Islanders at Red Wings 1-2 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

New York Islanders

Detroit Red Wings

▸2

FinalTV FDSNDET, MSGSN2·Little Caesars Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Detroit Red Wings beat the New York Islanders 2-1. The Islanders scored first; the Red Wings answered. The Islanders led 1-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Lucas Raymond's goal at 19:08 of the third period, which took the Red Wings' chances from 52% to 98%. Expected goals favored the Red Wings, 2.3 to 1.5; shots on goal were NYI 23, DET 31. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Red Wings win a replay of these chances 68% of the time. Ilya Sorokin stopped 29 of 31 (.935); Alex Lyon stopped 22 of 23 (.957). Three stars: 1. Lucas Raymond (1 G), 2. Jonatan Berggren (1 G), 3. Simon Holmstrom (1 G).

Three stars

★
L. Raymond1 G
★★
J. Berggren1 G
★★★
S. Holmstrom1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NYI	19	06	08	123
DET	011	011	29	231

Scoring

3 goals

1st period

S. Holmstrom(3)
S. Mayfield (4)
tip-inxG 0.07win prob +12 ptsVideo
1-0
5:51

3rd period

J. Berggren(3)
J. Compher (4)
snapxG 0.15win prob +40 ptsVideo
1-1
15:14
L. Raymond(3)
D. Larkin (5), S. Edvinsson (6)
snapxG 0.16win prob +46 ptsVideo
1-2
19:08

Penalties

6 PIM·

2 PIM

1st

1:18Ryan Pulock · Hookingdrawn by Patrick Kane2 min

2nd

5:19Alexander Romanov · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
8:26Pierre Engvall · Slashingdrawn by Lucas Raymond2 min

3rd

3:41Christian Fischer · Trippingdrawn by Scott Mayfield2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: DET

100%

Biggest swing: Lucas Raymond, 3rd 19:08 — DET 52% → 98%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

2 G · 2.3 xG · 46 att

←

attacks

attacks →

1 G · 1.5 xG · 35 att DET

2 G · 2.3 xG · 46 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

1.51 G
All situations: 2 G2.3; 1.21 G
Even strength: 2 G1.8; 0.30 G
Power play: 0 G0.5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 81 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

32%68%

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.45 – 2.34

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

23
Shots on goal: 31; 53%
Faceoffs: 47%; 0/1
Power play: 0/3; 6
Penalty minutes: 2; 25
Hits: 29; 18
Blocked shots: 13; 18
Giveaways: 10; 2
Takeaways: 5

Box score

every player line

New York Islanders skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
8N. DobsonD	0	0	0	-1	2	0.07	2	3	0	—	22:37
28A. RomanovD	0	0	0	-1	1	0.01	2	1	2	—	21:00
6R. PulockD	0	0	0	-1	0	0.02	5	1	2	—	20:56
24S. MayfieldD	0	1	1	+1	0	0.00	6	1	0	—	20:55
44J. PageauC	0	0	0	-1	3	0.15	3	0	0	58	20:34
14B. HorvatC	0	0	0	-1	1	0.08	1	2	0	63	20:11
36I. GeorgeD	0	0	0	-1	2	0.02	1	1	0	—	19:31
21K. PalmieriC	0	0	0	-1	2	0.40	1	1	0	50	18:52
29B. NelsonC	0	0	0	0	2	0.10	0	1	0	54	18:40
27A. LeeL	0	0	0	-1	2	0.17	0	2	0	—	17:27
7M. TsyplakovR	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	1	0	100	16:21
10S. HolmstromR	1	0	1	+1	1	0.13	0	2	0	—	15:53
53C. CizikasC	0	0	0	0	1	0.09	1	0	0	38	13:20
25D. CholowskiD	0	0	0	+1	2	0.03	0	1	0	—	13:17
18P. EngvallL	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	2	—	12:43
32K. MacLeanC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	0	40	08:04
26O. WahlstromR	0	0	0	0	3	0.16	0	0	0	—	07:38
17M. MartinL	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	2	1	0	—	06:44

New York Islanders goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
30I. Sorokin(L)	31	29	2	.935	2.35	+0.35	59:17

Season series

DET leads 3-0

Oct 221@0Final
Nov 211@2this game
Nov 254@2Final

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

New York Islanders at Detroit Red Wings

1st period

3rd period

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score