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Flyers at Sabres
NHL

Philadelphia Flyers at Buffalo Sabres

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Philadelphia Flyers
3
Buffalo Sabres
▸6
FinalTV NHLN, NBCSP·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the Philadelphia Flyers 6-3. The lead changed hands 2 times. The Sabres led 5-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Peyton Krebs's goal at 18:00 of the first period, which took the Sabres' chances from 68% to 83%. Expected goals were close — PHI 2.4, BUF 2.3; shots on goal were PHI 33, BUF 24. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Flyers win a replay of these chances 51% of the time. Carter Hart stopped 14 of 16 (.875), 0.5 goals below expected; Michael Houser stopped 30 of 33 (.909), 0.6 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Peyton Krebs (2 G), 2. Tage Thompson (2 G, 1 A), 3. Jeff Skinner (2 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    P. Krebs2 G
  2. ★★
    BUF
    T. Thompson2 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    J. Skinner2 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
PHIPHI29011113333
BUFBUF4101618624

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    J. Skinner(15)
    A. Tuch (6), D. Cozens (10)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +11 pts
    0-1
    1:29
  2. PHI
    R. Ristolainen(2)
    T. Sanheim (10)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +13 pts
    1-1
    11:18
  3. PHI
    C. Giroux(13)
    I. Provorov (11), C. Atkinson (15)
    tip-inxG 0.06win prob +14 pts
    2-1
    12:44
  4. BUF
    T. Thompson(13)PPG
    A. Tuch (7), J. Skinner (11)
    slapxG 0.18win prob +11 pts
    2-2
    15:33
  5. BUF
    T. Thompson(14)PPG
    R. Dahlin (20)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +10 pts
    2-3
    15:57
  6. BUF
    P. Krebs(1)
    H. Jokiharju (7), M. Jankowski (2)
    slapxG 0.13win prob +15 pts
    2-4
    18:00

2nd period

  1. BUF
    P. Krebs(2)
    R. Asplund (11)
    backhandxG 0.08win prob +10 pts
    2-5
    2:24

3rd period

  1. BUF
    J. Skinner(16)PPG
    R. Dahlin (21), T. Thompson (14)
    slapxG 0.04win prob +1 pts
    2-6
    4:36
  2. PHI
    C. Giroux(14)PPG
    T. Konecny (16), C. Atkinson (16)
    tip-inxG 0.14
    3-6
    14:49

Penalties

PHI 10 PIM·BUF 12 PIM

1st

  • 5:54PHITravis Sanheim · Trippingdrawn by Tage Thompson2 min
  • 14:37PHIZack MacEwen · Hookingdrawn by John Hayden2 min
  • 15:33PHIserved by Z. MacEwen · Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min

2nd

  • 0:15BUFPeyton Krebs · Trippingdrawn by Cam Atkinson2 min
  • 11:24BUFRasmus Dahlin · Roughingdrawn by Travis Konecny2 min
  • 15:48BUFJohn Hayden · Slashingdrawn by Cam York2 min
  • 18:30PHIZack MacEwen · Hookingdrawn by Jeff Skinner2 min
  • 18:30BUFJeff Skinner · Embellishmentdrawn by Zack MacEwen2 min
  • 19:41BUFPeyton Krebs · Hookingdrawn by Ivan Provorov2 min

3rd

  • 3:46PHIGerry Mayhew · High stickingdrawn by Mark Jankowski2 min
  • 14:38BUFRasmus Dahlin · Holdingdrawn by Zack MacEwen2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalPHI goalFinal: BUF 100%

Biggest swing: Peyton Krebs, 1st 18:00 — BUF 68% → 83%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
T. Thompson · Goal · xG 0.18M. Samuelsson · On goal · xG 0.17J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.16J. Skinner · Goal · xG 0.15V. Olofsson · Missed · xG 0.14P. Krebs · Goal · xG 0.13T. Thompson · Goal · xG 0.12M. Samuelsson · On goal · xG 0.12A. Bjork · On goal · xG 0.11R. Asplund · Missed · xG 0.10A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.10D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.09J. Skinner · Missed · xG 0.09M. Jankowski · Missed · xG 0.09M. Samuelsson · On goal · xG 0.08P. Krebs · Goal · xG 0.08T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.05T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.05J. Skinner · Goal · xG 0.04M. Jankowski · On goal · xG 0.03V. Olofsson · Missed · xG 0.03P. Krebs · On goal · xG 0.03T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.03A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.02R. Asplund · On goal · xG 0.02T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.02A. Bjork · Missed · xG 0.02V. Olofsson · Missed · xG 0.01R. Hagg · On goal · xG 0.01M. Samuelsson · Missed · xG 0.01C. Eakin · On goal · xG 0.01M. Jankowski · On goal · xG 0.01R. Hagg · On goal · xG 0.01D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.01R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.01V. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.00
BUF6 G · 2.3 xG · 36 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

PHIvsBUF
2.43 G
All situations
6 G2.3
0.92 G
Even strength
3 G1.7
1.51 G
Power play
3 G0.6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 84 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
PHI51%49%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.35 – 2.31

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

PHIvsBUF
33
Shots on goal
24
50%
Faceoffs
50%
1/5
Power play
3/4
10
Penalty minutes
12
13
Hits
16
9
Blocked shots
14
4
Giveaways
7
3
Takeaways
3

Box score

every player line
Philadelphia Flyers skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
9I. ProvorovD011020.04020—27:25
89C. AtkinsonR022+160.3400010020:28
28C. GirouxR202+170.560005719:54
25J. van RiemsdykL000040.37000—19:36
11T. KonecnyR011-130.50110—19:06
70R. RistolainenD101010.12310—18:54
6T. SanheimD011010.01012—18:45
61J. BraunD000+110.02000—18:28
21S. LaughtonC000010.031004017:41
45C. YorkD000-220.14110—16:52
23O. LindblomL000-110.02120—16:46
48M. FrostC000-210.081002915:01
3K. YandleD000-110.01000—13:09
59J. CatesC000000.000006013:06
71M. WillmanC000000.0121010010:50
20G. MayhewC000000.00002010:15
17Z. MacEwenR000000.01204—09:18
57W. AllisonR000-120.13100—08:16
Philadelphia Flyers goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
79C. Hart16142.8751.46-0.5442:00
35M. Jones(L)844.5000.88-3.1218:00

Season series

BUF leads 3-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).