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Maple Leafs at Predators
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Nashville Predators

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
2
Nashville Predators
▸3
Final/OTTV NHLN, BSSO·Bridgestone Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Nashville Predators beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 3-2 in overtime, Roman Josi scoring at 2:13. The Maple Leafs scored first; the Predators answered. It was tied 2-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Roman Josi's goal at 2:13 of overtime, which took the Predators' chances from 51% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 3.0 to 2.3; shots on goal were TOR 35, NSH 24. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 62% of the time. Ilya Samsonov stopped 21 of 24 (.875), 0.7 goals below expected; Juuse Saros stopped 33 of 35 (.943), 1.0 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Roman Josi (1 G, 1 A), 2. Ryan O'Reilly (2 G), 3. Filip Forsberg (2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NSH
    R. Josi1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    NSH
    R. O'Reilly2 G
  3. ★★★
    NSH
    F. Forsberg2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
TORTOR11211301000235
NSHNSH16190811324

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    W. Nylander(6)PPG
    A. Matthews (3), M. Marner (5)
    slapxG 0.19win prob +10 ptsVideo
    1-0
    13:32
  2. NSH
    R. O'Reilly(3)PPG
    R. Josi (4), F. Forsberg (5)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-1
    15:05

2nd period

  1. TOR
    M. Giordano(1)
    D. Kampf (2)
    wristxG 0.16win prob +20 ptsVideo
    2-1
    12:46
  2. NSH
    R. O'Reilly(4)PPG
    F. Forsberg (6), L. Evangelista (3)
    tip-inxG 0.12win prob +18 ptsVideo
    2-2
    15:08

Overtime

  1. NSH
    R. Josi(1)
    L. Evangelista (4), T. Novak (2)
    snapxG 0.13win prob +49 ptsVideo
    2-3
    2:13

Penalties

TOR 10 PIM·NSH 8 PIM

1st

  • 12:46NSHFilip Forsberg · Slashingdrawn by Auston Matthews2 min
  • 14:11TORTJ Brodie · Roughingdrawn by Kiefer Sherwood2 min
  • 17:23TORJohn Klingberg · Trippingdrawn by Juuso Parssinen2 min

2nd

  • 14:06TORCalle Jarnkrok · Trippingdrawn by Colton Sissons2 min
  • 15:30NSHColton Sissons · Slashingdrawn by John Tavares2 min

3rd

  • 2:18TORserved by R. Reaves · Too many men on the ice2 min
  • 7:53NSHAlexandre Carrier · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 10:13TORserved by T. Bertuzzi · Too many men on the ice2 min
  • 11:22NSHTyson Barrie · Trippingdrawn by Auston Matthews2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NSH goalTOR goalFinal: NSH 100%

Biggest swing: Roman Josi, OT 2:13 — NSH 51% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
K. Sherwood · On goal · xG 0.16R. Josi · Goal · xG 0.13Y. Trenin · On goal · xG 0.13L. Evangelista · Missed · xG 0.12K. Sherwood · Missed · xG 0.12R. O'Reilly · Goal · xG 0.12R. O'Reilly · Goal · xG 0.12L. Evangelista · Missed · xG 0.10Y. Trenin · On goal · xG 0.10F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.10J. Parssinen · On goal · xG 0.09R. O'Reilly · Missed · xG 0.08R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.08R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.07L. Evangelista · On goal · xG 0.07C. Sissons · On goal · xG 0.07G. Nyquist · Missed · xG 0.07F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.07R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.05Y. Trenin · On goal · xG 0.05T. Barrie · On goal · xG 0.04Y. Trenin · Missed · xG 0.04F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.03F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.03C. Smith · On goal · xG 0.03F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.03R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.03R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.03K. Sherwood · On goal · xG 0.02R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.02R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.02R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.02A. Carrier · On goal · xG 0.01T. Barrie · On goal · xG 0.01Y. Trenin · Missed · xG 0.01Y. Trenin · On goal · xG 0.01K. Sherwood · Missed · xG 0.01D. Fabbro · Missed · xG 0.01D. Fabbro · Missed · xG 0.01R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.01T. Novak · Missed · xG 0.01T. Barrie · Missed · xG 0.00
NSH3 G · 2.3 xG · 42 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsNSH
3.02 G
All situations
3 G2.3
2.01 G
Even strength
1 G1.7
0.81 G
Power play
2 G0.5
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 88 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR62%38%NSH

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.99 – 2.33

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsNSH
35
Shots on goal
24
54%
Faceoffs
46%
1/4
Power play
2/5
10
Penalty minutes
8
20
Hits
28
13
Blocked shots
21
12
Giveaways
11
5
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
44M. RiellyD000040.23040—27:48
78T. BrodieD000000.00032—25:33
34A. MatthewsC011-140.351004621:50
16M. MarnerR011010.03000—21:23
88W. NylanderR101-170.83000—20:48
55M. GiordanoD101+130.18210—20:29
3J. KlingbergD000010.03302—20:03
91J. TavaresC000040.551007018:31
59T. BertuzziL000020.10110—16:06
19C. JarnkrokC000020.19002016:04
11M. DomiC000+110.18000015:05
64D. KampfC011+110.012005014:58
23M. KniesL000+100.00400—14:18
37T. LiljegrenD000000.00020—11:45
85W. LagessonD000010.06200—10:56
18N. GregorL000040.25000—08:53
29P. HolmbergR000000.000106007:48
75R. ReavesR000000.00410—06:33
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35I. Samsonov(O)24213.8752.33-0.6762:05

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).