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Maple Leafs at Flames
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Calgary Flames

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸4
Calgary Flames
2
FinalTV TVAS, SNW·Scotiabank Saddledome

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Calgary Flames 4-2. The Maple Leafs scored first and never trailed. The Maple Leafs led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Matias Maccelli's goal at 7:17 of the second period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 65% to 82%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 2.6 to 1.9; shots on goal were TOR 22, CGY 30. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 54% of the time. Joseph Woll stopped 28 of 30 (.933); Dustin Wolf stopped 18 of 21 (.857), 0.9 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. William Nylander (1 G, 2 A), 2. Nazem Kadri (1 G, 1 A), 3. Joel Farabee (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    W. Nylander1 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    CGY
    N. Kadri1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    CGY
    J. Farabee1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR1321118422
CGYCGY07210013230

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    W. Nylander(18)
    J. Tavares (27)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +11 ptsVideo
    1-0
    0:35

2nd period

  1. TOR
    M. Maccelli(8)
    W. Nylander (32)
    snapxG 0.08win prob +17 ptsVideo
    2-0
    7:17
  2. TOR
    T. Stecher(3)
    W. Nylander (33), A. Matthews (21)
    backhandxG 0.37win prob +9 ptsVideo
    3-0
    9:10
  3. CGY
    N. Kadri(10)
    J. Farabee (11), J. Hanley (7)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +9 ptsVideo
    3-1
    13:15
  4. CGY
    J. Farabee(12)
    N. Kadri (27), M. Weegar (15)
    tip-inxG 0.12win prob +17 ptsVideo
    3-2
    15:46

3rd period

  1. TOR
    B. McMann(18)EN
    S. Laughton (3), B. Carlo (5)
    wristxG 0.57win prob +3 ptsVideo
    4-2
    19:35

Penalties

TOR 4 PIM·CGY 2 PIM

2nd

  • 8:11TORJoseph Woll · Holding the stickdrawn by Mikael Backlund2 min
  • 8:11CGYMikael Backlund · Roughingdrawn by Joseph Woll2 min
  • 17:46TORMatthew Knies · Trippingdrawn by Joel Hanley2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
CGY goalTOR goalFinal: CGY 0%

Biggest swing: Matias Maccelli, 2nd 7:17 — TOR 65% → 82%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.13Y. Sharangovich · On goal · xG 0.13J. Farabee · Goal · xG 0.12M. Frost · On goal · xG 0.12M. Coronato · On goal · xG 0.11C. Zary · Missed · xG 0.10M. Gridin · On goal · xG 0.08M. Coronato · On goal · xG 0.08J. Huberdeau · Missed · xG 0.07N. Kadri · Goal · xG 0.07J. Farabee · Missed · xG 0.06M. Coronato · Missed · xG 0.06M. Coronato · On goal · xG 0.06J. Huberdeau · Missed · xG 0.06C. Zary · On goal · xG 0.05M. Backlund · Missed · xG 0.05M. Gridin · Missed · xG 0.05M. Coronato · On goal · xG 0.04Y. Kuznetsov · On goal · xG 0.04M. Coronato · On goal · xG 0.04J. Huberdeau · Missed · xG 0.04M. Coronato · On goal · xG 0.04M. Gridin · On goal · xG 0.04J. Farabee · On goal · xG 0.03M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.02A. Klapka · On goal · xG 0.02N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.02M. Gridin · On goal · xG 0.02M. Coronato · On goal · xG 0.01K. Bahl · On goal · xG 0.01Z. Parekh · On goal · xG 0.01R. Lomberg · Missed · xG 0.01Z. Whitecloud · On goal · xG 0.01M. Gridin · On goal · xG 0.01Y. Sharangovich · On goal · xG 0.01M. Weegar · Missed · xG 0.01J. Farabee · Missed · xG 0.01J. Hanley · Missed · xG 0.01Y. Kuznetsov · On goal · xG 0.01M. Weegar · Missed · xG 0.00Z. Whitecloud · On goal · xG 0.00C. Zary · On goal · xG 0.00N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.00
CGY2 G · 1.9 xG · 43 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsCGY
2.63 G
All situations
2 G1.9
1.93 G
Even strength
2 G1.8
0.00 G
Power play
0 G0.0
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 78 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR54%46%CGY

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.02 – 1.86

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsCGY
22
Shots on goal
30
62%
Faceoffs
38%
0/0
Power play
0/1
4
Penalty minutes
2
14
Hits
20
27
Blocked shots
17
15
Giveaways
18
7
Takeaways
3

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
22J. McCabeD000+100.00150—23:46
25B. CarloD011+100.05120—21:19
28T. StecherD101+140.51030—20:08
2S. BenoitD000020.02340—18:56
95O. Ekman-LarssonD000010.01020—18:31
63M. MaccelliL101020.33000—17:33
51P. MyersD000+110.04110—17:29
88W. NylanderR123+130.24000—17:00
91J. TavaresC011010.121007116:45
34A. MatthewsC011+220.200208216:35
55N. RoyC000010.081305615:16
74B. McMannC101+110.59210014:54
23M. KniesL000000.06102—14:45
11M. DomiC000010.01010014:28
24S. LaughtonC011+120.311005014:06
89N. RobertsonL000010.0510010012:15
19C. JarnkrokC000000.00010011:21
18S. LorentzC000000.00120010:53
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
60J. Woll(W)30282.9331.86-0.1460:00

Season series

TOR leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).