Canadiens at Stars 5-3 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

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Montréal Canadiens

▸5

Dallas Stars

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Recap

written from the game data

The Montréal Canadiens beat the Dallas Stars 5-3. The Canadiens scored first and never trailed. The Canadiens led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Tyler Toffoli's goal at 1:03 of the third period, which took the Canadiens' chances from 71% to 89%. Expected goals favored the Stars, 5.7 to 2.2; shots on goal were MTL 22, DAL 51. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Stars win a replay of these chances 90% of the time. Samuel Montembeault stopped 48 of 51 (.941), 2.7 goals saved above expected; Jake Oettinger stopped 14 of 19 (.737), 3.2 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Samuel Montembeault (48 saves, .941), 2. Christian Dvorak (2 G), 3. Tyler Toffoli (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

★
S. Montembeault48 saves, .941
★★
C. Dvorak2 G
★★★
T. Toffoli1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
MTL	07	27	38	522
DAL	014	114	223	351

Scoring

8 goals

2nd period

C. Dvorak(6)PPG
T. Toffoli (13), N. Suzuki (13)
snapxG 0.14win prob +16 pts
1-0
7:35
M. Pezzetta(3)
J. Evans (3), A. Lehkonen (9)
deflectedxG 0.38win prob +17 pts
2-0
7:57
J. Peterson(6)
J. Pavelski (22)
tip-inxG 0.07win prob +17 pts
2-1
16:24

3rd period

T. Toffoli(6)SHG
N. Suzuki (14)
slapxG 0.15win prob +18 pts
3-1
1:03
C. Dvorak(7)
Unassisted
backhandxG 0.10win prob +7 pts
4-1
2:38
T. Seguin(10)
J. Hanley (1), D. Gurianov (9)
tip-inxG 0.10win prob +7 pts
4-2
3:03
J. Anderson(8)
J. Drouin (14), R. Pitlick (6)
wristxG 0.14win prob +6 pts
5-2
4:17
J. Pavelski(16)PPG
T. Seguin (5), R. Hintz (13)
wristxG 0.23
5-3
18:41

Penalties

39 PIM·

20 PIM

1st

2:37Ben Chiarot · Holdingdrawn by Denis Gurianov2 min
13:59Mike Hoffman · Trippingdrawn by Michael Raffl2 min

2nd

5:56Joel Hanley · Hookingdrawn by Laurent Dauphin2 min
14:00Nick Suzuki · Hookingdrawn by Ryan Suter2 min
17:35Ryan Suter · High stickingdrawn by Tyler Toffoli2 min
19:28Jeff Petry · Holdingdrawn by Radek Faksa2 min

3rd

5:04Ryan Poehling · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
7:30Ryan Suter · Roughingdrawn by Nick Suzuki2 min
7:30Nick Suzuki · Roughingdrawn by Ryan Suter2 min
12:03Jonathan Drouin · Cross checkingdrawn by Tyler Seguin5 min
12:03Tyler Seguin · Cross checkingdrawn by Jonathan Drouin2 min
12:03Josh Anderson · Misconductdrawn by Jamie Benn10 min
12:03Jamie Benn · Misconductdrawn by Josh Anderson10 min
12:03Jonathan Drouin · Game misconductdrawn by Tyler Seguin10 min
12:54Miro Heiskanen · Trippingdrawn by Christian Dvorak2 min
17:20Jeff Petry · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: DAL

Biggest swing: Tyler Toffoli, 3rd 1:03 — MTL 71% → 89%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

3 G · 5.7 xG · 81 att

←

attacks

attacks →

5 G · 2.2 xG · 31 att DAL

3 G · 5.7 xG · 81 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.25 G
All situations: 3 G5.7; 1.53 G
Even strength: 2 G2.0; 0.51 G
Power play: 1 G3.5; 0.31 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 112 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

10%90%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.18 – 5.47

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

22
Shots on goal: 51; 46%
Faceoffs: 54%; 1/3
Power play: 1/8; 39
Penalty minutes: 20; 29
Hits: 14; 31
Blocked shots: 13; 16
Giveaways: 11; 2
Takeaways: 4

Box score

every player line

Montréal Canadiens skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
26J. PetryD	0	0	0	+2	0	0.03	2	3	4	—	23:19
58D. SavardD	0	0	0	0	1	0.10	3	4	0	—	23:01
8B. ChiarotD	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	4	5	2	—	21:20
28C. DvorakC	2	0	2	0	2	0.24	0	1	0	67	18:48
14N. SuzukiC	0	2	2	+1	0	0.00	3	3	4	35	18:46
73T. ToffoliC	1	1	2	+1	3	0.33	0	3	0	0	17:45
43K. ClagueD	0	0	0	+3	0	0.00	0	0	0	—	17:21
27A. RomanovD	0	0	0	0	2	0.02	4	4	0	—	17:17
71J. EvansC	0	1	1	+1	3	0.14	1	3	0	55	16:04
92J. DrouinL	0	1	1	+1	1	0.07	1	0	15	50	14:27
32R. PitlickC	0	1	1	+1	1	0.18	0	0	0	0	14:24
17J. AndersonR	1	0	1	+1	2	0.23	5	1	10	—	13:41
68M. HoffmanC	0	0	0	0	1	0.19	0	2	2	0	13:37
20C. WidemanD	0	0	0	-1	1	0.02	0	0	0	—	13:18
62A. LehkonenL	0	1	1	0	1	0.09	0	1	0	—	11:42
45L. DauphinC	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	0	1	0	0	11:34
25R. PoehlingC	0	0	0	-1	2	0.15	3	0	2	25	09:18
55M. PezzettaL	1	0	1	0	1	0.38	3	0	0	—	06:15

Montréal Canadiens goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
35S. Montembeault(W)	51	48	3	.941	5.66	+2.66	59:42

Season series

Tied 1-1

Jan 185@3this game
Mar 174@3OTFinal

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Montréal Canadiens at Dallas Stars

2nd period

3rd period

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score