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St. Louis Blues at Utah Mammoth

FinalTV BSAZ, BSMW·Mullett Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Utah Mammoth beat the St. Louis Blues 5-0. The Coyotes scored first and never trailed. The Coyotes led 2-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Nick Schmaltz's goal at 10:55 of the second period, which took the Coyotes' chances from 53% to 72%. Expected goals favored the Coyotes, 2.7 to 2.4; shots on goal were STL 33, ARI 25. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Coyotes win a replay of these chances 56% of the time. Thomas Greiss stopped 21 of 25 (.840), 2.3 goals below expected; Karel Vejmelka stopped 33 of 33 (1.000), 2.4 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Nick Schmaltz (3 G, 1 A), 2. Karel Vejmelka (33 saves, 1.000), 3. Barrett Hayton (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    ARI
    N. Schmaltz3 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    ARI
    K. Vejmelka33 saves, 1.000
  3. ★★★
    ARI
    B. Hayton1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
STLSTL01201506033
ARIARI0102936525

Scoring

5 goals

2nd period

  1. ARI
    wristxG 0.10win prob +19 pts
    0-1
    10:55
  2. ARI
    Unassisted
    snapxG 0.27win prob +16 pts
    0-2
    13:56

3rd period

  1. ARI
    Unassisted
    xG 0.05win prob +6 pts
    0-3
    0:13
  2. ARI
    wristxG 0.28win prob +1 pts
    0-4
    5:02
  3. ARI
    B. Hayton(7)PPG
    wristxG 0.13
    0-5
    7:16

Penalties

STL 9 PIM·ARI 11 PIM

1st

  • 1:35STLRobert Thomas · Hookingdrawn by Clayton Keller2 min
  • 9:51ARIDylan Guenther · Hookingdrawn by Nick Leddy2 min

2nd

  • 16:39ARIBarrett Hayton · Holdingdrawn by Alexey Toropchenko2 min

3rd

  • 6:23STLJosh Leivo · Roughingdrawn by J.J. Moser2 min
  • 6:23ARIJ.J. Moser · Fightingdrawn by Josh Leivo5 min
  • 6:23STLJosh Leivo · Fightingdrawn by J.J. Moser5 min
  • 9:21ARIJoshua Brown · Trippingdrawn by Tyler Pitlick2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
ARI goalSTL goalFinal: ARI 100%

Biggest swing: Nick Schmaltz, 2nd 10:55 — ARI 53% → 72%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
C. Fischer · On goal · xG 0.31T. Boyd · Goal · xG 0.28N. Schmaltz · Goal · xG 0.27B. Hayton · Missed · xG 0.16T. Boyd · Missed · xG 0.14B. Hayton · Goal · xG 0.13B. Hayton · On goal · xG 0.11N. Schmaltz · Goal · xG 0.10J. Moser · On goal · xG 0.10N. Bjugstad · On goal · xG 0.09C. Fischer · On goal · xG 0.09C. Keller · On goal · xG 0.08Z. Kassian · On goal · xG 0.08J. Chychrun · Missed · xG 0.07N. Schmaltz · On goal · xG 0.07N. Ritchie · On goal · xG 0.07T. Boyd · On goal · xG 0.07M. Maccelli · On goal · xG 0.07J. McBain · On goal · xG 0.07J. Chychrun · On goal · xG 0.05B. Hayton · Missed · xG 0.05J. McBain · On goal · xG 0.05N. Schmaltz · Goal · xG 0.05D. Guenther · Missed · xG 0.04J. Välimäki · Missed · xG 0.03J. Chychrun · On goal · xG 0.02J. Chychrun · Missed · xG 0.02J. Välimäki · On goal · xG 0.02N. Bjugstad · On goal · xG 0.01B. Hayton · On goal · xG 0.01P. Nemeth · On goal · xG 0.01J. Chychrun · Missed · xG 0.01B. Hayton · On goal · xG 0.01J. Brown · Missed · xG 0.00J. Brown · On goal · xG 0.00
ARI5 G · 2.7 xG · 35 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

STLvsARI
2.40 G
All situations
5 G2.7
1.30 G
Even strength
4 G2.5
1.00 G
Power play
1 G0.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 80 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
STL44%56%ARI

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.33 – 2.65

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

STLvsARI
33
Shots on goal
25
57%
Faceoffs
43%
0/3
Power play
1/2
9
Penalty minutes
11
20
Hits
27
10
Blocked shots
17
9
Giveaways
5
6
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
St. Louis Blues skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
72J. FaulkD000-220.09010—22:19
55C. ParaykoD000-120.15110—19:38
47T. KrugD000-240.03130—19:29
20B. SaadL000-200.14210—18:54
4N. LeddyD000-230.06010—18:54
49I. BarbashevL000-110.08000—18:24
52N. AcciariC000-100.004107617:28
91V. TarasenkoR000-230.50100—17:17
10B. SchennC000-220.190005017:14
77N. MikkolaD000-100.00210—16:42
43C. RosenD000010.01200—16:39
25J. KyrouR000-260.47000—15:58
13A. ToropchenkoR000010.01210—15:56
22L. BrownC000-100.000003315:09
63J. NeighboursL000010.1310010013:20
17J. LeivoL000040.19107—12:40
9T. PitlickC000-120.13300012:39
18R. ThomasC000010.160028308:27
St. Louis Blues goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
1T. Greiss(L)25215.8402.74-2.2660:00

Season series

ARI leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).