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Wild at Sabres
NHL

Minnesota Wild at Buffalo Sabres

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Minnesota Wild
▸5
Buffalo Sabres
4
Final/OTTV NHLN, FDSNNO·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Minnesota Wild beat the Buffalo Sabres 5-4 in overtime, Mats Zuccarello scoring at 1:46. The lead changed hands 2 times. It was tied 4-4 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Mats Zuccarello's goal at 1:46 of overtime, which took the Wild's chances from 49% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Wild, 4.6 to 2.7; shots on goal were MIN 36, BUF 24. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Wild win a replay of these chances 78% of the time. Filip Gustavsson stopped 20 of 24 (.833), 1.3 goals below expected; Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen stopped 31 of 36 (.861). Three stars: 1. Quinn Hughes (1 G, 1 A), 2. Mats Zuccarello (1 G, 1 A), 3. Jack Quinn (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    MIN
    Q. Hughes1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    MIN
    M. Zuccarello1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    J. Quinn1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
MINMIN2721801011536
BUFBUF16390900424

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. MIN
    M. Foligno(3)
    V. Tarasenko (14), B. Jones (1)
    snapxG 0.18win prob +13 ptsVideo
    1-0
    9:19
  2. BUF
    R. McLeod(11)
    J. Quinn (16), J. Zucker (12)
    deflectedxG 0.11win prob +13 ptsVideo
    1-1
    10:05
  3. MIN
    R. Hartman(13)
    Q. Hughes (37), K. Kaprizov (28)
    tip-inxG 0.42win prob +16 ptsVideo
    2-1
    19:52

2nd period

  1. MIN
    V. Tarasenko(9)
    J. Spurgeon (10), D. Yurov (11)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +17 ptsVideo
    3-1
    1:08
  2. BUF
    P. Krebs(4)
    M. Samuelsson (16)
    tip-inxG 0.06win prob +17 ptsVideo
    3-2
    10:07
  3. BUF
    J. Quinn(11)
    R. Dahlin (28), J. Zucker (13)
    wristxG 0.18win prob +19 ptsVideo
    3-3
    11:34
  4. BUF
    A. Tuch(17)PPG
    T. Thompson (25), R. McLeod (20)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +18 ptsVideo
    3-4
    16:07
  5. MIN
    Q. Hughes(4)
    K. Kaprizov (29), M. Zuccarello (17)
    slapxG 0.09win prob +21 ptsVideo
    4-4
    17:04

Overtime

  1. MIN
    M. Zuccarello(6)PPG
    K. Kaprizov (30), F. Gustavsson (1)
    snapxG 0.16win prob +51 ptsVideo
    5-4
    1:46

Penalties

MIN 15 PIM·BUF 15 PIM

1st

  • 3:10BUFTage Thompson · Hookingdrawn by Quinn Hughes2 min
  • 10:05BUFMichael Kesselring · Unsportsmanlike conductdrawn by Marcus Foligno2 min
  • 10:05MINMarcus Foligno · Unsportsmanlike conductdrawn by Michael Kesselring2 min
  • 12:11MINMarcus Foligno · Fightingdrawn by Michael Kesselring5 min
  • 12:11BUFMichael Kesselring · Fightingdrawn by Marcus Foligno5 min
  • 15:25MINQuinn Hughes · Hookingdrawn by Tage Thompson2 min
  • 16:26MINDanila Yurov · Hookingdrawn by Rasmus Dahlin2 min

2nd

  • 1:47BUFBowen Byram · Slashingdrawn by Danila Yurov2 min
  • 4:08BUFMichael Kesselring · Hookingdrawn by Vinnie Hinostroza2 min
  • 12:19MINDavid Jiricek · Roughingdrawn by Michael Kesselring2 min
  • 15:01MINDanila Yurov · Holdingdrawn by Peyton Krebs2 min

3rd

  • 19:46BUFPeyton Krebs · Hookingdrawn by Vladimir Tarasenko2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalMIN goalFinal: BUF 0%

Biggest swing: Mats Zuccarello, OT 1:46 — MIN 49% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.19R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.19J. Quinn · Goal · xG 0.19T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.17M. Kesselring · Missed · xG 0.15R. McLeod · On goal · xG 0.13N. Ostlund · Missed · xG 0.12A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.12T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.12R. McLeod · Goal · xG 0.11T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.11J. Zucker · On goal · xG 0.09R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.07J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.07P. Krebs · Missed · xG 0.07Z. Metsa · Missed · xG 0.06J. Zucker · On goal · xG 0.06A. Tuch · Goal · xG 0.06Z. Benson · On goal · xG 0.06P. Krebs · Goal · xG 0.06R. Dahlin · Missed · xG 0.06T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.05A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.05J. Zucker · On goal · xG 0.04J. Doan · On goal · xG 0.04A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.04T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.04J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.04R. Dahlin · Missed · xG 0.03J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.03O. Power · Missed · xG 0.02B. Byram · On goal · xG 0.02T. Kozak · On goal · xG 0.01J. Quinn · Missed · xG 0.01T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.01J. Doan · Missed · xG 0.01Z. Metsa · Missed · xG 0.01M. Kesselring · Missed · xG 0.01
BUF4 G · 2.7 xG · 38 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

MINvsBUF
4.65 G
All situations
4 G2.7
3.54 G
Even strength
3 G2.0
1.21 G
Power play
1 G0.6
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 87 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
MIN78%22%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 4.61 – 2.67

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

MINvsBUF
36
Shots on goal
24
55%
Faceoffs
45%
1/4
Power play
1/4
15
Penalty minutes
15
31
Hits
21
9
Blocked shots
16
11
Giveaways
10
6
Takeaways
3

Box score

every player line
Minnesota Wild skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
43Q. HughesD112+140.27012—29:52
7B. FaberD000+120.08010—28:41
36M. ZuccarelloR112+140.600007525:35
97K. KaprizovL033+130.94100—24:28
38R. HartmanR101+140.521104622:10
5J. MiddletonD000030.18340—21:17
22D. YurovR011+110.362143816:27
46J. SpurgeonD011020.01200—16:16
91V. TarasenkoR112+250.75300—15:55
13Y. TreninC000+100.00900015:33
17M. FolignoL101020.26207—14:25
18V. HinostrozaC000-130.360005012:28
48D. HuntD000000.01000—11:36
78N. SturmC000-110.030007510:55
55D.JiricekD000000.00112—09:12
39B. JonesC011-100.08000008:54
37H. HaightC000000.0030010008:06
19T. PitlickC000-120.17400006:08
Minnesota Wild goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
32F. Gustavsson(W)24204.8332.71-1.2961:46

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).