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Senators at Blues
NHL

Ottawa Senators at St. Louis Blues

NHL scoreboard
Ottawa Senators
3
St. Louis Blues
▸4
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Recap

written from the game data

The St. Louis Blues beat the Ottawa Senators 4-3. The lead changed hands 3 times. The Senators led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Matthew Kessel's goal at 9:19 of the third period, which took the Blues' chances from 52% to 83%. Expected goals were close — OTT 3.2, STL 3.3; shots on goal were OTT 28, STL 31. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Blues win a replay of these chances 53% of the time. Leevi Meriläinen stopped 27 of 31 (.871), 0.7 goals below expected; Jordan Binnington stopped 25 of 28 (.893). Three stars: 1. Pavel Buchnevich (1 G), 2. Brayden Schenn (1 A), 3. Shane Pinto (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    STL
    P. Buchnevich1 G
  2. ★★
    STL
    B. Schenn1 A
  3. ★★★
    OTT
    S. Pinto1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
OTTOTT0529114328
STLSTL07111313431

Scoring

7 goals

2nd period

  1. STL
    O. Sundqvist(1)
    M. Joseph (5), N. Walker (6)
    wristxG 0.16win prob +18 ptsVideo
    0-1
    7:59
  2. OTT
    S. Pinto(12)
    N. Matinpalo (4), M. Amadio (4)
    wristxG 0.33win prob +18 ptsVideo
    1-1
    10:11
  3. OTT
    F. Zetterlund(4)
    J. Sanderson (15), B. Tkachuk (4)
    wristxG 0.23win prob +23 ptsVideo
    2-1
    18:26

3rd period

  1. STL
    J. Kyrou(7)
    J. Neighbours (3), R. Thomas (11)
    backhandxG 0.22win prob +25 ptsVideo
    2-2
    2:01
  2. STL
    P. Buchnevich(3)
    B. Schenn (5), P. Broberg (7)
    snapxG 0.12win prob +27 ptsVideo
    2-3
    5:33
  3. OTT
    D. Perron(3)
    Unassisted
    backhandxG 0.20win prob +28 ptsVideo
    3-3
    7:31
  4. STL
    M. Kessel(2)
    D. Holloway (6), P. Suter (6)
    backhandxG 0.13win prob +31 ptsVideo
    3-4
    9:19

Penalties

OTT 10 PIM·STL 6 PIM

1st

  • 4:12STLCam Fowler · Hookingdrawn by Tim Stützle2 min
  • 4:12OTTTim Stützle · Embellishment2 min
  • 6:36OTTDrake Batherson · Hookingdrawn by Dylan Holloway2 min

2nd

  • 0:31STLMathieu Joseph · Cross checkingdrawn by Fabian Zetterlund2 min
  • 0:31STLLogan Mailloux · Roughingdrawn by Dylan Cozens2 min
  • 0:31OTTDylan Cozens · Roughingdrawn by Logan Mailloux2 min
  • 10:30OTTHayden Hodgson · Interferencedrawn by Dalibor Dvorsky2 min
  • 15:37OTTTim Stützle · Holdingdrawn by Jordan Kyrou2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
STL goalOTT goalFinal: STL 100%

Biggest swing: Matthew Kessel, 3rd 9:19 — STL 52% → 83%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
D. Holloway · On goal · xG 0.45J. Kyrou · Goal · xG 0.22B. Schenn · Missed · xG 0.21D. Dvorsky · On goal · xG 0.19O. Sundqvist · Goal · xG 0.16B. Schenn · On goal · xG 0.16D. Dvorsky · On goal · xG 0.14M. Kessel · Goal · xG 0.13B. Schenn · On goal · xG 0.12J. Neighbours · On goal · xG 0.12P. Buchnevich · Goal · xG 0.12O. Sundqvist · On goal · xG 0.11N. Walker · Missed · xG 0.10B. Schenn · Missed · xG 0.10B. Schenn · On goal · xG 0.09J. Neighbours · Missed · xG 0.08D. Dvorsky · On goal · xG 0.08D. Holloway · On goal · xG 0.08D. Holloway · On goal · xG 0.07J. Snuggerud · Missed · xG 0.07P. Broberg · On goal · xG 0.07C. Fowler · On goal · xG 0.06M. Joseph · Missed · xG 0.05D. Holloway · On goal · xG 0.05J. Kyrou · Missed · xG 0.03P. Broberg · Missed · xG 0.03D. Dvorsky · On goal · xG 0.03D. Holloway · On goal · xG 0.03J. Faulk · On goal · xG 0.03D. Holloway · Missed · xG 0.02D. Holloway · On goal · xG 0.02M. Kessel · Missed · xG 0.02C. Fowler · On goal · xG 0.01C. Fowler · On goal · xG 0.01C. Parayko · On goal · xG 0.01C. Fowler · On goal · xG 0.01D. Holloway · On goal · xG 0.01O. Sundqvist · Missed · xG 0.01C. Parayko · On goal · xG 0.01P. Buchnevich · On goal · xG 0.01M. Joseph · On goal · xG 0.01L. Mailloux · On goal · xG 0.00
STL4 G · 3.3 xG · 42 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

OTTvsSTL
3.23 G
All situations
4 G3.3
2.53 G
Even strength
4 G3.0
0.70 G
Power play
0 G0.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 82 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
OTT47%53%STL

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.04 – 3.21

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

OTTvsSTL
28
Shots on goal
31
52%
Faceoffs
48%
0/1
Power play
0/3
10
Penalty minutes
6
20
Hits
17
17
Blocked shots
15
15
Giveaways
21
7
Takeaways
0

Box score

every player line
Ottawa Senators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
85J. SandersonD011-110.01050—27:18
18T. StützleC000-300.002044421:24
12S. PintoC101+240.571004020:50
2A. ZubD000-100.00120—19:58
19D. BathersonR000-230.201125018:41
43T. KlevenD000010.02020—18:34
33N. MatinpaloD011020.28000—17:28
7B. TkachukL011080.903005017:12
24D. CozensC000010.325126716:37
28C. GirouxR000+100.000107516:30
10J. SpenceD000010.04110—16:17
3N. JensenD000010.04010—16:02
22M. AmadioR011+210.09110—13:34
20F. ZetterlundL101020.35010—13:32
89L. EllerC000020.111005011:53
57D. PerronL101010.29210—10:40
21N. CousinsC000-200.0010010010:17
42H. HodgsonR000-100.00102—08:00
Ottawa Senators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
1L. Meriläinen(L)31274.8713.32-0.6857:13

Season series

STL leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).