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Avalanche at Sabres
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at Buffalo Sabres

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
▸3
Buffalo Sabres
1
FinalTV ALT, MSG-B·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Buffalo Sabres 3-1. The Avalanche scored first and never trailed. The Avalanche led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Cale Makar's goal at 4:32 of the second period, which took the Avalanche's chances from 47% to 64%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 3.5 to 2.3; shots on goal were COL 37, BUF 28. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 69% of the time. Scott Wedgewood stopped 27 of 28 (.964), 1.3 goals saved above expected; Alex Lyon stopped 34 of 37 (.919). Three stars: 1. Nathan MacKinnon (2 G), 2. Cale Makar (1 G, 1 A), 3. Martin Necas (2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    N. MacKinnon2 G
  2. ★★
    COL
    C. Makar1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    COL
    M. Necas2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
COLCOL110212015337
BUFBUF11301104128

Scoring

4 goals

1st period

  1. COL
    N. MacKinnon(3)
    M. Necas (4), B. Burns (2)
    backhandxG 0.05win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-0
    3:14
  2. BUF
    T. Thompson(1)
    A. Tuch (1), R. Dahlin (1)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +14 ptsVideo
    1-1
    16:32

2nd period

  1. COL
    C. Makar(1)
    V. Nichushkin (1)
    snapxG 0.25win prob +17 ptsVideo
    2-1
    4:32
  2. COL
    N. MacKinnon(4)
    M. Necas (5), C. Makar (4)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +14 ptsVideo
    3-1
    11:59

Penalties

COL 8 PIM·BUF 10 PIM

1st

  • 4:38COLJack Drury · Trippingdrawn by Jack Quinn2 min
  • 8:56COLserved by R. Colton · Too many men on the ice2 min
  • 13:42BUFRasmus Dahlin · Interferencedrawn by Martin Necas2 min
  • 18:15COLCale Makar · Slashingdrawn by Jason Zucker2 min

2nd

  • 8:54BUFAlex Tuch · Trippingdrawn by Cale Makar2 min
  • 11:38COLBrent Burns · Trippingdrawn by Alex Tuch2 min
  • 11:38BUFAlex Tuch · Embellishment2 min

3rd

  • 10:08BUFRasmus Dahlin · Interferencedrawn by Valeri Nichushkin2 min
  • 16:12BUFConor Timmins · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalCOL goalFinal: BUF 0%

Biggest swing: Cale Makar, 2nd 4:32 — COL 47% → 64%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Bryson · Missed · xG 0.26J. Doan · On goal · xG 0.16J. Kulich · On goal · xG 0.12A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.11T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.11J. Kulich · On goal · xG 0.10R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.10B. Byram · Missed · xG 0.10T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.09A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.09J. Kulich · Missed · xG 0.08A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.08B. Malenstyn · On goal · xG 0.08R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.08J. Doan · Missed · xG 0.07J. Kulich · Missed · xG 0.06A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.06T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.05J. Kulich · On goal · xG 0.04T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.04T. Thompson · Goal · xG 0.04B. Malenstyn · On goal · xG 0.03J. Doan · On goal · xG 0.03B. Byram · On goal · xG 0.03J. Doan · On goal · xG 0.03J. Doan · On goal · xG 0.03J. Dunne · Missed · xG 0.03T. Kozak · On goal · xG 0.02R. Dahlin · Missed · xG 0.02T. Kozak · Missed · xG 0.02T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.02A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.02R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.01T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.01A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.01J. Zucker · On goal · xG 0.01J. Bryson · On goal · xG 0.01O. Power · On goal · xG 0.01J. Kulich · On goal · xG 0.01R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.01C. Timmins · On goal · xG 0.01O. Power · Missed · xG 0.01P. Krebs · Missed · xG 0.00O. Power · On goal · xG 0.00O. Power · On goal · xG 0.00
BUF1 G · 2.3 xG · 45 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsBUF
3.53 G
All situations
1 G2.3
2.53 G
Even strength
1 G1.8
1.00 G
Power play
0 G0.5
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 96 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL69%31%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.45 – 2.29

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsBUF
37
Shots on goal
28
56%
Faceoffs
44%
0/4
Power play
0/3
8
Penalty minutes
10
20
Hits
11
21
Blocked shots
11
18
Giveaways
20
5
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8C. MakarD112+240.46322—25:22
7D. ToewsD000+120.05010—23:34
29N. MacKinnonC202+250.550105921:47
42J. MansonD000010.01220—18:54
88M. NecasC022+230.2910010018:27
84B. BurnsD011+110.06012—18:17
62A. LehkonenL000+100.00110—17:50
11B. NelsonC000+120.131405516:23
13V. NichushkinR011+110.07100—15:46
70S. MalinskiD000020.04120—15:21
18J. DruryC000-110.490226413:40
92G. LandeskogL000+120.2600010013:35
95V. OlofssonL000040.29100—13:31
20R. ColtonC000-130.3111010013:23
17P. KellyC000020.243003312:27
28I. SolovyovD000030.11230—12:04
94J. KivirantaL000000.00310—11:36
54G. BrindleyC000-110.10000010:06
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
41S. Wedgewood(W)28271.9642.30+1.3059:57

Season series

COL leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).