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Edmonton Oilers at Detroit Red Wings

Final/OTTV BSDET, SNW·Little Caesars Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Edmonton Oilers beat the Detroit Red Wings 3-2 in overtime, Darnell Nurse scoring at 1:20. The lead changed hands 2 times. It was tied 0-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Darnell Nurse's goal at 1:20 of overtime, which took the Oilers' chances from 49% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Oilers, 5.0 to 2.3; shots on goal were EDM 47, DET 18. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Oilers win a replay of these chances 85% of the time. Calvin Pickard stopped 16 of 18 (.889); Alex Lyon stopped 44 of 47 (.936), 2.0 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Darnell Nurse (1 G), 2. Alex Lyon (44 saves, .936), 3. Zach Hyman (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    EDM
    D. Nurse1 G
  2. ★★
    DET
    A. Lyon44 saves, .936
  3. ★★★
    EDM
    Z. Hyman1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
EDMEDM01601121911347
DETDET06052700218

Scoring

5 goals

3rd period

  1. DET
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.02win prob +25 ptsVideo
    0-1
    3:34
  2. EDM
    wristxG 0.24win prob +30 ptsVideo
    1-1
    9:12
  3. EDM
    wristxG 0.11win prob +38 ptsVideo
    2-1
    14:00
  4. DET
    pokexG 0.72win prob +42 ptsVideo
    2-2
    16:03

Overtime

  1. EDM
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.19win prob +51 ptsVideo
    3-2
    1:20

Penalties

EDM 8 PIM·DET 6 PIM

1st

  • 15:25DETBen Chiarot · Holdingdrawn by Mattias Janmark2 min

2nd

  • 8:40DETMichael Rasmussen · Roughingdrawn by Darnell Nurse2 min
  • 8:40EDMDarnell Nurse · Roughingdrawn by Michael Rasmussen2 min
  • 9:45EDMEvan Bouchard · Holdingdrawn by Dylan Larkin2 min
  • 12:33EDMBrett Kulak · Slashingdrawn by Christian Fischer2 min
  • 17:45DETserved by D. Perron · Too many men on the ice2 min

3rd

  • 3:34EDMserved by C. McDavid · Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DET goalEDM goalFinal: DET 0%

Biggest swing: Darnell Nurse, OT 1:20 — EDM 49% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
O. Maatta · Goal · xG 0.72A. DeBrincat · Missed · xG 0.19D. Larkin · Missed · xG 0.15C. Fischer · On goal · xG 0.14A. DeBrincat · Missed · xG 0.12L. Raymond · Missed · xG 0.09L. Raymond · On goal · xG 0.09P. Kane · Missed · xG 0.08P. Kane · Missed · xG 0.08P. Kane · Missed · xG 0.07R. Fabbri · On goal · xG 0.07P. Kane · On goal · xG 0.07C. Fischer · Missed · xG 0.06L. Raymond · On goal · xG 0.04P. Kane · On goal · xG 0.04C. Fischer · On goal · xG 0.03P. Kane · On goal · xG 0.03J. Veleno · Missed · xG 0.03L. Raymond · On goal · xG 0.02A. Copp · Goal · xG 0.02D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.02S. Gostisbehere · On goal · xG 0.02M. Seider · Missed · xG 0.02A. DeBrincat · Missed · xG 0.01S. Gostisbehere · On goal · xG 0.01J. Petry · Missed · xG 0.01J. Petry · On goal · xG 0.01J. Petry · On goal · xG 0.01C. Fischer · On goal · xG 0.01S. Gostisbehere · Missed · xG 0.00A. DeBrincat · On goal · xG 0.00M. Rasmussen · Missed · xG 0.00
DET2 G · 2.3 xG · 32 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

EDMvsDET
5.03 G
All situations
2 G2.3
3.83 G
Even strength
2 G1.8
0.80 G
Power play
0 G0.5
0.40 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 94 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
EDM85%15%DET

Flurry-adjusted xG 4.71 – 2.24

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

EDMvsDET
47
Shots on goal
18
54%
Faceoffs
46%
0/2
Power play
0/3
8
Penalty minutes
6
9
Hits
8
24
Blocked shots
19
4
Giveaways
11
1
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Edmonton Oilers skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
14M. EkholmD011+240.67140—24:55
2E. BouchardD000+220.04122—23:25
97C. McDavidC101+270.982105323:06
25D. NurseD101-110.26052—22:52
93R. Nugent-HopkinsC011+350.760002522:17
5C. CeciD000-230.09030—21:11
18Z. HymanL112+360.71010—20:45
29L. DraisaitlC000030.410308019:05
73V. DesharnaisD000030.13220—16:19
91E. KaneL000-210.19200—15:27
37W. FoegeleL000020.17100—14:38
10D. RyanC000-210.040003314:03
28C. BrownR000-230.360003313:47
71R. McLeodC000040.130005013:46
27B. KulakD000010.01012—11:39
13M. JanmarkC000010.03000008:57
21A. ErneL000000.00000—04:59
57J. HamblinL000000.0002010004:49
Edmonton Oilers goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
30C. Pickard(W)18162.8892.25+0.2561:20

Season series

EDM leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).