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Maple Leafs at Hurricanes
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Carolina Hurricanes

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸5
Carolina Hurricanes
1
FinalTV FDSNSO, TSN4·Lenovo Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Carolina Hurricanes 5-1. The Maple Leafs scored first and never trailed. The Maple Leafs led 4-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Matthew Knies's goal at 4:44 of the second period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 64% to 81%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 4.5 to 3.7; shots on goal were TOR 24, CAR 33. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Hurricanes win a replay of these chances 65% of the time. Joseph Woll stopped 23 of 24 (.958), 1.3 goals saved above expected; Frederik Andersen stopped 19 of 23 (.826), 1.1 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Matthew Knies (1 G, 1 A), 2. Max Domi (2 A), 3. Auston Matthews (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    M. Knies1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    TOR
    M. Domi2 A
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    A. Matthews1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR272819524
CARCAR11301109133

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    B. McMann(7)
    N. Roy (6), J. McCabe (8)
    snapxG 0.12win prob +11 ptsVideo
    1-0
    0:53
  2. TOR
    S. Laughton(2)
    P. Myers (1), S. Benoit (3)
    snapxG 0.21win prob +16 ptsVideo
    2-0
    11:45
  3. CAR
    S. Jarvis(16)
    S. Gostisbehere (16), S. Aho (17)
    snapxG 0.22win prob +16 ptsVideo
    2-1
    15:45

2nd period

  1. TOR
    M. Knies(7)
    M. Domi (7), M. Rielly (17)
    backhandxG 0.16win prob +17 ptsVideo
    3-1
    4:44
  2. TOR
    A. Matthews(11)
    M. Domi (8), M. Knies (21)
    snapxG 0.22win prob +10 ptsVideo
    4-1
    10:39

3rd period

  1. TOR
    B. McMann(8)EN
    N. Roy (7)
    backhandxG 0.78Video
    5-1
    18:16

Penalties

TOR 6 PIM·CAR 4 PIM

1st

  • 13:00TORAuston Matthews · Trippingdrawn by Sean Walker2 min
  • 17:23TORMorgan Rielly · Holdingdrawn by William Carrier2 min

3rd

  • 1:08CARAndrei Svechnikov · Hookingdrawn by William Nylander2 min
  • 8:40TOROliver Ekman-Larsson · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 13:03CARJalen Chatfield · Hookingdrawn by Matthew Knies2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
CAR goalTOR goalFinal: CAR 0%

Biggest swing: Matthew Knies, 2nd 4:44 — TOR 64% → 81%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
S. Jarvis · On goal · xG 0.30N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.30S. Jarvis · Goal · xG 0.22E. Robinson · On goal · xG 0.20M. Jankowski · On goal · xG 0.18J. Blake · On goal · xG 0.18S. Jarvis · On goal · xG 0.17L. Stankoven · On goal · xG 0.16J. Staal · On goal · xG 0.13S. Aho · Missed · xG 0.13A. Svechnikov · Missed · xG 0.12W. Carrier · Missed · xG 0.11A. Svechnikov · Missed · xG 0.09A. Svechnikov · On goal · xG 0.09S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.08A. Svechnikov · On goal · xG 0.08E. Robinson · Missed · xG 0.07W. Carrier · Missed · xG 0.07W. Carrier · On goal · xG 0.07A. Svechnikov · On goal · xG 0.06L. Stankoven · On goal · xG 0.05S. Gostisbehere · On goal · xG 0.05A. Svechnikov · On goal · xG 0.05S. Walker · Missed · xG 0.05S. Jarvis · On goal · xG 0.05T. Hall · Missed · xG 0.04M. Jankowski · Missed · xG 0.04S. Gostisbehere · Missed · xG 0.04A. Nikishin · On goal · xG 0.04A. Svechnikov · On goal · xG 0.04T. Hall · On goal · xG 0.04S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.04L. Stankoven · Missed · xG 0.04S. Walker · On goal · xG 0.04M. Reilly · Missed · xG 0.03S. Aho · Missed · xG 0.03J. Staal · Missed · xG 0.03N. Ehlers · Missed · xG 0.03T. Hall · On goal · xG 0.03A. Svechnikov · Missed · xG 0.02M. Reilly · On goal · xG 0.02A. Nikishin · Missed · xG 0.02M. Reilly · On goal · xG 0.02A. Svechnikov · Missed · xG 0.02L. Stankoven · On goal · xG 0.02J. Chatfield · On goal · xG 0.01S. Walker · On goal · xG 0.01J. Nystrom · On goal · xG 0.01J. Chatfield · Missed · xG 0.01S. Walker · On goal · xG 0.01T. Hall · Missed · xG 0.01S. Jarvis · On goal · xG 0.01W. Carrier · On goal · xG 0.01W. Carrier · Missed · xG 0.01J. Chatfield · Missed · xG 0.01
CAR1 G · 3.7 xG · 55 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsCAR
4.54 G
All situations
1 G3.7
2.34 G
Even strength
1 G2.8
0.60 G
Power play
0 G0.5
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 88 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR35%65%CAR

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.78 – 3.73

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsCAR
24
Shots on goal
33
56%
Faceoffs
44%
0/2
Power play
0/3
6
Penalty minutes
4
20
Hits
18
20
Blocked shots
4
18
Giveaways
13
5
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
28T. StecherD000+110.44020—24:23
22J. McCabeD011+300.00130—22:23
95O. Ekman-LarssonD000010.08002—22:03
34A. MatthewsC101+250.671626920:08
44M. RiellyD011+120.11122—19:52
23M. KniesL112+230.21100—18:04
2S. BenoitD011+200.00410—17:03
91J. TavaresC000-130.712005016:49
88W. NylanderR000-110.84000—15:30
11M. DomiC022+210.01000014:52
55N. RoyC022+210.100005014:36
74B. McMannC202+230.92200014:33
24S. LaughtonC101+120.420206714:19
53E. CowanR000-110.02000—13:55
81D. JoshuaC000+100.00500013:27
51P. MyersD011+100.00110—11:18
18S. LorentzC000+200.00120010:45
89N. RobertsonL000+100.00110—10:00
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
60J. Woll(W)24231.9582.25+1.2540:00
35D. Hildeby9901.0001.50+1.5020:00

Season series

CAR leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).