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Red Wings at Sabres
NHL

Detroit Red Wings at Buffalo Sabres

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Detroit Red Wings
▸5
Buffalo Sabres
3
FinalTV ESPN+, HULU·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Detroit Red Wings beat the Buffalo Sabres 5-3. The Red Wings scored first and never trailed. The Red Wings led 4-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Robby Fabbri's goal at 8:25 of the first period, which took the Red Wings' chances from 59% to 74%. Expected goals favored the Red Wings, 3.3 to 2.1; shots on goal were DET 27, BUF 32. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Red Wings win a replay of these chances 60% of the time. Alex Lyon stopped 29 of 32 (.906), 0.9 goals below expected; Eric Comrie stopped 22 of 26 (.846), 1.3 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Robby Fabbri (1 G, 1 A), 2. Dylan Larkin (2 G), 3. Jeff Skinner (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    DET
    R. Fabbri1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    DET
    D. Larkin2 G
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    J. Skinner1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
DETDET2921216527
BUFBUF01117214332

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. DET
    D. Larkin(9)
    L. Raymond (12)
    snapxG 0.10win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-0
    3:40
  2. DET
    R. Fabbri(8)
    A. Copp (6), D. Perron (6)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +15 ptsVideo
    2-0
    8:25

2nd period

  1. DET
    M. Seider(4)PPG
    R. Fabbri (3), A. DeBrincat (11)
    slapxG 0.07win prob +9 ptsVideo
    3-0
    5:43
  2. DET
    M. Rasmussen(3)
    J. Petry (7), S. Gostisbehere (14)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +4 ptsVideo
    4-0
    13:55
  3. BUF
    R. Dahlin(6)PPG
    T. Thompson (7), D. Cozens (8)
    slapxG 0.03win prob +2 ptsVideo
    4-1
    18:57

3rd period

  1. BUF
    C. Mittelstadt(6)
    J. Skinner (9), J. Peterka (9)
    snapxG 0.08win prob +4 ptsVideo
    4-2
    8:20
  2. BUF
    J. Skinner(11)PPG
    Unassisted
    backhandxG 0.11win prob +10 ptsVideo
    4-3
    11:37
  3. DET
    D. Larkin(10)EN
    M. Rasmussen (6)
    wristxG 0.63win prob +7 ptsVideo
    5-3
    19:14

Penalties

DET 10 PIM·BUF 8 PIM

1st

  • 12:09DETShayne Gostisbehere · Hookingdrawn by Isak Rosen2 min
  • 17:23DETLucas Raymond · Trippingdrawn by Tyson Jost2 min
  • 17:54BUFRasmus Dahlin · Holdingdrawn by Andrew Copp2 min

2nd

  • 4:29BUFJeff Skinner · Trippingdrawn by Jeff Petry2 min
  • 10:32BUFJJ Peterka · Holdingdrawn by Dylan Larkin2 min
  • 18:52DETAndrew Copp · Slashingdrawn by Connor Clifton2 min

3rd

  • 0:41BUFCasey Mittelstadt · Slashingdrawn by Joseph Veleno2 min
  • 10:47DETBen Chiarot · High stickingdrawn by JJ Peterka2 min
  • 18:09DETJake Walman · High stickingdrawn by Jeff Skinner2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalDET goalFinal: BUF 0%

Biggest swing: Robby Fabbri, 1st 8:25 — DET 59% → 74%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
I. Rosen · On goal · xG 0.29I. Rosen · On goal · xG 0.16T. Jost · Missed · xG 0.11J. Skinner · Goal · xG 0.11J. Peterka · Missed · xG 0.11Z. Benson · On goal · xG 0.11Z. Benson · On goal · xG 0.09D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.09T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.09O. Power · On goal · xG 0.08C. Mittelstadt · Goal · xG 0.08J. Peterka · Missed · xG 0.07I. Rosen · On goal · xG 0.07J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.06T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.06J. Peterka · Missed · xG 0.05Z. Benson · On goal · xG 0.05J. Skinner · Missed · xG 0.04T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.04R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.03C. Mittelstadt · Missed · xG 0.03K. Okposo · Missed · xG 0.03E. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.03R. Dahlin · Goal · xG 0.03E. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.03R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.02H. Jokiharju · On goal · xG 0.02I. Rosen · On goal · xG 0.02Z. Benson · Missed · xG 0.02I. Rosen · On goal · xG 0.02Z. Benson · Missed · xG 0.01C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.01T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.01J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.01C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.01M. Samuelsson · On goal · xG 0.01V. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.01P. Krebs · On goal · xG 0.01R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.00J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.00B. Biro · Missed · xG 0.00E. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.00
BUF3 G · 2.1 xG · 42 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

DETvsBUF
3.34 G
All situations
3 G2.1
1.93 G
Even strength
1 G1.5
0.71 G
Power play
2 G0.6
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 74 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
DET60%40%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.63 – 2.11

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

DETvsBUF
27
Shots on goal
32
52%
Faceoffs
48%
1/4
Power play
2/5
10
Penalty minutes
8
16
Hits
18
18
Blocked shots
9
2
Giveaways
3
3
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Detroit Red Wings skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
53M. SeiderD101+230.13110—22:36
8B. ChiarotD000000.00262—21:11
46J. PetryD011+110.02400—20:24
37J. CompherL000040.330204420:03
41S. GostisbehereD011+210.01102—18:53
23L. RaymondL011020.29102—18:02
96J. WalmanD000+100.00122—17:50
93A. DeBrincatR011+140.2010010017:21
71D. LarkinC202+241.101106916:30
90J. VelenoC000010.010005016:07
18A. CoppC011+100.000125015:56
27M. RasmussenC112+230.440205015:15
2O. MaattaD000000.00000—14:03
57D. PerronL011+110.06200—13:34
14R. FabbriC112+120.34010012:30
17D. SprongR000010.2701010012:08
24K. KostinC000000.11000010:45
36C. FischerR000000.002102210:06
Detroit Red Wings goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
34A. Lyon(W)32293.9062.13-0.8760:00

Season series

DET leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).