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Predators at Maple Leafs
NHL

Nashville Predators at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Nashville Predators
0
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸4
FinalTV NHLN, BSSO·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Nashville Predators 4-0. The Maple Leafs scored first and never trailed. The Maple Leafs led 2-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was David Kampf's goal at 14:15 of the second period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 53% to 73%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 4.2 to 1.6; shots on goal were NSH 18, TOR 37. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 86% of the time. Kevin Lankinen stopped 33 of 36 (.917), 0.9 goals saved above expected; Ilya Samsonov stopped 18 of 18 (1.000), 1.6 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Ilya Samsonov (18 saves, 1.000), 2. Auston Matthews (2 G), 3. David Kampf (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    I. Samsonov18 saves, 1.000
  2. ★★
    TOR
    A. Matthews2 G
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    D. Kampf1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NSHNSH070605018
TORTOR09213215437

Scoring

4 goals

2nd period

  1. TOR
    D. Kampf(3)
    C. Timmins (2)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +20 ptsVideo
    0-1
    14:15
  2. TOR
    A. Matthews(17)
    W. Nylander (18), M. Rielly (15)
    backhandxG 0.42win prob +16 ptsVideo
    0-2
    17:57

3rd period

  1. TOR
    A. Matthews(18)PPG
    W. Nylander (19), J. Tavares (16)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +1 ptsVideo
    0-3
    16:49
  2. TOR
    N. Gregor(4)EN
    C. Jarnkrok (8)
    wristxG 0.29Video
    0-4
    18:29

Penalties

NSH 15 PIM·TOR 11 PIM

1st

  • 11:57TORJake McCabe · Hookingdrawn by Roman Josi2 min
  • 17:15NSHFilip Forsberg · Trippingdrawn by Jake McCabe2 min

2nd

  • 2:25NSHAlexandre Carrier · Trippingdrawn by David Kampf2 min
  • 8:15NSHLuke Schenn · Interferencedrawn by Matthew Knies2 min
  • 18:05TORJohn Tavares · Trippingdrawn by Ryan McDonagh2 min

3rd

  • 4:55NSHJeremy Lauzon · Slashingdrawn by Calle Jarnkrok2 min
  • 14:04TORJake McCabe · Fightingdrawn by Kiefer Sherwood5 min
  • 14:04NSHKiefer Sherwood · Fightingdrawn by Jake McCabe5 min
  • 15:38NSHRyan McDonagh · Hookingdrawn by Matthew Knies2 min
  • 17:28TORSimon Benoit · Hookingdrawn by Juuso Parssinen2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalNSH goalFinal: TOR 100%

Biggest swing: David Kampf, 2nd 14:15 — TOR 53% → 73%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Matthews · Goal · xG 0.42C. Jarnkrok · On goal · xG 0.32N. Gregor · Goal · xG 0.29M. Knies · On goal · xG 0.25J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.23N. Gregor · On goal · xG 0.19C. Jarnkrok · On goal · xG 0.18T. Bertuzzi · On goal · xG 0.16D. Kampf · Goal · xG 0.15J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.15M. Marner · Missed · xG 0.12J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.11W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.10W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.10A. Matthews · Goal · xG 0.10W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.09D. Kampf · On goal · xG 0.09A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.08R. Reaves · Missed · xG 0.08C. Jarnkrok · On goal · xG 0.08W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.08J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.07J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.07T. Bertuzzi · Missed · xG 0.07C. Jarnkrok · Missed · xG 0.06J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.06M. Domi · On goal · xG 0.05M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.05A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.04C. Jarnkrok · On goal · xG 0.04W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.04M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.03A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.03D. Kampf · On goal · xG 0.03N. Gregor · On goal · xG 0.03M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.03C. Timmins · On goal · xG 0.03D. Kampf · On goal · xG 0.02A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.02N. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.01J. McCabe · On goal · xG 0.01N. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.01M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.01S. Benoit · On goal · xG 0.00J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.00D. Kampf · On goal · xG 0.00
TOR4 G · 4.2 xG · 46 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NSHvsTOR
1.60 G
All situations
3 G4.2
1.00 G
Even strength
2 G2.5
0.50 G
Power play
1 G1.2
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 75 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NSH14%86%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.53 – 3.81

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NSHvsTOR
18
Shots on goal
37
44%
Faceoffs
56%
0/3
Power play
1/5
15
Penalty minutes
11
36
Hits
31
16
Blocked shots
15
14
Giveaways
12
9
Takeaways
15

Box score

every player line
Nashville Predators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
59R. JosiD000-300.00120—25:49
27R. McDonaghD000-210.12122—21:42
90R. O'ReillyC000-150.302003820:22
22T. BarrieD000-110.17010—18:57
10C. SissonsC000020.283005017:12
9F. ForsbergL000-110.2810210016:47
2L. SchennD000000.00432—16:28
3J. LauzonD000000.00512—16:17
45A. CarrierD000020.07042—16:00
14G. NyquistR000-110.10100—15:39
36C. SmithR000010.00810—15:16
13Y. TreninC000000.0020010015:08
82T. NovakC000-100.100005014:20
75J. ParssinenC000-220.052003313:58
26P. TomasinoR000-200.00120—12:33
77L. EvangelistaR000010.00100—12:18
8C. GlassC000-210.071004012:17
44K. SherwoodL000000.00305—11:11
Nashville Predators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
32K. Lankinen(L)36333.9173.86+0.8658:35

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).