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Hurricanes at Predators
NHL

Carolina Hurricanes at Nashville Predators

NHL scoreboard
Carolina Hurricanes
2
Nashville Predators
▸5
FinalTV FDSNSO·Bridgestone Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Nashville Predators beat the Carolina Hurricanes 5-2. The Predators scored first and never trailed. The Predators led 2-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jonathan Marchessault's goal at 11:45 of the second period, which took the Predators' chances from 72% to 87%. Expected goals favored the Predators, 3.5 to 1.6; shots on goal were CAR 27, NSH 25. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Predators win a replay of these chances 64% of the time. Dustin Tokarski stopped 20 of 24 (.833), 1.7 goals below expected; Juuse Saros stopped 25 of 27 (.926). Three stars: 1. Jonathan Marchessault (2 G, 1 A), 2. Filip Forsberg (3 A), 3. Mark Jankowski (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NSH
    J. Marchessault2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    NSH
    F. Forsberg3 A
  3. ★★★
    NSH
    M. Jankowski1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
CARCAR0806213227
NSHNSH1111935525

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. NSH
    S. Stamkos(10)
    F. Forsberg (18)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +14 ptsVideo
    0-1
    13:34

2nd period

  1. NSH
    J. Marchessault(11)
    T. Novak (4), L. Evangelista (10)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +16 ptsVideo
    0-2
    11:45

3rd period

  1. NSH
    R. O'Reilly(8)PPG
    F. Forsberg (19), J. Marchessault (12)
    wristxG 0.17win prob +4 ptsVideo
    0-3
    0:30
  2. NSH
    M. Jankowski(2)
    C. Sissons (1)
    snapxG 0.13win prob +2 ptsVideo
    0-4
    2:52
  3. CAR
    J. Staal(4)
    J. Martinook (9), W. Carrier (5)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +1 ptsVideo
    1-4
    4:37
  4. CAR
    S. Aho(11)
    S. Jarvis (12), J. Roslovic (6)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +5 ptsVideo
    2-4
    5:17
  5. NSH
    J. Marchessault(12)EN
    F. Forsberg (20)
    wristxG 0.95win prob +1 ptsVideo
    2-5
    16:48

Penalties

CAR 6 PIM·NSH 4 PIM

1st

  • 1:26CARWilliam Carrier · Holdingdrawn by Nick Blankenburg2 min
  • 1:26NSHNick Blankenburg · Holdingdrawn by William Carrier2 min
  • 10:06CARJackson Blake · Hookingdrawn by Jeremy Lauzon2 min
  • 17:31NSHLuke Evangelista · Holdingdrawn by Shayne Gostisbehere2 min

3rd

  • 0:22CARDmitry Orlov · Holding the stickdrawn by Zachary L'Heureux2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NSH goalCAR goalFinal: NSH 100%

Biggest swing: Jonathan Marchessault, 2nd 11:45 — NSH 72% → 87%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Marchessault · Goal · xG 0.95R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.26F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.20Z. L'Heureux · Missed · xG 0.17R. O'Reilly · Goal · xG 0.17M. Jankowski · Missed · xG 0.16M. Jankowski · Missed · xG 0.14J. Marchessault · Goal · xG 0.13M. Jankowski · Goal · xG 0.13M. Jankowski · On goal · xG 0.09M. Jankowski · Missed · xG 0.09Z. L'Heureux · On goal · xG 0.09T. Novak · Missed · xG 0.09G. Nyquist · On goal · xG 0.08L. Evangelista · On goal · xG 0.07Z. L'Heureux · On goal · xG 0.07S. Stamkos · Goal · xG 0.06J. Marchessault · On goal · xG 0.06R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.05B. Skjei · Missed · xG 0.04J. Marchessault · On goal · xG 0.04J. Marchessault · Missed · xG 0.04J. Marchessault · On goal · xG 0.03B. Skjei · On goal · xG 0.03A. Wilsby · On goal · xG 0.03F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.02M. Jankowski · On goal · xG 0.02Z. L'Heureux · On goal · xG 0.02Z. L'Heureux · Missed · xG 0.02J. Lauzon · On goal · xG 0.02A. Wilsby · On goal · xG 0.02R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.01M. McCarron · On goal · xG 0.01B. Skjei · On goal · xG 0.00B. Skjei · On goal · xG 0.00
NSH5 G · 3.5 xG · 35 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

CARvsNSH
1.62 G
All situations
4 G3.5
1.42 G
Even strength
3 G2.1
0.10 G
Power play
1 G0.2
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 73 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
CAR36%64%NSH

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.63 – 2.30

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

CARvsNSH
27
Shots on goal
25
49%
Faceoffs
51%
0/1
Power play
1/2
6
Penalty minutes
4
29
Hits
25
10
Blocked shots
15
24
Giveaways
18
9
Takeaways
3

Box score

every player line
Carolina Hurricanes skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
4S. GostisbehereD000010.05100—21:10
7D. OrlovD000-100.03002—19:59
5J. ChatfieldD000-120.03110—19:33
74J. SlavinD000-140.08020—19:21
26S. WalkerD000000.02320—19:01
8B. BurnsD000-100.00000—18:44
88M. NecasC000-140.140004017:16
20S. AhoC101-220.172106717:11
24S. JarvisR011-220.08310—16:52
96J. RoslovicC011-100.0200010016:25
11J. StaalC101040.461204016:19
37A. SvechnikovR000-110.01400—14:52
53J. BlakeR000010.10102—14:03
82J. KotkaniemiC000010.102004413:53
48J. MartinookL011020.08100—13:41
28W. CarrierL011000.04812—12:57
27T. JostC000010.091005712:35
50E. RobinsonL000020.14100—12:35
Carolina Hurricanes goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
34D. Tokarski(L)24204.8332.30-1.7059:25

Season series

NSH leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).