Islanders at Red Wings 2-3 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

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New York Islanders

Detroit Red Wings

▸3

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Recap

written from the game data

The Detroit Red Wings beat the New York Islanders 3-2. The lead changed hands 2 times. The Islanders led 1-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Alex DeBrincat's goal at 17:43 of the third period, which took the Red Wings' chances from 60% to 95%. Expected goals favored the Red Wings, 3.5 to 1.1; shots on goal were NYI 18, DET 21. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Red Wings win a replay of these chances 83% of the time. Ilya Sorokin stopped 18 of 21 (.857); John Gibson stopped 16 of 18 (.889), 0.9 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Alex DeBrincat (2 G), 2. Lucas Raymond (3 A), 3. Scott Mayfield (1 G).

Three stars

★
A. DeBrincat2 G
★★
L. Raymond3 A
★★★
S. Mayfield1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NYI	17	07	14	218
DET	08	05	38	321

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

E. Heineman(11)
M. Barzal (17), J. Drouin (13)
slapxG 0.09win prob +12 ptsVideo
1-0
4:27

3rd period

A. Sandin-Pellikka(4)
L. Raymond (25)
wristxG 0.06win prob +25 ptsVideo
1-1
2:03
A. DeBrincat(19)PPG
M. Seider (19), L. Raymond (26)
snapxG 0.14win prob +19 ptsVideo
1-2
3:55
S. Mayfield(1)
J. Pageau (8), A. Lee (13)
wristxG 0.11win prob +32 ptsVideo
2-2
11:26
A. DeBrincat(20)PPG
M. Seider (20), L. Raymond (27)
snapxG 0.16win prob +34 ptsVideo
2-3
17:43

Penalties

4 PIM·

2 PIM

2nd

18:10Simon Edvinsson · Hookingdrawn by Mathew Barzal2 min

3rd

3:17Matthew Schaefer · Holdingdrawn by Emmitt Finnie2 min
16:50Scott Mayfield · Trippingdrawn by Dylan Larkin2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: DET

100%

Biggest swing: Alex DeBrincat, 3rd 17:43 — DET 60% → 95%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

3 G · 3.5 xG · 41 att

←

attacks

attacks →

2 G · 1.1 xG · 30 att DET

3 G · 3.5 xG · 41 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

1.12 G
All situations: 3 G3.5; 1.02 G
Even strength: 1 G2.7; 0.10 G
Power play: 2 G0.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 71 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

17%83%

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.13 – 2.95

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

18
Shots on goal: 21; 55%
Faceoffs: 45%; 0/1
Power play: 2/2; 4
Penalty minutes: 2; 16
Hits: 14; 21
Blocked shots: 19; 9
Giveaways: 13; 3
Takeaways: 5

Box score

every player line

New York Islanders skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
48M. SchaeferD	0	0	0	0	1	0.19	0	3	2	—	25:56
6R. PulockD	0	0	0	-1	1	0.02	1	4	0	—	22:42
13M. BarzalC	0	1	1	+1	1	0.12	0	0	0	53	22:26
29J. DrouinL	0	1	1	+1	1	0.05	0	0	0	100	20:47
3A. PelechD	0	0	0	0	1	0.03	0	0	0	—	18:59
77T. DeAngeloD	0	0	0	+1	2	0.05	0	0	0	—	17:47
51E. HeinemanL	1	0	1	+1	3	0.21	1	5	0	—	16:57
49M. ShabanovR	0	0	0	-1	0	0.07	0	0	0	—	16:15
24S. MayfieldD	1	0	1	+1	1	0.11	0	3	2	—	16:14
27A. LeeL	0	1	1	+1	3	0.11	0	1	0	100	15:27
38T. MitchellD	0	0	0	+1	1	0.01	2	1	0	—	15:04
11A. DuclairL	0	0	0	-1	1	0.01	0	0	0	—	15:00
44J. PageauC	0	1	1	+1	0	0.00	1	1	0	55	14:58
10S. HolmstromR	0	0	0	+1	0	0.09	0	0	0	—	14:42
53C. CizikasC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2	1	0	50	12:43
32K. MacLeanC	0	0	0	0	2	0.05	2	1	0	0	11:45
64C. RitchieC	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	0	1	0	33	11:28
16M. GatcombC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	7	0	0	0	11:13

New York Islanders goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
30I. Sorokin(L)	21	18	3	.857	3.02	+0.02	58:06

Season series

NYI leads 2-1

Oct 232@7Final
Nov 205@0Final
Dec 162@3this game

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

New York Islanders at Detroit Red Wings

1st period

3rd period

2nd

3rd

Box score