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Avalanche at Oilers
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at Edmonton Oilers

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
▸5
Edmonton Oilers
4
FinalTV KUSA, ALT·Rogers Place

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Edmonton Oilers 5-4. The Avalanche scored first and never trailed. It was tied 4-4 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Martin Necas's goal at 15:38 of the third period, which took the Avalanche's chances from 48% to 89%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 4.2 to 3.1; shots on goal were COL 31, EDM 27. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 62% of the time. Mackenzie Blackwood stopped 23 of 27 (.852), 0.9 goals below expected; Calvin Pickard stopped 17 of 19 (.895). Three stars: 1. Nathan MacKinnon (1 G, 3 A), 2. Cale Makar (2 G, 1 A), 3. Leon Draisaitl (2 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    N. MacKinnon1 G, 3 A
  2. ★★
    COL
    C. Makar2 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    EDM
    L. Draisaitl2 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
COLCOL31217112531
EDMEDM21121006427

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. COL
    N. MacKinnon(21)PPG
    C. Makar (41), A. Lehkonen (10)
    snapxG 0.08win prob +9 ptsVideo
    1-0
    9:48
  2. EDM
    L. Draisaitl(39)PPG
    R. Nugent-Hopkins (19), E. Bouchard (35)
    snapxG 0.13win prob +9 ptsVideo
    1-1
    10:39
  3. COL
    C. Makar(21)
    N. MacKinnon (64), D. Toews (20)
    snapxG 0.06win prob +14 ptsVideo
    2-1
    11:46
  4. EDM
    C. Perry(11)
    A. Henrique (9), K. Kapanen (5)
    backhandxG 0.13win prob +14 ptsVideo
    2-2
    12:22
  5. COL
    A. Lehkonen(23)
    N. MacKinnon (65), D. Toews (21)
    snapxG 0.16win prob +15 ptsVideo
    3-2
    18:08

2nd period

  1. COL
    C. Makar(22)SHG
    P. Kelly (8)
    snapxG 0.21win prob +20 ptsVideo
    4-2
    6:39
  2. EDM
    C. Perry(12)PPG
    J. Skinner (10), M. Ekholm (17)
    snapxG 0.37win prob +15 ptsVideo
    4-3
    7:48
  3. EDM
    L. Draisaitl(40)
    R. Nugent-Hopkins (20)
    snapxG 0.45win prob +18 ptsVideo
    4-4
    15:59

3rd period

  1. COL
    M. Necas(20)
    N. MacKinnon (66)
    snapxG 0.22win prob +41 ptsVideo
    5-4
    15:38

Penalties

COL 10 PIM·EDM 12 PIM

1st

  • 9:18EDMZach Hyman · Hookingdrawn by Sam Malinski2 min
  • 10:33COLArtturi Lehkonen · Slashingdrawn by Darnell Nurse2 min

2nd

  • 0:17EDMLeon Draisaitl · Trippingdrawn by Parker Kelly2 min
  • 3:38COLParker Kelly · Trippingdrawn by Connor McDavid2 min
  • 5:59COLMartin Necas · High stickingdrawn by Kasperi Kapanen2 min
  • 10:33COLArtturi Lehkonen · High stickingdrawn by Ty Emberson2 min
  • 15:05EDMEvan Bouchard · Hookingdrawn by Juuso Parssinen2 min
  • 15:05COLJuuso Parssinen · Holding the stickdrawn by Evan Bouchard2 min
  • 18:48EDMDarnell Nurse · Trippingdrawn by Jack Drury2 min

3rd

  • 5:21EDMEvan Bouchard · Roughingdrawn by Devon Toews2 min
  • 5:52EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins · Hookingdrawn by Nathan MacKinnon2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
EDM goalCOL goalFinal: EDM 0%

Biggest swing: Martin Necas, 3rd 15:38 — COL 48% → 89%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
L. Draisaitl · Goal · xG 0.45C. Perry · Goal · xG 0.37L. Draisaitl · On goal · xG 0.21C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.20C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.19M. Janmark · On goal · xG 0.14C. Perry · Goal · xG 0.13L. Draisaitl · Goal · xG 0.13V. Arvidsson · On goal · xG 0.13E. Bouchard · Missed · xG 0.12Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.10D. Nurse · Missed · xG 0.07V. Arvidsson · On goal · xG 0.07J. Klingberg · On goal · xG 0.06C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.06J. Skinner · Missed · xG 0.06C. McDavid · Missed · xG 0.06Z. Hyman · Missed · xG 0.06C. Perry · On goal · xG 0.05D. Nurse · On goal · xG 0.04C. McDavid · Missed · xG 0.04C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.04E. Bouchard · On goal · xG 0.04K. Kapanen · On goal · xG 0.03Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.03K. Kapanen · Missed · xG 0.03D. Nurse · Missed · xG 0.03M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.02Z. Hyman · Missed · xG 0.02E. Bouchard · On goal · xG 0.02T. Emberson · On goal · xG 0.02C. McDavid · Missed · xG 0.02V. Arvidsson · Missed · xG 0.02T. Emberson · On goal · xG 0.01M. Ekholm · Missed · xG 0.01J. Klingberg · On goal · xG 0.01C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.01V. Podkolzin · On goal · xG 0.00J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.00
EDM4 G · 3.1 xG · 39 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsEDM
4.25 G
All situations
4 G3.1
2.93 G
Even strength
2 G2.4
0.71 G
Power play
2 G0.7
0.21 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 82 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL62%38%EDM

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.74 – 3.01

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsEDM
31
Shots on goal
27
53%
Faceoffs
47%
1/5
Power play
2/4
10
Penalty minutes
12
15
Hits
9
19
Blocked shots
12
11
Giveaways
17
3
Takeaways
1

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8C. MakarD213+260.59020—29:11
7D. ToewsD022+320.07020—26:30
62A. LehkonenL112+240.48024—24:47
88M. NecasC101+230.30102023:54
29N. MacKinnonC134+271.250104622:18
49S. GirardD000+100.08100—21:23
18J. DruryC000-100.030205716:26
25L. O'ConnorR000+110.16010—15:03
70S. MalinskiD000000.00020—14:51
27J. DrouinL000010.10100—13:39
44C. de HaanD000-100.02110—13:02
17P. KellyC011+110.414425612:43
20R. ColtonC000-130.12210011:36
94J. KivirantaL000+100.050006711:24
28M. WoodL000-100.37000—09:52
37C. MittelstadtC000010.031008309:34
67K. MiddletonD000-110.02110—09:09
16J. ParssinenC000010.13302006:43
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
39M. Blackwood(W)27234.8523.11-0.8960:00

Season series

EDM leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).