goal · xG 0.03S. Lorentz · Missed · xG 0.03E. Cowan · Missed · xG 0.03B. Groulx · On goal · xG 0.03W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.03B. Groulx · On goal · xG 0.02O. Ekman-Larsson · On goal · xG 0.02B. Carlo · On goal · xG 0.01J. McCabe · Missed · xG 0.01S. Benoit · On goal · xG 0.00T. Stecher · On goal · xG 0.00
TOR3 G · 2.1 xG · 32 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

CARvsTOR
4.04 G
All situations
3 G2.1
2.32 G
Even strength
3 G1.8
1.21 G
Power play
0 G0.2
0.41 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 86 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
CAR78%22%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.89 – 2.11

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

CARvsTOR
36
Shots on goal
26
48%
Faceoffs
52%
1/5
Power play
0/2
4
Penalty minutes
10
20
Hits
21
11
Blocked shots
21
10
Giveaways
14
5
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Carolina Hurricanes skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
19K. MillerD101+110.26000—23:58
74J. SlavinD000-210.01010—23:58
5J. ChatfieldD000010.12000—22:07
26S. WalkerD000-150.24232—20:42
20S. AhoC022020.340006718:47
11J. StaalC101-120.384204418:03
27N. EhlersL000-130.05200—18:00
24S. JarvisR022020.4600010017:56
71T. HallL000040.39100—17:39
53J. BlakeR000040.62010—17:07
22L. StankovenC000030.390004016:32
48J. MartinookL000-100.00210—16:31
37A. SvechnikovR000-200.03010—14:36
21A. NikishinD101040.25002—14:23
77M. JankowskiL000000.022105510:40
28W. CarrierL000010.0550010009:32
6M. ReillyD000-110.01000—09:07
50E. RobinsonL101+120.33210—08:25
Carolina Hurricanes goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
32B. Bussi(W)26233.8852.14-0.8660:41

Season series

CAR leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).