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Senators at Avalanche
NHL

Ottawa Senators at Colorado Avalanche

NHL scoreboard
Ottawa Senators
4
Colorado Avalanche
▸5
FinalTV ALT, TSN5·Ball Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Ottawa Senators 5-4. The Avalanche scored first and never trailed. The Avalanche led 2-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Logan O'Connor's goal at 13:29 of the third period, which took the Avalanche's chances from 52% to 88%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 4.6 to 2.9; shots on goal were OTT 30, COL 32. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 67% of the time. Anton Forsberg stopped 25 of 29 (.862), 0.6 goals below expected; Justus Annunen stopped 26 of 30 (.867), 1.1 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Casey Mittelstadt (3 A), 2. Nikolai Kovalenko (1 G), 3. Logan O'Connor (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    C. Mittelstadt3 A
  2. ★★
    COL
    N. Kovalenko1 G
  3. ★★★
    COL
    L. O'Connor1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
OTTOTT0608416430
COLCOL18111313532

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. COL
    N. Kovalenko(1)
    C. Mittelstadt (5), N. MacKinnon (11)
    snapxG 0.19win prob +15 ptsVideo
    0-1
    19:52

2nd period

  1. COL
    J. Manson(1)
    C. Mittelstadt (6), S. Girard (4)
    backhandxG 0.01win prob +16 ptsVideo
    0-2
    19:42

3rd period

  1. OTT
    B. Tkachuk(4)
    T. Kleven (1), N. Cousins (1)
    wristxG 0.23win prob +13 ptsVideo
    1-2
    9:15
  2. OTT
    N. Cousins(1)
    B. Tkachuk (6), T. Stützle (7)
    backhandxG 0.46win prob +32 ptsVideo
    2-2
    11:23
  3. COL
    L. O'Connor(1)
    C. Mittelstadt (7), S. Girard (5)
    snapxG 0.22win prob +36 ptsVideo
    2-3
    13:29
  4. COL
    R. Colton(8)
    C. Makar (13)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +9 ptsVideo
    2-4
    15:01
  5. OTT
    C. Giroux(4)
    D. Batherson (5), T. Chabot (3)
    snapxG 0.10win prob +6 ptsVideo
    3-4
    16:48
  6. COL
    N. MacKinnon(4)EN
    M. Rantanen (10)
    wristxG 0.66win prob +5 ptsVideo
    3-5
    18:45
  7. OTT
    C. Giroux(5)
    J. Norris (4), B. Tkachuk (7)
    slapxG 0.08Video
    4-5
    19:50

Penalties

OTT 2 PIM·COL 2 PIM

1st

  • 3:17OTTMichael Amadio · Trippingdrawn by Nikolai Kovalenko2 min
  • 11:37COLMikko Rantanen · Holding the stickdrawn by Jake Sanderson2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
COL goalOTT goalFinal: COL 100%

Biggest swing: Logan O'Connor, 3rd 13:29 — COL 52% → 88%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
N. MacKinnon · Goal · xG 0.66C. Wagner · Missed · xG 0.30L. O'Connor · Goal · xG 0.22I. Ivan · On goal · xG 0.20M. Wood · Missed · xG 0.20N. Kovalenko · Goal · xG 0.19D. Toews · Missed · xG 0.17R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.16R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.15N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.14S. Malinski · Missed · xG 0.14R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.14R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.12L. O'Connor · On goal · xG 0.12S. Malinski · Missed · xG 0.11C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.10D. Toews · Missed · xG 0.09P. Kelly · On goal · xG 0.09C. Wagner · On goal · xG 0.08M. Wood · On goal · xG 0.08C. Mittelstadt · Missed · xG 0.08D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.07M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.07C. Mittelstadt · Missed · xG 0.06N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.06L. O'Connor · Missed · xG 0.06C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.06M. Stienburg · Missed · xG 0.06R. Colton · Goal · xG 0.06N. Kovalenko · Missed · xG 0.05P. Kelly · Missed · xG 0.05M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.05R. Colton · Missed · xG 0.05R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.04N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.04C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.04M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.04C. Mittelstadt · Missed · xG 0.04S. Malinski · Missed · xG 0.03M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.03C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.02C. de Haan · Missed · xG 0.02J. Manson · Goal · xG 0.02N. Kovalenko · Missed · xG 0.01M. Wood · On goal · xG 0.01C. Wagner · On goal · xG 0.01M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.00I. Ivan · On goal · xG 0.00N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.00
COL5 G · 4.6 xG · 49 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

OTTvsCOL
2.94 G
All situations
4 G4.6
2.64 G
Even strength
4 G3.5
0.30 G
Power play
0 G0.5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 95 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
OTT33%67%COL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.84 – 3.90

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

OTTvsCOL
30
Shots on goal
32
56%
Faceoffs
44%
0/1
Power play
0/1
2
Penalty minutes
2
38
Hits
20
23
Blocked shots
8
15
Giveaways
14
4
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Ottawa Senators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
85J. SandersonD000-100.00100—24:31
72T. ChabotD011-130.10130—22:43
9J. NorrisC011030.162005020:58
3N. JensenD000000.02350—20:38
28C. GirouxR202-170.550106720:37
19D. BathersonR011-110.32200—20:25
23T. HamonicD000-130.05530—19:54
18T. StützleC011010.191106719:53
7B. TkachukL123+150.65300—18:37
71R. GreigC000-100.071107016:04
22M. AmadioR000-120.084225015:24
43T. KlevenD011010.08210—15:20
24J. Bernard-DockerD000000.01330—14:40
73N. GregorL000020.1340010013:23
21N. CousinsC112+110.46100011:51
81A. GaudetteR000010.041104410:23
17Z. MacEwenR000000.00000—07:30
51C. ReinhardtL000000.00420—07:15
Ottawa Senators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31A. Forsberg(L)29254.8623.40-0.6053:08
35L. Ullmark2201.0000.53+0.5304:46

Season series

COL leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).