Wild at Rangers 3-1 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Minnesota Wild

▸3

New York Rangers

FinalTV NHLN, FDSNNO·Madison Square Garden

Recap

written from the game data

The Minnesota Wild beat the New York Rangers 3-1. The Rangers scored first; the Wild answered. It was tied 1-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Danila Yurov's goal at 8:16 of the third period, which took the Wild's chances from 48% to 79%. Expected goals favored the Wild, 3.7 to 2.5; shots on goal were MIN 32, NYR 24. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Wild win a replay of these chances 62% of the time. Filip Gustavsson stopped 23 of 24 (.958), 1.5 goals saved above expected; Igor Shesterkin stopped 29 of 31 (.935), 1.3 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Danila Yurov (1 G), 2. Filip Gustavsson (23 saves, .958), 3. Igor Shesterkin (29 saves, .935).

Three stars

★
D. Yurov1 G
★★
F. Gustavsson23 saves, .958
★★★
I. Shesterkin29 saves, .935

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
MIN	116	011	25	332
NYR	16	011	07	124

Scoring

4 goals

1st period

A. Panarin(2)
M. Zibanejad (2), W. Borgen (2)
wristxG 0.12win prob +11 ptsVideo
0-1
0:57
J. Brodin(1)
M. Boldy (6), J. Eriksson Ek (4)
wristxG 0.04win prob +12 ptsVideo
1-1
5:10

3rd period

D. Yurov(1)
M. Johansson (3)
wristxG 0.20win prob +31 ptsVideo
2-1
8:16
K. Kaprizov(5)EN
R. Hartman (1)
wristxG 0.39win prob +5 ptsVideo
3-1
18:24

Penalties

2 PIM·

6 PIM

1st

15:11Will Borgen · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

2nd

5:08Alexis Lafrenière · Hookingdrawn by Matt Boldy2 min
16:37Will Cuylle · Roughingdrawn by Vladimir Tarasenko2 min

3rd

3:05Jake Middleton · Hookingdrawn by Conor Sheary2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: NYR

Biggest swing: Danila Yurov, 3rd 8:16 — MIN 48% → 79%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

1 G · 2.5 xG · 44 att

←

attacks

attacks →

3 G · 3.7 xG · 50 att NYR

1 G · 2.5 xG · 44 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

3.72 G
All situations: 1 G2.5; 2.62 G
Even strength: 1 G2.0; 0.70 G
Power play: 0 G0.6; 0.00 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 94 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

62%38%

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.23 – 2.53

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

32
Shots on goal: 24; 49%
Faceoffs: 51%; 0/3
Power play: 0/1; 2
Penalty minutes: 6; 20
Hits: 34; 19
Blocked shots: 21; 12
Giveaways: 11; 3
Takeaways: 2

Box score

every player line

Minnesota Wild skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
46J. SpurgeonD	0	0	0	0	2	0.10	2	5	0	—	22:19
7B. FaberD	0	0	0	+2	3	0.09	0	2	0	—	22:03
25J. BrodinD	1	0	1	+2	1	0.04	0	3	0	—	21:25
97K. KaprizovL	1	0	1	+2	6	1.15	0	0	0	—	21:24
12M. BoldyL	0	1	1	+2	4	0.53	0	0	0	100	21:15
14J. Eriksson EkC	0	1	1	+1	2	0.12	0	0	0	45	20:38
8Z. BuiumD	0	0	0	-1	0	0.16	0	0	0	—	18:44
38R. HartmanR	0	1	1	+1	3	0.22	1	2	0	41	18:23
5J. MiddletonD	0	0	0	+1	2	0.01	2	0	2	—	15:58
90M. JohanssonL	0	1	1	0	1	0.02	0	0	0	—	14:54
13Y. TreninC	0	0	0	0	3	0.35	4	1	0	0	14:18
91V. TarasenkoR	0	0	0	0	0	0.05	0	1	0	—	14:17
17M. FolignoL	0	0	0	0	1	0.13	2	1	0	—	13:47
55D.JiricekD	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	0	—	13:42
18V. HinostrozaC	0	0	0	0	1	0.26	2	0	0	0	13:37
39B. JonesC	0	0	0	0	1	0.09	3	2	0	88	11:40
22D. YurovR	1	0	1	0	2	0.22	0	1	0	38	10:39
19T. PitlickC	0	0	0	0	0	0.12	4	1	0	0	08:57

Minnesota Wild goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
32F. Gustavsson(W)	24	23	1	.958	2.54	+1.54	60:00

Season series

Tied 1-1

Oct 203@1this game
Mar 144@2Final

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Minnesota Wild at New York Rangers

1st period

3rd period

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score