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Oilers at Avalanche
NHL

Edmonton Oilers at Colorado Avalanche

NHL scoreboard
Edmonton Oilers
▸4
Colorado Avalanche
3
FinalTV ESPN, SN1·Ball Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Edmonton Oilers beat the Colorado Avalanche 4-3. The Oilers came back from three goals down. It was tied 3-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Evan Bouchard's goal at 13:05 of the third period, which took the Oilers' chances from 48% to 85%. Expected goals favored the Oilers, 3.5 to 2.4; shots on goal were EDM 28, COL 25. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Oilers win a replay of these chances 66% of the time. Stuart Skinner stopped 22 of 25 (.880), 0.6 goals below expected; Mackenzie Blackwood stopped 24 of 28 (.857). Three stars: 1. Evan Bouchard (1 G, 1 A), 2. Nathan MacKinnon (2 G), 3. Connor McDavid (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    EDM
    E. Bouchard1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    COL
    N. MacKinnon2 G
  3. ★★★
    EDM
    C. McDavid1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
EDMEDM11321114428
COLCOL3609010325

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. COL
    L. O'Connor(6)
    J. Kiviranta (5), M. Rantanen (37)
    wristxG 0.17win prob +12 ptsVideo
    0-1
    5:17
  2. COL
    N. MacKinnon(16)
    J. Drouin (8), C. de Haan (7)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +14 ptsVideo
    0-2
    10:04
  3. COL
    N. MacKinnon(17)
    D. Toews (16)
    wristxG 0.16win prob +10 ptsVideo
    0-3
    11:48
  4. EDM
    V. Arvidsson(6)
    D. Nurse (15), V. Podkolzin (12)
    slapxG 0.06win prob +9 ptsVideo
    1-3
    19:18

2nd period

  1. EDM
    B. Kulak(6)
    Unassisted
    slapxG 0.03win prob +15 ptsVideo
    2-3
    6:17
  2. EDM
    C. McDavid(20)
    L. Draisaitl (35), E. Bouchard (27)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +20 ptsVideo
    3-3
    14:49

3rd period

  1. EDM
    E. Bouchard(8)
    C. McDavid (44), L. Draisaitl (36)
    slapxG 0.04win prob +36 ptsVideo
    4-3
    13:05

Penalties

EDM 4 PIM·COL 8 PIM

1st

  • 7:20COLMikko Rantanen · Slashingdrawn by Corey Perry2 min

2nd

  • 8:31EDMDarnell Nurse · Holdingdrawn by Jason Polin2 min
  • 9:45COLNathan MacKinnon · Hookingdrawn by Brett Kulak2 min
  • 16:44COLJuuso Parssinen · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

3rd

  • 5:08EDMNoah Philp · High stickingdrawn by Ross Colton2 min
  • 8:23COLParker Kelly · Hookingdrawn by Leon Draisaitl2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
COL goalEDM goalFinal: COL 0%

Biggest swing: Evan Bouchard, 3rd 13:05 — EDM 48% → 85%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Innala · Missed · xG 0.27L. O'Connor · Goal · xG 0.17P. Kelly · Missed · xG 0.17C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.16N. MacKinnon · Goal · xG 0.16C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.13L. O'Connor · On goal · xG 0.13M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.10M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.10C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.09P. Kelly · On goal · xG 0.08N. MacKinnon · Goal · xG 0.08J. Manson · On goal · xG 0.06N. MacKinnon · Missed · xG 0.06C. Makar · Missed · xG 0.06N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.06J. Drouin · Missed · xG 0.05N. MacKinnon · Missed · xG 0.05A. Lehkonen · On goal · xG 0.05J. Polin · On goal · xG 0.04J. Polin · On goal · xG 0.04J. Drouin · On goal · xG 0.04J. Kiviranta · Missed · xG 0.04N. MacKinnon · Missed · xG 0.04C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.03P. Kelly · On goal · xG 0.03D. Toews · Missed · xG 0.03L. O'Connor · On goal · xG 0.02D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.02R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.02S. Girard · On goal · xG 0.02S. Girard · On goal · xG 0.01R. Colton · Missed · xG 0.01D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.01R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.01C. de Haan · On goal · xG 0.01J. Manson · On goal · xG 0.01
COL3 G · 2.4 xG · 37 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

EDMvsCOL
3.54 G
All situations
3 G2.4
2.64 G
Even strength
3 G1.8
1.00 G
Power play
0 G0.3
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 81 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
EDM66%34%COL

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.39 – 2.44

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

EDMvsCOL
28
Shots on goal
25
47%
Faceoffs
53%
0/4
Power play
0/2
4
Penalty minutes
8
11
Hits
14
11
Blocked shots
19
9
Giveaways
13
7
Takeaways
3

Box score

every player line
Edmonton Oilers skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
2E. BouchardD112+250.17010—25:24
29L. DraisaitlC022+130.650103824:31
18Z. HymanL000+170.99100—24:18
97C. McDavidC112+120.410007024:17
25D. NurseD011010.01232—22:26
14M. EkholmD000010.10010—20:58
93R. Nugent-HopkinsC000010.310003319:56
27B. KulakD101020.04010—19:03
49T. EmbersonD000000.00300—14:04
19A. HenriqueC000000.000005313:50
92V. PodkolzinR011-100.08310—13:25
28C. BrownR000-130.08200—12:23
33V. ArvidssonL101010.06010—12:18
51T. StecherD000000.01010—11:53
13M. JanmarkC000-100.00010010:41
90C. PerryR000+120.35000—09:55
53J. SkinnerL000+100.15000—08:56
48N. PhilpC000+100.140022007:42
Edmonton Oilers goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
74S. Skinner(W)25223.8802.45-0.5560:00

Season series

EDM leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).