Skip to content
Sabres at Maple Leafs
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
▸7
Toronto Maple Leafs
4
FinalTV MSG-B, TSN4·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 7-4. The lead changed hands 2 times. The Sabres led 4-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Rasmus Dahlin's goal at 18:17 of the second period, which took the Sabres' chances from 47% to 70%. Expected goals were close — BUF 3.1, TOR 3.2; shots on goal were BUF 31, TOR 23. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 59% of the time. Colten Ellis stopped 16 of 18 (.889); Joseph Woll stopped 24 of 30 (.800), 3.4 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Rasmus Dahlin (3 G, 2 A), 2. Alex Tuch (1 G), 3. Mattias Samuelsson (3 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    R. Dahlin3 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    BUF
    A. Tuch1 G
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    M. Samuelsson3 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BUFBUF31011635731
TORTOR2617110423

Scoring

11 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    M. Knies(13)
    J. Tavares (26), M. Maccelli (14)
    wristxG 0.30win prob +12 ptsVideo
    0-1
    7:44
  2. BUF
    R. Dahlin(9)
    R. McLeod (24), M. Samuelsson (21)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +13 ptsVideo
    1-1
    9:29
  3. TOR
    A. Matthews(26)
    M. Domi (19), O. Ekman-Larsson (24)
    backhandxG 0.27win prob +13 ptsVideo
    1-2
    10:49
  4. BUF
    J. Doan(16)PPG
    R. Dahlin (30)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +11 pts
    2-2
    13:16
  5. BUF
    T. Thompson(28)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.04win prob +15 ptsVideo
    3-2
    18:05

2nd period

  1. TOR
    B. McMann(17)
    A. Matthews (18), M. Domi (20)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +19 ptsVideo
    3-3
    11:17
  2. BUF
    R. Dahlin(10)
    M. Samuelsson (22), P. Krebs (16)
    tip-inxG 0.06win prob +23 ptsVideo
    4-3
    18:17

3rd period

  1. BUF
    A. Tuch(19)
    T. Thompson (27), M. Samuelsson (23)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +18 ptsVideo
    5-3
    0:16
  2. BUF
    J. Quinn(12)
    R. Dahlin (31)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +3 ptsVideo
    6-3
    11:33
  3. TOR
    M. Domi(8)
    A. Matthews (19), B. McMann (12)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +1 ptsVideo
    6-4
    14:59
  4. BUF
    R. Dahlin(11)EN
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.52Video
    7-4
    19:16

Penalties

BUF 0 PIM·TOR 4 PIM

1st

  • 12:27TORSteven Lorentz · Cross checkingdrawn by Noah Ostlund2 min

3rd

  • 6:53TORBrandon Carlo · Trippingdrawn by Zach Benson2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalBUF goalFinal: TOR 0%

Biggest swing: Rasmus Dahlin, 2nd 18:17 — BUF 47% → 70%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Knies · Goal · xG 0.30A. Matthews · Goal · xG 0.27A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.27M. Maccelli · On goal · xG 0.23M. Maccelli · On goal · xG 0.23C. Jarnkrok · On goal · xG 0.20B. McMann · On goal · xG 0.18A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.15M. Domi · Goal · xG 0.13J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.12J. McCabe · On goal · xG 0.12M. Knies · On goal · xG 0.11A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.10M. Domi · On goal · xG 0.09B. McMann · Goal · xG 0.09S. Lorentz · On goal · xG 0.09A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.08J. McCabe · Missed · xG 0.06S. Laughton · Missed · xG 0.06C. Jarnkrok · On goal · xG 0.04B. McMann · On goal · xG 0.04J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.03B. McMann · On goal · xG 0.03O. Ekman-Larsson · On goal · xG 0.03M. Domi · Missed · xG 0.03E. Cowan · On goal · xG 0.02M. Maccelli · On goal · xG 0.02S. Lorentz · Missed · xG 0.02M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.01M. Domi · On goal · xG 0.01T. Stecher · On goal · xG 0.01M. Domi · Missed · xG 0.01S. Lorentz · Missed · xG 0.01
TOR4 G · 3.2 xG · 33 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsTOR
3.16 G
All situations
4 G3.2
2.25 G
Even strength
4 G2.9
0.31 G
Power play
0 G0.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 79 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF41%59%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.57 – 3.09

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsTOR
31
Shots on goal
23
33%
Faceoffs
67%
1/2
Power play
0/0
0
Penalty minutes
4
16
Hits
32
19
Blocked shots
13
24
Giveaways
11
5
Takeaways
8

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
26R. DahlinD325+270.91010—26:24
25O. PowerD000-130.06010—23:02
4B. ByramD000000.20020—22:48
23M. SamuelssonD033+200.00420—21:41
72T. ThompsonC112+120.181301418:57
86N. OstlundC000010.121001418:33
91J. DoanR101050.30020—17:19
6Z. BensonL000+100.02010—17:02
94K. HeleniusC000-120.130005016:12
17J. ZuckerL000030.570002515:55
89A. TuchR101+220.15110—15:44
8M. KesselringD000+120.07120—15:08
22J. QuinnR101020.34000—14:21
71R. McLeodC011000.001006413:36
29B. MalenstynL000+100.00130—11:54
19P. KrebsC011+110.020103011:47
48T. KozakC000+100.00600011:20
73Z. MetsaD000010.02000—08:17
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
92C. Ellis(W)18162.8892.42+0.4247:46
1U. Luukkonen532.6000.76-1.2412:14

Season series

BUF leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).