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Maple Leafs at Oilers
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Edmonton Oilers

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
2
Edmonton Oilers
▸4
FinalTV TVAS, SNW·Rogers Place

Recap

written from the game data

The Edmonton Oilers beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 4-2. The Oilers came back from two goals down. The Maple Leafs led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Ryan McLeod's goal at 16:55 of the third period, which took the Oilers' chances from 52% to 93%. Expected goals favored the Oilers, 4.2 to 3.2; shots on goal were TOR 27, EDM 32. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Oilers win a replay of these chances 54% of the time. Martin Jones stopped 28 of 31 (.903), 0.5 goals saved above expected; Stuart Skinner stopped 25 of 27 (.926), 1.2 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Ryan McLeod (1 G, 1 A), 2. Derek Ryan (1 G), 3. Auston Matthews (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    EDM
    R. McLeod1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    EDM
    D. Ryan1 G
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    A. Matthews1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR1711406227
EDMEDM01211238432

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    A. Matthews(34)
    M. Marner (29), P. Holmberg (4)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +11 ptsVideo
    1-0
    0:27

2nd period

  1. TOR
    M. Rielly(7)
    A. Matthews (16), P. Holmberg (5)
    wristxG 0.21win prob +18 ptsVideo
    2-0
    10:52
  2. EDM
    L. Draisaitl(21)
    E. Bouchard (31), M. Ekholm (14)
    backhandxG 0.02win prob +17 ptsVideo
    2-1
    15:41

3rd period

  1. EDM
    D. Ryan(4)
    R. McLeod (10), M. Janmark (5)
    snapxG 0.20win prob +25 ptsVideo
    2-2
    2:27
  2. EDM
    R. McLeod(8)
    C. McDavid (42), C. Ceci (11)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +41 ptsVideo
    2-3
    16:55
  3. EDM
    E. Bouchard(11)EN
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.66win prob +5 ptsVideo
    2-4
    18:27

Penalties

TOR 2 PIM·EDM 2 PIM

1st

  • 8:39TORBobby McMann · Hookingdrawn by Connor McDavid2 min

2nd

  • 1:20EDMDarnell Nurse · Cross checkingdrawn by John Tavares2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
EDM goalTOR goalFinal: EDM 100%

Biggest swing: Ryan McLeod, 3rd 16:55 — EDM 52% → 93%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
E. Bouchard · Goal · xG 0.66Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.30Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.23L. Draisaitl · Missed · xG 0.21D. Ryan · Goal · xG 0.21E. Kane · Missed · xG 0.18E. Kane · On goal · xG 0.17C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.17J. Hamblin · On goal · xG 0.14C. Brown · On goal · xG 0.12W. Foegele · Missed · xG 0.11C. Brown · On goal · xG 0.10E. Kane · On goal · xG 0.10L. Draisaitl · On goal · xG 0.09Z. Hyman · Missed · xG 0.09R. Nugent-Hopkins · Missed · xG 0.08A. Erne · On goal · xG 0.08Z. Hyman · Missed · xG 0.07R. Nugent-Hopkins · On goal · xG 0.07E. Kane · On goal · xG 0.07R. McLeod · Goal · xG 0.07Z. Hyman · Missed · xG 0.06C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.06E. Kane · On goal · xG 0.06D. Ryan · Missed · xG 0.05W. Foegele · Missed · xG 0.05C. McDavid · Missed · xG 0.05C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.05W. Foegele · Missed · xG 0.04J. Hamblin · Missed · xG 0.04R. Nugent-Hopkins · Missed · xG 0.04R. Nugent-Hopkins · Missed · xG 0.04C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.04Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.04Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.03C. Brown · On goal · xG 0.03C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.03L. Draisaitl · On goal · xG 0.03M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.02L. Draisaitl · Goal · xG 0.02M. Ekholm · Missed · xG 0.01D. Ryan · On goal · xG 0.01D. Nurse · On goal · xG 0.01D. Nurse · Missed · xG 0.01C. Ceci · Missed · xG 0.01E. Kane · On goal · xG 0.01E. Kane · On goal · xG 0.01R. McLeod · Missed · xG 0.01C. Ceci · Missed · xG 0.01E. Kane · Missed · xG 0.01M. Janmark · Missed · xG 0.01W. Foegele · On goal · xG 0.00M. Janmark · On goal · xG 0.00
EDM4 G · 4.2 xG · 53 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsEDM
3.22 G
All situations
3 G4.2
3.02 G
Even strength
3 G2.9
0.20 G
Power play
0 G0.6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 94 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR46%54%EDM

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.19 – 3.46

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsEDM
27
Shots on goal
32
48%
Faceoffs
52%
0/1
Power play
0/1
2
Penalty minutes
2
27
Hits
32
22
Blocked shots
9
9
Giveaways
22
9
Takeaways
13

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
44M. RiellyD101-150.36230—25:33
16M. MarnerR011000.07030—25:05
34A. MatthewsC112-120.272104123:03
22J. McCabeD000-100.10430—22:30
78T. BrodieD000+110.07030—20:42
2S. BenoitD000-200.00430—19:48
29P. HolmbergR022+110.18010—18:41
88W. NylanderR000-160.69000—18:38
91J. TavaresC000-250.421006018:29
19C. JarnkrokC000-110.08200015:15
37T. LiljegrenD000000.00220—15:11
55M. GiordanoD000010.13020—12:47
59T. BertuzziL000-200.17100—12:10
64D. KampfC000020.180106011:21
11M. DomiC000-100.000003311:19
18N. GregorL000020.48400—10:15
23M. KniesL000-100.00400—09:41
74B. McMannC000010.04102009:15
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31M. Jones(L)31283.9033.53+0.5358:17

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).