Maple Leafs at Rangers 3-2 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Toronto Maple Leafs

▸3

New York Rangers

FinalTV MSG, TSN4·Madison Square Garden

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the New York Rangers 3-2. The Rangers scored first; the Maple Leafs answered. The Rangers led 1-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Noel Acciari's goal at 12:21 of the third period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 48% to 84%. Expected goals favored the Rangers, 3.2 to 2.8; shots on goal were TOR 21, NYR 24. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Rangers win a replay of these chances 57% of the time. Joseph Woll stopped 22 of 24 (.917), 1.2 goals saved above expected; Jaroslav Halak stopped 18 of 21 (.857). Three stars: 1. Noel Acciari (1 G), 2. William Nylander (1 G), 3. Artemi Panarin (1 G).

Three stars

★
N. Acciari1 G
★★
W. Nylander1 G
★★★
A. Panarin1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TOR	07	05	39	321
NYR	05	17	112	224

Scoring

5 goals

2nd period

K. Kakko(18)
V. Trocheck (42)
backhandxG 0.03win prob +16 pts
0-1
1:38

3rd period

T. Liljegren(6)
D. Kampf (20), J. McCabe (22)
snapxG 0.01win prob +25 pts
1-1
3:09
A. Panarin(29)PPG
A. Fox (60), M. Zibanejad (52)
slapxG 0.17win prob +21 pts
1-2
6:26
W. Nylander(40)
R. O'Reilly (14)
wristxG 0.18win prob +28 pts
2-2
7:48
N. Acciari(14)
Unassisted
pokexG 0.19win prob +36 pts
3-2
12:21

Penalties

4 PIM·

2 PIM

1st

13:55Niko Mikkola · Holdingdrawn by Matthew Knies2 min

3rd

6:13William Nylander · Trippingdrawn by Alexis Lafrenière2 min
17:12Luke Schenn · Trippingdrawn by Alexis Lafrenière2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: NYR

Biggest swing: Noel Acciari, 3rd 12:21 — TOR 48% → 84%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

2 G · 3.2 xG · 39 att

←

attacks

attacks →

3 G · 2.8 xG · 35 att NYR

2 G · 3.2 xG · 39 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.83 G
All situations: 2 G3.2; 2.73 G
Even strength: 1 G2.6; 0.00 G
Power play: 1 G0.6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 74 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

43%57%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.75 – 3.15

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

21
Shots on goal: 24; 59%
Faceoffs: 41%; 0/1
Power play: 1/2; 4
Penalty minutes: 2; 14
Hits: 10; 11
Blocked shots: 17; 10
Giveaways: 14; 9
Takeaways: 13

Box score

every player line

Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
16M. MarnerR	0	0	0	0	1	0.09	0	0	0	—	23:10
37T. LiljegrenD	1	0	1	+2	1	0.01	1	1	0	—	21:42
34A. MatthewsC	0	0	0	0	3	0.30	0	1	0	50	20:33
3J. HollD	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	4	2	0	—	20:25
22J. McCabeD	0	1	1	+2	0	0.00	0	2	0	—	20:08
78T. BrodieD	0	0	0	0	0	0.02	0	1	0	—	19:57
44M. RiellyD	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	0	—	17:52
2L. SchennD	0	0	0	0	2	0.11	2	1	2	—	17:23
58M. BuntingL	0	0	0	0	3	0.62	2	0	0	—	16:42
90R. O'ReillyC	0	1	1	+1	0	0.00	0	0	0	56	16:32
88W. NylanderR	1	0	1	0	6	0.71	0	0	2	—	15:45
64D. KampfC	0	1	1	+1	0	0.00	0	1	0	67	15:34
23M. KniesL	0	0	0	0	1	0.21	1	0	0	—	13:58
52N. AcciariC	1	0	1	+1	3	0.38	1	2	0	67	13:53
19C. JarnkrokC	0	0	0	0	0	0.08	0	0	0	0	12:47
15A. KerfootC	0	0	0	+2	1	0.05	1	0	0	0	11:59
12Z. Aston-ReeseL	0	0	0	+1	0	0.20	1	0	0	—	11:40
25C. TimminsD	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	0	0	—	07:47

Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
60J. Woll(W)	24	22	2	.917	3.20	+1.20	60:00

Season series

TOR leads 2-1

Dec 151@3Final
Jan 252@3OTFinal
Apr 133@2this game

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Toronto Maple Leafs at New York Rangers

2nd period

3rd period

1st

3rd

Box score