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Sabres at Penguins
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Pittsburgh Penguins

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
▸2
Pittsburgh Penguins
1
FinalTV ATTSN-PT, MSG-B·PPG Paints Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the Pittsburgh Penguins 2-1. The Sabres scored first and never trailed. The Sabres led 2-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Kyle Okposo's goal at 8:54 of the second period, which took the Sabres' chances from 65% to 83%. Expected goals favored the Penguins, 3.7 to 1.5; shots on goal were BUF 19, PIT 46. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Penguins win a replay of these chances 83% of the time. Dustin Tokarski stopped 45 of 46 (.978), 2.7 goals saved above expected; Tristan Jarry stopped 17 of 19 (.895). Three stars: 1. Dustin Tokarski (45 saves, .978), 2. Colin Miller (1 G), 3. Jake Guentzel (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    D. Tokarski45 saves, .978
  2. ★★
    BUF
    C. Miller1 G
  3. ★★★
    PIT
    J. Guentzel1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BUFBUF0102603219
PITPIT014012120146

Scoring

3 goals

2nd period

  1. BUF
    C. Miller(2)
    D. Caggiula (3), D. Cozens (5)
    slapxG 0.02win prob +16 pts
    1-0
    0:28
  2. BUF
    K. Okposo(4)
    Z. Girgensons (4), R. Dahlin (6)
    tip-inxG 0.11win prob +18 pts
    2-0
    8:54

3rd period

  1. PIT
    J. Guentzel(5)PPG
    B. Rust (4), S. Crosby (1)
    deflectedxG 0.10win prob +12 pts
    2-1
    5:59

Penalties

BUF 13 PIM·PIT 15 PIM

1st

  • 9:13BUFJacob Bryson · Interferencedrawn by Jake Guentzel2 min

2nd

  • 3:14PITDanton Heinen · High stickingdrawn by Colin Miller2 min
  • 12:14BUFCody Eakin · Slashingdrawn by Bryan Rust2 min
  • 18:28BUFMark Pysyk · Trippingdrawn by Danton Heinen2 min
  • 19:28PITBryan Rust · Holdingdrawn by Drake Caggiula2 min

3rd

  • 2:30PITMarcus Pettersson · Interferencedrawn by Vinnie Hinostroza2 min
  • 5:10BUFAnders Bjork · Hookingdrawn by Mike Matheson2 min
  • 11:47PITZachary Aston-Reese · Fightingdrawn by Robert Hagg5 min
  • 11:47BUFRobert Hagg · Fightingdrawn by Zachary Aston-Reese5 min
  • 11:47PITZachary Aston-Reese · Roughingdrawn by Robert Hagg2 min
  • 18:24PITKris Letang · Slashingdrawn by Vinnie Hinostroza2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
PIT goalBUF goalFinal: PIT 0%

Biggest swing: Kyle Okposo, 2nd 8:54 — BUF 65% → 83%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
D. Heinen · On goal · xG 0.48S. Crosby · Missed · xG 0.16J. Guentzel · On goal · xG 0.15J. Zucker · On goal · xG 0.15J. Guentzel · On goal · xG 0.14T. Blueger · On goal · xG 0.13J. Carter · On goal · xG 0.13T. Blueger · On goal · xG 0.12E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.12J. Zucker · Missed · xG 0.12J. Zucker · On goal · xG 0.11J. Guentzel · On goal · xG 0.11E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.10J. Carter · On goal · xG 0.10J. Guentzel · Goal · xG 0.10B. McGinn · On goal · xG 0.09S. Crosby · Missed · xG 0.09B. Rust · On goal · xG 0.08E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.08J. Guentzel · On goal · xG 0.08K. Kapanen · Missed · xG 0.07K. Kapanen · On goal · xG 0.06K. Kapanen · On goal · xG 0.06B. Rust · On goal · xG 0.06S. Crosby · On goal · xG 0.05D. Heinen · Missed · xG 0.05S. Crosby · On goal · xG 0.05B. McGinn · On goal · xG 0.04K. Letang · On goal · xG 0.04K. Letang · Missed · xG 0.04K. Kapanen · On goal · xG 0.04J. Carter · On goal · xG 0.04M. Matheson · On goal · xG 0.04J. Carter · On goal · xG 0.03Z. Aston-Reese · On goal · xG 0.03E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.03C. Ruhwedel · On goal · xG 0.03K. Letang · Missed · xG 0.03J. Carter · On goal · xG 0.02B. Dumoulin · On goal · xG 0.02M. Pettersson · On goal · xG 0.02M. Pettersson · On goal · xG 0.02J. Marino · On goal · xG 0.02J. Marino · On goal · xG 0.02M. Pettersson · On goal · xG 0.02M. Matheson · Missed · xG 0.02K. Letang · On goal · xG 0.02E. Rodrigues · Missed · xG 0.02M. Pettersson · On goal · xG 0.02M. Pettersson · On goal · xG 0.01D. Heinen · On goal · xG 0.01M. Matheson · On goal · xG 0.01C. Ruhwedel · On goal · xG 0.01M. Matheson · Missed · xG 0.01B. Dumoulin · On goal · xG 0.00K. Letang · On goal · xG 0.00
PIT1 G · 3.7 xG · 56 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsPIT
1.52 G
All situations
1 G3.7
1.32 G
Even strength
0 G2.4
0.30 G
Power play
1 G0.9
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 80 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF17%83%PIT

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.54 – 3.63

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsPIT
19
Shots on goal
46
45%
Faceoffs
55%
0/5
Power play
1/4
13
Penalty minutes
15
25
Hits
31
18
Blocked shots
7
6
Giveaways
11
8
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
26R. DahlinD011+120.13110—22:56
78J. BrysonD000+100.00332—22:49
33C. MillerD101+110.12320—21:31
13M. PysykD000+100.03142—18:54
72T. ThompsonC000010.103004518:30
53J. SkinnerL000030.20110—17:56
28Z. GirgensonsC011+110.011106317:53
21K. OkposoR101+110.12010—17:41
8R. HaggD000010.01035—16:51
74R. AsplundC000010.0300010014:57
25A. RuotsalainenC000010.112002514:47
29V. HinostrozaC000+110.15000014:33
91D. CaggiulaL011+110.17200—13:45
4W. ButcherD000010.04200—12:56
24D. CozensC011+120.210104512:34
20C. EakinC000+110.091026912:23
96A. BjorkL000010.04002—11:47
15J. HaydenC000000.00510010:16
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31D. Tokarski(W)46451.9783.68+2.6860:00

Season series

BUF leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).