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Sabres at Flyers
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Philadelphia Flyers

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
▸5
Philadelphia Flyers
3
FinalTV NBCSP, MSG-B·Wells Fargo Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the Philadelphia Flyers 5-3. The lead changed hands 2 times. The Sabres led 4-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Tage Thompson's goal at 14:22 of the second period, which took the Sabres' chances from 68% to 86%. Expected goals favored the Sabres, 4.5 to 3.5; shots on goal were BUF 40, PHI 35. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 56% of the time. Dustin Tokarski stopped 32 of 35 (.914), 0.5 goals saved above expected; Felix Sandstrom stopped 35 of 39 (.897). Three stars: 1. Victor Olofsson (2 G), 2. Dustin Tokarski (32 saves, .914), 3. Kevin Hayes (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    V. Olofsson2 G
  2. ★★
    BUF
    D. Tokarski32 saves, .914
  3. ★★★
    PHI
    K. Hayes1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BUFBUF210214116540
PHIPHI11718110335

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. PHI
    K. Hayes(9)
    N. Cates (2), I. Provorov (18)
    backhandxG 0.03win prob +11 pts
    0-1
    1:16
  2. BUF
    V. Olofsson(19)PPG
    R. Dahlin (38), P. Krebs (14)
    snapxG 0.06win prob +9 pts
    1-1
    8:36
  3. BUF
    A. Bjork(5)
    R. Dahlin (39)
    snapxG 0.14win prob +15 pts
    2-1
    17:34

2nd period

  1. PHI
    N. Cates(3)
    T. Konecny (33), K. Hayes (20)
    wristxG 0.39win prob +16 pts
    2-2
    1:20
  2. BUF
    V. Olofsson(20)PPG
    D. Cozens (24), P. Krebs (15)
    snapxG 0.04win prob +17 pts
    3-2
    9:43
  3. BUF
    T. Thompson(35)
    J. Skinner (26)
    snapxG 0.23win prob +18 pts
    4-2
    14:22

3rd period

  1. PHI
    Z. MacEwen(3)
    O. Lindblom (14), T. Sanheim (24)
    snapxG 0.25win prob +11 pts
    4-3
    14:07
  2. BUF
    T. Thompson(36)EN
    J. Skinner (27), M. Samuelsson (10)
    wristxG 0.61win prob +3 pts
    5-3
    19:28

Penalties

BUF 4 PIM·PHI 4 PIM

1st

  • 7:43PHIKeith Yandle · Hookingdrawn by Tage Thompson2 min
  • 13:07BUFKyle Okposo · Trippingdrawn by Travis Konecny2 min

2nd

  • 3:31BUFVinnie Hinostroza · Trippingdrawn by Ronnie Attard2 min
  • 7:44PHITravis Sanheim · Holding the stickdrawn by Owen Power2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
PHI goalBUF goalFinal: PHI 0%

Biggest swing: Tage Thompson, 2nd 14:22 — BUF 68% → 86%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
N. Cates · Goal · xG 0.39R. Attard · Missed · xG 0.28Z. MacEwen · Goal · xG 0.25T. Konecny · On goal · xG 0.22T. Konecny · On goal · xG 0.20S. Laughton · Missed · xG 0.20O. Lindblom · On goal · xG 0.20O. Lindblom · On goal · xG 0.18O. Tippett · On goal · xG 0.16J. van Riemsdyk · On goal · xG 0.12M. Frost · On goal · xG 0.10K. Hayes · On goal · xG 0.08O. Tippett · On goal · xG 0.08S. Laughton · Missed · xG 0.08T. Konecny · Missed · xG 0.07Z. MacEwen · On goal · xG 0.07K. Connauton · Missed · xG 0.07T. Konecny · Missed · xG 0.06J. Farabee · On goal · xG 0.06O. Tippett · On goal · xG 0.05J. Farabee · On goal · xG 0.05J. van Riemsdyk · On goal · xG 0.05T. Sanheim · On goal · xG 0.05T. Konecny · On goal · xG 0.05K. Hayes · On goal · xG 0.04J. Farabee · On goal · xG 0.04O. Tippett · On goal · xG 0.03S. Laughton · On goal · xG 0.03T. Konecny · Missed · xG 0.03M. Frost · On goal · xG 0.03J. Farabee · Missed · xG 0.03K. Hayes · Goal · xG 0.03R. Attard · Missed · xG 0.02I. Provorov · On goal · xG 0.02T. Sanheim · On goal · xG 0.02R. Attard · On goal · xG 0.02T. Konecny · On goal · xG 0.02E. Zamula · On goal · xG 0.01S. Laughton · On goal · xG 0.01O. Tippett · On goal · xG 0.01J. Farabee · On goal · xG 0.01K. Hayes · On goal · xG 0.01O. Lindblom · On goal · xG 0.00O. Lindblom · Missed · xG 0.00B. Brink · On goal · xG 0.00
PHI3 G · 3.5 xG · 45 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsPHI
4.54 G
All situations
3 G3.5
3.42 G
Even strength
3 G3.2
0.42 G
Power play
0 G0.3
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 99 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF56%44%PHI

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.82 – 3.41

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsPHI
40
Shots on goal
35
44%
Faceoffs
56%
2/2
Power play
0/2
4
Penalty minutes
4
31
Hits
29
14
Blocked shots
16
8
Giveaways
15
7
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
23M. SamuelssonD011+340.53540—26:05
26R. DahlinD022+300.00510—24:07
25O. PowerD000-310.01020—22:09
10H. JokiharjuD000-330.05100—21:25
72T. ThompsonC202-141.014003618:21
89A. TuchR000030.54110—16:34
53J. SkinnerL022-150.8521010016:12
37C. MittelstadtC000020.320004315:29
19P. KrebsC022010.001101715:11
71V. OlofssonL202-140.26200—15:08
28Z. GirgensonsC000+130.121105815:00
24D. CozensC011030.221205314:14
29V. HinostrozaC000+110.08002014:10
96A. BjorkL101+130.43000—14:04
21K. OkposoR000020.0410210013:28
78J. BrysonD000000.00400—11:50
45C. FitzgeraldD000010.01310—11:47
74R. AsplundC000000.00000010:46
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31D. Tokarski(W)35323.9143.54+0.5460:00

Season series

BUF leads 3-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).