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Senators at Flames
NHL

Ottawa Senators at Calgary Flames

NHL scoreboard
Ottawa Senators
1
Calgary Flames
▸5
FinalTV SNW, TSN5·Scotiabank Saddledome

Recap

written from the game data

The Calgary Flames beat the Ottawa Senators 5-1. The Flames scored first and never trailed. The Flames led 4-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jonathan Huberdeau's goal at 7:03 of the second period, which took the Flames' chances from 70% to 86%. Expected goals favored the Flames, 4.7 to 2.4; shots on goal were OTT 31, CGY 39. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Flames win a replay of these chances 81% of the time. Kevin Mandolese stopped 34 of 39 (.872); Jacob Markstrom stopped 30 of 31 (.968), 1.4 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Elias Lindholm (1 G, 1 A), 2. Jonathan Huberdeau (1 G, 1 A), 3. Jacob Markstrom (30 saves, .968).

Three stars

  1. ★
    CGY
    E. Lindholm1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    CGY
    J. Huberdeau1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    CGY
    J. Markstrom30 saves, .968

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
OTTOTT01211306131
CGYCGY21628115539

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. CGY
    R. Andersson(9)SHG
    M. Backlund (28), E. Lindholm (36)
    snapxG 0.17win prob +14 pts
    0-1
    12:09
  2. CGY
    E. Lindholm(19)PPG
    M. Backlund (29), R. Andersson (32)
    snapxG 0.20win prob +12 pts
    0-2
    18:26

2nd period

  1. OTT
    T. Stützle(32)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.22win prob +15 pts
    1-2
    5:55
  2. CGY
    J. Huberdeau(13)
    N. Kadri (27), T. Toffoli (30)
    tip-inxG 0.17win prob +15 pts
    1-3
    7:03
  3. CGY
    N. Hanifin(5)
    N. Kadri (28), J. Huberdeau (31)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +8 pts
    1-4
    13:08

3rd period

  1. CGY
    T. Lewis(9)
    M. Lucic (10)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +1 pts
    1-5
    5:30

Penalties

OTT 6 PIM·CGY 8 PIM

1st

  • 8:13OTTDylan Gambrell · Trippingdrawn by Nikita Zadorov2 min
  • 10:21CGYTyler Toffoli · Cross checkingdrawn by Mathieu Joseph2 min
  • 17:41OTTErik Brannstrom · Holdingdrawn by Jonathan Huberdeau2 min

2nd

  • 2:29CGYAndrew Mangiapane · Holding the stickdrawn by Claude Giroux2 min
  • 7:45CGYNazem Kadri · Interferencedrawn by Parker Kelly2 min

3rd

  • 7:01OTTAustin Watson · Hookingdrawn by Nazem Kadri2 min
  • 12:31CGYTroy Stecher · Interferencedrawn by Alex DeBrincat2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
CGY goalOTT goalFinal: CGY 100%

Biggest swing: Jonathan Huberdeau, 2nd 7:03 — CGY 70% → 86%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
B. Coleman · On goal · xG 0.26E. Lindholm · On goal · xG 0.21E. Lindholm · Goal · xG 0.20N. Zadorov · Missed · xG 0.18J. Huberdeau · Goal · xG 0.17R. Andersson · Goal · xG 0.16M. Weegar · On goal · xG 0.15J. Huberdeau · Missed · xG 0.15D. Dube · On goal · xG 0.15N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.14T. Toffoli · Missed · xG 0.14N. Hanifin · On goal · xG 0.13N. Kadri · Missed · xG 0.13D. Dube · On goal · xG 0.13N. Kadri · Missed · xG 0.12T. Lewis · Goal · xG 0.12E. Lindholm · Missed · xG 0.11M. Backlund · Missed · xG 0.11N. Hanifin · Goal · xG 0.10T. Lewis · On goal · xG 0.10W. Duehr · On goal · xG 0.10M. Backlund · Missed · xG 0.09M. Weegar · On goal · xG 0.09N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.08M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.08T. Toffoli · On goal · xG 0.07N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.07N. Hanifin · Missed · xG 0.07A. Mangiapane · On goal · xG 0.06N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.06N. Kadri · Missed · xG 0.06J. Pelletier · Missed · xG 0.06A. Mangiapane · On goal · xG 0.06J. Huberdeau · Missed · xG 0.06J. Huberdeau · On goal · xG 0.05J. Pelletier · On goal · xG 0.05N. Zadorov · On goal · xG 0.05M. Backlund · Missed · xG 0.05J. Huberdeau · Missed · xG 0.04E. Lindholm · On goal · xG 0.04N. Zadorov · Missed · xG 0.04A. Mangiapane · On goal · xG 0.04C. Tanev · On goal · xG 0.04N. Hanifin · On goal · xG 0.04A. Mangiapane · Missed · xG 0.03T. Toffoli · On goal · xG 0.03M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.03E. Lindholm · On goal · xG 0.02M. Weegar · On goal · xG 0.02M. Lucic · On goal · xG 0.02T. Stecher · Missed · xG 0.02N. Zadorov · Missed · xG 0.02E. Lindholm · Missed · xG 0.02C. Tanev · On goal · xG 0.01T. Stecher · Missed · xG 0.01N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.01T. Lewis · On goal · xG 0.01M. Backlund · Missed · xG 0.01M. Weegar · On goal · xG 0.01R. Andersson · On goal · xG 0.00
CGY5 G · 4.7 xG · 60 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

OTTvsCGY
2.41 G
All situations
5 G4.7
1.61 G
Even strength
3 G2.9
0.70 G
Power play
1 G1.1
0.10 G
Shorthanded
1 G0.6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 97 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
OTT19%81%CGY

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.39 – 4.60

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

OTTvsCGY
31
Shots on goal
39
51%
Faceoffs
49%
0/4
Power play
1/3
6
Penalty minutes
8
28
Hits
23
27
Blocked shots
11
13
Giveaways
9
9
Takeaways
11

Box score

every player line
Ottawa Senators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
6J. ChychrunD000020.15060—24:04
7B. TkachukL000-120.141003821:30
2A. ZubD000-100.00130—21:03
12A. DeBrincatR000-230.32100—20:53
18T. StützleC101-120.292205020:04
85J. SandersonD000-230.14140—20:04
19D. BathersonR000-140.69020—19:17
28C. GirouxR000-130.151005619:06
23T. HamonicD000-110.02440—18:05
45P. KellyC000-110.02720017:19
57S. PintoC000-210.022004416:56
26E. BrannstromD000000.00002—16:14
72T. ChabotD000-130.13020—15:59
27D. GambrellC000000.003025013:13
16A. WatsonL000000.00212—10:56
47M. KastelicC000030.070006009:12
77J. GauthierR000-120.23310—08:44
21M. JosephR000010.05000—02:36
Ottawa Senators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
70K. Mandolese(L)39345.8724.66-0.3460:00

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).