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Capitals at Sabres
NHL

Washington Capitals at Buffalo Sabres

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Washington Capitals
2
Buffalo Sabres
▸4
FinalTV MSG-B, MNMT·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the Washington Capitals 4-2. The Sabres scored first and never trailed. The Sabres led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Alex Tuch's goal at 12:37 of the second period, which took the Sabres' chances from 72% to 88%. Expected goals favored the Sabres, 3.2 to 2.3; shots on goal were WSH 24, BUF 17. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Capitals win a replay of these chances 66% of the time. Charlie Lindgren stopped 13 of 16 (.813), 1.6 goals below expected; Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen stopped 22 of 24 (.917). Three stars: 1. Alex Tuch (1 G), 2. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (22 saves, .917), 3. Zach Benson (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    A. Tuch1 G
  2. ★★
    BUF
    U. Luukkonen22 saves, .917
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    Z. Benson1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
WSHWSH0111419224
BUFBUF151626417

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    Z. Benson(10)
    J. Skinner (22), P. Krebs (13)
    tip-inxG 0.05win prob +15 ptsVideo
    0-1
    19:00

2nd period

  1. BUF
    A. Tuch(22)
    H. Jokiharju (15), T. Thompson (27)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +16 ptsVideo
    0-2
    12:37
  2. WSH
    C. McMichael(18)
    M. Pacioretty (18), J. Carlson (41)
    tip-inxG 0.10win prob +15 ptsVideo
    1-2
    14:36

3rd period

  1. BUF
    J. Quinn(8)
    C. Clifton (14), J. Greenway (16)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +14 ptsVideo
    1-3
    9:46
  2. BUF
    D. Cozens(16)EN
    J. Greenway (17), H. Jokiharju (16)
    wristxG 0.55
    1-4
    17:43
  3. WSH
    T. Wilson(18)
    J. Carlson (42), A. Ovechkin (34)
    tip-inxG 0.08Video
    2-4
    19:00

Penalties

WSH 12 PIM·BUF 12 PIM

3rd

  • 0:16WSHTom Wilson · Trippingdrawn by Jacob Bryson2 min
  • 20:00BUFRasmus Dahlin · Interferencedrawn by T.J. Oshie2 min
  • 20:00WSHMax Pacioretty · Fightingdrawn by Tage Thompson5 min
  • 20:00BUFTage Thompson · Fightingdrawn by Max Pacioretty5 min
  • 20:00WSHTom Wilson · Fightingdrawn by Jordan Greenway5 min
  • 20:00BUFJordan Greenway · Fightingdrawn by Tom Wilson5 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalWSH goalFinal: BUF 100%

Biggest swing: Alex Tuch, 2nd 12:37 — BUF 72% → 88%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
D. Cozens · Goal · xG 0.55J. Skinner · Missed · xG 0.46T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.46R. Dahlin · Missed · xG 0.36A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.22J. Peterka · Missed · xG 0.17T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.12J. Greenway · On goal · xG 0.11J. Quinn · Goal · xG 0.10J. Skinner · Missed · xG 0.09R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.08J. Peterka · On goal · xG 0.07A. Tuch · Goal · xG 0.06Z. Benson · Goal · xG 0.05J. Skinner · Missed · xG 0.05K. Clague · On goal · xG 0.04T. Jost · On goal · xG 0.04T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.03C. Clifton · Missed · xG 0.03T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.02D. Cozens · Missed · xG 0.02J. Greenway · On goal · xG 0.02T. Jost · On goal · xG 0.02A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.02O. Power · On goal · xG 0.02R. Dahlin · Missed · xG 0.01R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.01R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.01K. Clague · Missed · xG 0.01C. Clifton · Missed · xG 0.01A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.00
BUF4 G · 3.2 xG · 31 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

WSHvsBUF
2.32 G
All situations
3 G3.2
2.22 G
Even strength
3 G1.3
0.10 G
Power play
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 74 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
WSH66%34%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.22 – 1.42

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

WSHvsBUF
24
Shots on goal
17
70%
Faceoffs
30%
0/0
Power play
0/1
12
Penalty minutes
12
37
Hits
25
16
Blocked shots
13
2
Giveaways
4
2
Takeaways
8

Box score

every player line
Washington Capitals skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
74J. CarlsonD022010.18000—24:54
3N. JensenD000-120.03130—24:36
27A. AlexeyevD000020.11330—21:21
42M. FehérváryD000-100.00320—20:38
17D. StromeC000-110.160208820:00
8A. OvechkinL011-130.06200—17:21
77T. OshieR000-110.34310—17:06
43T. WilsonR101020.18317—16:51
57T. van RiemsdykD000-210.05000—16:49
24C. McMichaelL101030.231005515:50
21A. ProtasL000020.47110—15:25
67M. PaciorettyL011-130.27825—15:19
15S. MilanoL000-100.00000—14:28
29H. LapierreC000-110.091102913:19
26N. DowdC000010.0130010012:10
47B. MalenstynL000000.08300—12:10
96N. Aube-KubelR000010.04500—12:07
2V. IorioD000000.00000—09:58
Washington Capitals goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
79C. Lindgren(L)16133.8131.42-1.5857:38

Season series

BUF leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).