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Sabres at Red Wings
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Detroit Red Wings

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
1
Detroit Red Wings
▸3
FinalTV TNT, MAX·Little Caesars Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Detroit Red Wings beat the Buffalo Sabres 3-1. The Red Wings scored first and never trailed. The Red Wings led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Patrick Kane's goal at 4:24 of the first period, which took the Red Wings' chances from 66% to 79%. Expected goals favored the Red Wings, 3.7 to 2.7; shots on goal were BUF 38, DET 24. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 60% of the time. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen stopped 21 of 24 (.875), 0.8 goals below expected; Alex Lyon stopped 37 of 38 (.974), 1.7 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Lucas Raymond (1 G, 1 A), 2. Dylan Larkin (1 G), 3. Alex Lyon (37 saves, .974).

Three stars

  1. ★
    DET
    L. Raymond1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    DET
    D. Larkin1 G
  3. ★★★
    DET
    A. Lyon37 saves, .974

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BUFBUF110011017138
DETDET3100707324

Scoring

4 goals

1st period

  1. DET
    L. Raymond(26)
    Unassisted
    snapxG 0.07win prob +11 ptsVideo
    0-1
    0:53
  2. DET
    P. Kane(19)
    J. Petry (20)
    wristxG 0.21win prob +14 ptsVideo
    0-2
    4:24
  3. DET
    D. Larkin(31)PPG
    L. Raymond (37), D. Perron (26)
    snapxG 0.14win prob +7 ptsVideo
    0-3
    7:37
  4. BUF
    T. Thompson(29)PPG
    Z. Benson (19), A. Tuch (37)
    slapxG 0.08win prob +10 ptsVideo
    1-3
    13:16

Penalties

BUF 18 PIM·DET 18 PIM

1st

  • 7:15BUFHenri Jokiharju · Cross checkingdrawn by Patrick Kane2 min
  • 9:31DETJoseph Veleno · Fightingdrawn by Bowen Byram5 min
  • 9:31BUFBowen Byram · Fightingdrawn by Joseph Veleno5 min
  • 10:21DETChristian Fischer · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 12:52DETAustin Czarnik · Trippingdrawn by Jacob Bryson2 min
  • 15:49BUFDylan Cozens · Fightingdrawn by Jeff Petry5 min
  • 15:49DETJeff Petry · Fightingdrawn by Dylan Cozens5 min

2nd

  • 18:14BUFConnor Clifton · Trippingdrawn by Alex DeBrincat2 min

3rd

  • 18:58DETBen Chiarot · Holdingdrawn by Jordan Greenway2 min
  • 18:58BUFJordan Greenway · Roughingdrawn by Ben Chiarot2 min
  • 18:58DETBen Chiarot · Roughingdrawn by Jordan Greenway2 min
  • 18:58BUFJordan Greenway · Roughingdrawn by Ben Chiarot2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DET goalBUF goalFinal: DET 100%

Biggest swing: Patrick Kane, 1st 4:24 — DET 66% → 79%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
D. Larkin · Missed · xG 0.44C. Fischer · Missed · xG 0.38B. Chiarot · Missed · xG 0.34D. Sprong · On goal · xG 0.23J. Compher · Missed · xG 0.22P. Kane · Goal · xG 0.21J. Compher · Missed · xG 0.19D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.18P. Kane · On goal · xG 0.16D. Larkin · Missed · xG 0.14D. Larkin · Goal · xG 0.14D. Perron · On goal · xG 0.13L. Raymond · On goal · xG 0.11A. DeBrincat · Missed · xG 0.10D. Perron · On goal · xG 0.08A. Czarnik · Missed · xG 0.08L. Raymond · Goal · xG 0.07L. Raymond · On goal · xG 0.06O. Maatta · On goal · xG 0.05A. Copp · Missed · xG 0.05D. Larkin · Missed · xG 0.05S. Edvinsson · Missed · xG 0.04D. Sprong · On goal · xG 0.04A. DeBrincat · Missed · xG 0.04D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.03S. Gostisbehere · On goal · xG 0.03D. Larkin · Missed · xG 0.02S. Edvinsson · On goal · xG 0.02B. Chiarot · Missed · xG 0.02J. Compher · Missed · xG 0.02S. Edvinsson · On goal · xG 0.01L. Raymond · Missed · xG 0.01O. Maatta · On goal · xG 0.01J. Petry · On goal · xG 0.01B. Chiarot · On goal · xG 0.01J. Petry · On goal · xG 0.00S. Gostisbehere · On goal · xG 0.00L. Raymond · On goal · xG 0.00L. Raymond · On goal · xG 0.00M. Seider · On goal · xG 0.00
DET3 G · 3.7 xG · 40 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsDET
2.71 G
All situations
3 G3.7
2.30 G
Even strength
2 G1.5
0.41 G
Power play
1 G0.7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 92 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF60%40%DET

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.70 – 2.15

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsDET
38
Shots on goal
24
50%
Faceoffs
50%
1/2
Power play
1/2
18
Penalty minutes
18
29
Hits
28
9
Blocked shots
27
2
Giveaways
6
6
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
26R. DahlinD000040.25410—28:41
25O. PowerD000-120.05120—23:10
77J. PeterkaR000030.28000—22:47
72T. ThompsonC101040.510005222:12
89A. TuchR011050.620003322:07
10H. JokiharjuD000-210.08202—22:05
4B. ByramD000-110.02205—20:42
12J. GreenwayL000-130.12314—18:49
53J. SkinnerL000040.252005015:36
19P. KrebsC000-130.104004315:18
75C. CliftonD000010.01442—15:11
24D. CozensC000-110.023055013:01
9Z. BensonL011-210.11000—11:45
22J. QuinnR000-100.00100—10:38
13L. RousekR000000.0000010010:00
17T. JostC000030.231106009:55
50E. RobinsonL000010.02100—09:29
78J. BrysonD000010.05100—09:16
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
1U. Luukkonen(L)24213.8752.16-0.8456:56

Season series

DET leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).