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Oilers at Sabres
NHL

Edmonton Oilers at Buffalo Sabres

NHL scoreboard
Edmonton Oilers
▸3
Buffalo Sabres
2
FinalTV SN, TVAS·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Edmonton Oilers beat the Buffalo Sabres 3-2. The Oilers scored first and never trailed. The Oilers led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Connor McDavid's goal at 3:23 of the third period, which took the Oilers' chances from 48% to 74%. Expected goals favored the Sabres, 4.1 to 3.4; shots on goal were EDM 37, BUF 39. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 59% of the time. Stuart Skinner stopped 37 of 39 (.949), 2.1 goals saved above expected; Craig Anderson stopped 34 of 37 (.919). Three stars: 1. Connor McDavid (2 G), 2. Stuart Skinner (37 saves, .949), 3. Jeff Skinner (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    EDM
    C. McDavid2 G
  2. ★★
    EDM
    S. Skinner37 saves, .949
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    J. Skinner1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
EDMEDM12016111337
BUFBUF115013111239

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. EDM
    C. McDavid(53)
    R. McLeod (10), C. Ceci (11)
    wrap-aroundxG 0.03win prob +13 pts
    1-0
    7:21
  2. BUF
    J. Skinner(27)PPG
    T. Thompson (41)
    slapxG 0.12win prob +9 pts
    1-1
    9:45

2nd period

  1. EDM
    D. Ryan(11)
    D. Shore (6), D. Nurse (27)
    snapxG 0.17win prob +23 pts
    2-1
    18:45

3rd period

  1. BUF
    D. Cozens(24)
    J. Bryson (8), C. Mittelstadt (30)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +24 pts
    2-2
    0:41
  2. EDM
    C. McDavid(54)
    W. Foegele (8), M. Ekholm (15)
    snapxG 0.12win prob +26 pts
    3-2
    3:23

Penalties

EDM 4 PIM·BUF 2 PIM

1st

  • 9:02EDMZach Hyman · Holdingdrawn by Ilya Lyubushkin2 min
  • 12:37BUFTage Thompson · Trippingdrawn by Connor McDavid2 min

2nd

  • 8:42EDMEvan Bouchard · Cross checkingdrawn by Jeff Skinner2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalEDM goalFinal: BUF 0%

Biggest swing: Connor McDavid, 3rd 3:23 — EDM 48% → 74%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Skinner · Missed · xG 0.43T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.20J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.20T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.18C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.15J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.14D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.14T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.13J. Skinner · Goal · xG 0.12J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.11Z. Girgensons · Missed · xG 0.11D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.11J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.10J. Quinn · Missed · xG 0.10R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.10T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.09D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.09D. Cozens · Goal · xG 0.09J. Peterka · On goal · xG 0.08J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.08D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.08J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.07H. Jokiharju · On goal · xG 0.07J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.07J. Skinner · Missed · xG 0.07V. Hinostroza · On goal · xG 0.07D. Cozens · Missed · xG 0.06V. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.05V. Hinostroza · Missed · xG 0.05D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.05J. Skinner · Missed · xG 0.05T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.05V. Hinostroza · On goal · xG 0.05V. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.04C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.04C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.04J. Skinner · Missed · xG 0.04V. Hinostroza · On goal · xG 0.03C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.03J. Bryson · On goal · xG 0.03I. Lyubushkin · On goal · xG 0.03V. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.03J. Greenway · Missed · xG 0.02D. Cozens · Missed · xG 0.02J. Peterka · On goal · xG 0.02J. Greenway · On goal · xG 0.02R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.02J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.02R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.02V. Hinostroza · On goal · xG 0.02J. Peterka · On goal · xG 0.02H. Jokiharju · On goal · xG 0.01R. Dahlin · Missed · xG 0.01V. Hinostroza · Missed · xG 0.01
BUF2 G · 4.1 xG · 54 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

EDMvsBUF
3.43 G
All situations
2 G4.1
3.13 G
Even strength
1 G3.1
0.40 G
Power play
1 G1.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 105 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
EDM41%59%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.41 – 3.99

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

EDMvsBUF
37
Shots on goal
39
65%
Faceoffs
35%
0/1
Power play
1/2
4
Penalty minutes
2
24
Hits
18
7
Blocked shots
11
6
Giveaways
8
7
Takeaways
8

Box score

every player line
Edmonton Oilers skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
5C. CeciD011+210.00310—22:43
14M. EkholmD011030.05000—22:03
25D. NurseD011+220.04220—21:16
2E. BouchardD000030.23012—20:42
97C. McDavidC202+230.212105719:58
93R. Nugent-HopkinsC000-140.290006717:40
29L. DraisaitlC000-120.292105517:39
18Z. HymanL000+220.60002—17:36
71R. McLeodC011+110.120006016:45
73V. DesharnaisD000010.15100—16:10
26M. JanmarkC000000.0010010015:34
27B. KulakD000030.06000—15:16
56K. YamamotoR000-140.46200—14:52
72N. BjugstadC000010.1430010014:26
37W. FoegeleL011+110.11200—13:15
10D. RyanC101+130.392005011:10
21K. KostinC000+100.08400010:16
19D. ShoreC011+130.22010009:56
Edmonton Oilers goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
74S. Skinner(W)39372.9494.07+2.0760:00

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).