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Predators at Sabres
NHL

Nashville Predators at Buffalo Sabres

NHL scoreboard
Nashville Predators
3
Buffalo Sabres
▸4
FinalTV MSG-B, BSSO·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the Nashville Predators 4-3. The Sabres scored first and never trailed. The Sabres led 4-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Victor Olofsson's goal at 14:25 of the second period, which took the Sabres' chances from 55% to 73%. Expected goals favored the Sabres, 3.3 to 1.8; shots on goal were NSH 25, BUF 35. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 67% of the time. Juuse Saros stopped 31 of 35 (.886), 1.3 goals below expected; Craig Anderson stopped 22 of 25 (.880), 1.2 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Tage Thompson (2 G), 2. Alex Tuch (2 A), 3. Peyton Krebs (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    T. Thompson2 G
  2. ★★
    BUF
    A. Tuch2 A
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    P. Krebs1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NSHNSH31005010325
BUFBUF31419012435

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    P. Krebs(7)
    D. Cozens (22), V. Olofsson (20)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +11 pts
    0-1
    2:14
  2. NSH
    F. Forsberg(38)
    M. Duchene (34), R. Johansen (33)
    slapxG 0.20win prob +12 pts
    1-1
    4:32
  3. BUF
    T. Thompson(29)
    J. Skinner (21), A. Tuch (20)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +12 pts
    1-2
    6:58
  4. BUF
    T. Thompson(30)
    A. Tuch (21)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +14 pts
    1-3
    13:22
  5. NSH
    M. McCarron(7)
    M. Benning (11), E. Tolvanen (12)
    tip-inxG 0.09win prob +14 pts
    2-3
    17:23
  6. NSH
    J. Lauzon(2)
    M. Duchene (35), R. Johansen (34)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +15 pts
    3-3
    19:01

2nd period

  1. BUF
    V. Olofsson(15)PPG
    D. Cozens (23), P. Krebs (10)
    snapxG 0.06win prob +18 pts
    3-4
    14:25

Penalties

NSH 4 PIM·BUF 2 PIM

1st

  • 7:14NSHYakov Trenin · Trippingdrawn by Jacob Bryson2 min

2nd

  • 3:32BUFTage Thompson · Trippingdrawn by Roman Josi2 min
  • 12:53NSHserved by P. Tomasino · Too many men on the ice2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalNSH goalFinal: BUF 100%

Biggest swing: Victor Olofsson, 2nd 14:25 — BUF 55% → 73%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.57A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.26A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.25R. Asplund · On goal · xG 0.19D. Cozens · Missed · xG 0.17A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.12T. Thompson · Goal · xG 0.11J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.10J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.10T. Thompson · Goal · xG 0.10P. Krebs · On goal · xG 0.10C. Eakin · On goal · xG 0.09K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.08T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.07T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.07P. Krebs · Goal · xG 0.07V. Olofsson · Goal · xG 0.06D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.06R. Asplund · Missed · xG 0.06Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.06J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.06P. Krebs · Missed · xG 0.06T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.05P. Krebs · On goal · xG 0.05Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.04Z. Girgensons · Missed · xG 0.04H. Jokiharju · On goal · xG 0.04R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.04V. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.03C. Fitzgerald · Missed · xG 0.03Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.02D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.02M. Pysyk · Missed · xG 0.02D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.02J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.01C. Fitzgerald · On goal · xG 0.01V. Hinostroza · On goal · xG 0.01J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.01A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.01R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.01P. Krebs · On goal · xG 0.01C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.01K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.01V. Hinostroza · On goal · xG 0.01
BUF4 G · 3.3 xG · 44 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NSHvsBUF
1.83 G
All situations
4 G3.3
1.43 G
Even strength
3 G2.4
0.20 G
Power play
1 G0.3
0.20 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 77 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NSH33%67%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.82 – 2.73

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NSHvsBUF
25
Shots on goal
35
44%
Faceoffs
56%
0/1
Power play
1/2
4
Penalty minutes
2
12
Hits
20
7
Blocked shots
11
4
Giveaways
8
2
Takeaways
8

Box score

every player line
Nashville Predators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
59R. JosiD000+110.01000—26:56
14M. EkholmD000030.07010—23:26
95M. DucheneC022+220.210005020:36
45A. CarrierD000010.07000—20:11
3J. LauzonD101010.13120—19:35
9F. ForsbergL101+230.28110—19:03
92R. JohansenC022+220.060104717:11
64M. GranlundC000-100.001003316:46
84T. JeannotL000-130.34100—16:25
47M. McCarronC101+110.091106015:52
10C. SissonsC000-200.001003614:25
13Y. TreninC000-110.04002014:25
5M. BenningD011020.01400—14:18
11L. KuninC000030.21000013:14
21N. CousinsC000-200.00100012:28
38J. DaviesD000-100.08000—11:55
26P. TomasinoR000-110.13110—10:57
28E. TolvanenR011+110.10000—10:50
Nashville Predators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
74J. Saros(L)35314.8862.73-1.2757:55

Season series

BUF leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).