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Lightning at Islanders
NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Islanders

NHL scoreboard
Tampa Bay Lightning
▸6
New York Islanders
4
FinalTV MSG+ 2, BSSUN·UBS Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the New York Islanders 6-4. The Lightning came back from two goals down. The Islanders led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Steven Stamkos's goal at 11:13 of the third period, which took the Lightning's chances from 48% to 82%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 4.8 to 4.0; shots on goal were TBL 34, NYI 37. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 57% of the time. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 33 of 37 (.892); Ilya Sorokin stopped 28 of 33 (.848), 0.5 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Zdeno Chara (1 G), 2. Steven Stamkos (3 G), 3. Ondrej Palat (3 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NYI
    Z. Chara1 G
  2. ★★
    TBL
    S. Stamkos3 G
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    O. Palat3 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TBLTBL110011513634
NYINYI110211116437

Scoring

10 goals

1st period

  1. NYI
    J. Pageau(18)
    N. Dobson (38), A. Lee (18)
    tip-inxG 0.13win prob +11 pts
    0-1
    0:32
  2. TBL
    S. Stamkos(40)
    E. Cernak (12), O. Palat (29)
    tip-inxG 0.11win prob +13 pts
    1-1
    11:57

2nd period

  1. NYI
    K. Bellows(6)
    Unassisted
    backhandxG 0.12win prob +18 pts
    1-2
    9:35
  2. NYI
    J. Bailey(14)PPG
    A. Beauvillier (22), R. Pulock (16)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +12 pts
    1-3
    18:48

3rd period

  1. TBL
    C. Perry(19)PPG
    N. Kucherov (43), V. Hedman (65)
    wristxG 0.19win prob +14 pts
    2-3
    1:21
  2. TBL
    R. McDonagh(4)
    P. Maroon (16), P. Bellemare (11)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +31 pts
    3-3
    10:10
  3. TBL
    S. Stamkos(41)
    O. Palat (30)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +34 pts
    4-3
    11:13
  4. TBL
    S. Stamkos(42)
    O. Palat (31), N. Kucherov (44)
    tip-inxG 0.10win prob +7 pts
    5-3
    17:50
  5. NYI
    Z. Chara(2)
    M. Barzal (44), Z. Parise (20)
    slapxG 0.04win prob +2 pts
    5-4
    19:16
  6. TBL
    B. Hagel(25)EN
    R. McDonagh (22), A. Cirelli (26)
    wristxG 0.32win prob +2 pts
    6-4
    19:35

Penalties

TBL 2 PIM·NYI 2 PIM

2nd

  • 17:40TBLSteven Stamkos · Slashingdrawn by Ryan Pulock2 min
  • 19:38NYIJean-Gabriel Pageau · Trippingdrawn by Anthony Cirelli2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NYI goalTBL goalFinal: NYI 0%

Biggest swing: Steven Stamkos, 3rd 11:13 — TBL 48% → 82%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Lee · Missed · xG 0.29B. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.22A. Beauvillier · Missed · xG 0.18J. Bailey · On goal · xG 0.17O. Wahlstrom · On goal · xG 0.17A. Beauvillier · On goal · xG 0.16Z. Chara · Missed · xG 0.15K. Palmieri · On goal · xG 0.14J. Bailey · On goal · xG 0.13J. Pageau · Goal · xG 0.13J. Bailey · Missed · xG 0.13Z. Parise · Missed · xG 0.13K. Bellows · Goal · xG 0.12J. Bailey · On goal · xG 0.12A. Lee · On goal · xG 0.11M. Martin · On goal · xG 0.11A. Lee · On goal · xG 0.11M. Barzal · On goal · xG 0.10K. Palmieri · On goal · xG 0.10B. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.10K. Bellows · On goal · xG 0.08A. Beauvillier · On goal · xG 0.08M. Barzal · On goal · xG 0.07A. Lee · Missed · xG 0.07K. Palmieri · Missed · xG 0.06C. Cizikas · On goal · xG 0.06A. Lee · On goal · xG 0.06J. Bailey · Goal · xG 0.05A. Greene · On goal · xG 0.05Z. Parise · Missed · xG 0.04Z. Chara · Goal · xG 0.04O. Wahlstrom · On goal · xG 0.04R. Pulock · On goal · xG 0.03N. Dobson · On goal · xG 0.03K. Bellows · On goal · xG 0.03N. Dobson · Missed · xG 0.03M. Barzal · On goal · xG 0.03A. Lee · On goal · xG 0.03B. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.03Z. Chara · On goal · xG 0.02A. Beauvillier · On goal · xG 0.02R. Pulock · Missed · xG 0.02R. Pulock · On goal · xG 0.02M. Martin · Missed · xG 0.02R. Salo · On goal · xG 0.02Z. Parise · On goal · xG 0.02A. Lee · On goal · xG 0.02A. Greene · Missed · xG 0.01R. Pulock · On goal · xG 0.01N. Dobson · Missed · xG 0.01R. Pulock · On goal · xG 0.00
NYI4 G · 4.0 xG · 51 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TBLvsNYI
4.85 G
All situations
4 G4.0
4.14 G
Even strength
3 G3.8
0.41 G
Power play
1 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 99 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TBL57%43%NYI

Flurry-adjusted xG 4.40 – 3.91

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TBLvsNYI
34
Shots on goal
37
51%
Faceoffs
49%
1/1
Power play
1/1
2
Penalty minutes
2
19
Hits
14
13
Blocked shots
12
12
Giveaways
14
3
Takeaways
10

Box score

every player line
Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
86N. KucherovR022+330.36000—21:55
77V. HedmanD011+130.47000—20:41
98M. SergachevD000-100.00110—19:58
81E. CernakD011+200.00510—19:33
27R. McDonaghD112+210.14020—19:31
91S. StamkosC303+370.782126018:33
10C. PerryR101-120.30000—17:19
17A. KillornL000020.42100—16:29
18O. PalatL033+410.1421010016:23
38B. HagelL101020.4511010016:20
41P. BellemareL011020.290008216:09
44J. RuttaD000-110.13020—15:02
14P. MaroonL011+110.19220—14:44
79R. ColtonC000-250.684106714:26
20N. PaulL000-220.360005714:20
71A. CirelliC011000.000101214:16
52C. FooteD000+110.02100—13:25
24Z. BogosianD000010.09000—09:48
Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
88A. Vasilevskiy(W)37334.8924.000.0060:00

Season series

TBL leads 3-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).