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Sabres at Penguins
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Pittsburgh Penguins

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
2
Pittsburgh Penguins
▸3
Final/OTTV ATTSN-PT, MSG-B·PPG Paints Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Pittsburgh Penguins beat the Buffalo Sabres 3-2 in overtime, Jeff Carter scoring at 2:53. The Penguins scored first and never trailed. The Penguins led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jeff Carter's goal at 2:53 of overtime, which took the Penguins' chances from 51% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Penguins, 4.1 to 1.4; shots on goal were BUF 21, PIT 48. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Penguins win a replay of these chances 88% of the time. Malcolm Subban stopped 45 of 48 (.938), 1.1 goals saved above expected; Tristan Jarry stopped 19 of 21 (.905), 0.6 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Jeff Carter (1 G), 2. Evan Rodrigues (1 G), 3. Casey Fitzgerald (1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    PIT
    J. Carter1 G
  2. ★★
    PIT
    E. Rodrigues1 G
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    C. Fitzgerald1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
BUFBUF051101501221
PITPIT12111001512348

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. PIT
    E. Rodrigues(10)PPG
    K. Letang (18), S. Crosby (14)
    snapxG 0.10win prob +8 pts
    0-1
    5:53

2nd period

  1. PIT
    B. McGinn(8)
    M. Matheson (9), T. Blueger (5)
    wristxG 0.34win prob +15 pts
    0-2
    6:45
  2. BUF
    Z. Girgensons(6)
    C. Fitzgerald (1), J. Hayden (2)
    wristxG 0.21win prob +15 pts
    1-2
    12:35

3rd period

  1. BUF
    R. Dahlin(6)
    R. Asplund (10), K. Okposo (14)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +37 pts
    2-2
    14:42

Overtime

  1. PIT
    J. Carter(9)
    K. Letang (19)
    tip-inxG 0.13win prob +49 pts
    2-3
    2:53

Penalties

BUF 18 PIM·PIT 16 PIM

1st

  • 5:21BUFRasmus Dahlin · Cross checkingdrawn by Drew O'Connor2 min
  • 13:17BUFTage Thompson · Fightingdrawn by Zachary Aston-Reese5 min
  • 13:17PITZachary Aston-Reese · Fightingdrawn by Tage Thompson5 min
  • 13:17BUFTage Thompson · Unsportsmanlike conductdrawn by Zachary Aston-Reese2 min
  • 15:25PITDominik Simon · Trippingdrawn by Mark Jankowski2 min

2nd

  • 4:09BUFCasey Fitzgerald · Fightingdrawn by Sam Lafferty5 min
  • 4:09PITSam Lafferty · Fightingdrawn by Casey Fitzgerald5 min
  • 4:23BUFColin Miller · Roughingdrawn by Dominik Simon2 min
  • 17:07PITMarcus Pettersson · Slashingdrawn by Vinnie Hinostroza2 min
  • 17:22BUFTage Thompson · Holdingdrawn by Brock McGinn2 min

3rd

  • 19:55PITJeff Carter · Trippingdrawn by Zemgus Girgensons2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
PIT goalBUF goalFinal: PIT 100%

Biggest swing: Jeff Carter, OT 2:53 — PIT 51% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
B. McGinn · Goal · xG 0.34E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.30E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.19B. McGinn · On goal · xG 0.16S. Lafferty · On goal · xG 0.15J. Carter · Goal · xG 0.13J. Carter · On goal · xG 0.13J. Carter · On goal · xG 0.13E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.13J. Carter · On goal · xG 0.12E. Rodrigues · Goal · xG 0.10K. Kapanen · On goal · xG 0.10S. Crosby · On goal · xG 0.09B. McGinn · On goal · xG 0.09K. Kapanen · On goal · xG 0.09J. Zucker · On goal · xG 0.09J. Carter · On goal · xG 0.08E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.08J. Carter · On goal · xG 0.07E. Rodrigues · Missed · xG 0.07E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.07D. O'Connor · Missed · xG 0.07K. Kapanen · On goal · xG 0.06S. Lafferty · Missed · xG 0.06J. Zucker · On goal · xG 0.06S. Crosby · Missed · xG 0.06J. Carter · Missed · xG 0.06M. Matheson · On goal · xG 0.05K. Kapanen · On goal · xG 0.05D. O'Connor · On goal · xG 0.05J. Zucker · Missed · xG 0.05K. Kapanen · On goal · xG 0.05D. Simon · On goal · xG 0.05S. Crosby · On goal · xG 0.05M. Matheson · Missed · xG 0.05Z. Aston-Reese · Missed · xG 0.05E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.05D. O'Connor · Missed · xG 0.04K. Letang · On goal · xG 0.04D. O'Connor · On goal · xG 0.04K. Letang · Missed · xG 0.03B. Dumoulin · Missed · xG 0.03D. O'Connor · On goal · xG 0.03K. Letang · On goal · xG 0.03K. Letang · On goal · xG 0.02J. Carter · Missed · xG 0.02J. Marino · On goal · xG 0.02M. Matheson · Missed · xG 0.02M. Matheson · On goal · xG 0.01D. O'Connor · On goal · xG 0.01J. Marino · Missed · xG 0.01S. Lafferty · Missed · xG 0.01K. Letang · On goal · xG 0.01M. Matheson · On goal · xG 0.01J. Carter · Missed · xG 0.01J. Carter · On goal · xG 0.01E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.01D. Simon · On goal · xG 0.01E. Rodrigues · Missed · xG 0.01M. Pettersson · On goal · xG 0.01E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.01S. Crosby · On goal · xG 0.01B. McGinn · On goal · xG 0.01D. Heinen · On goal · xG 0.01J. Zucker · On goal · xG 0.00
PIT3 G · 4.1 xG · 65 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsPIT
1.42 G
All situations
3 G4.1
1.22 G
Even strength
2 G2.6
0.10 G
Power play
1 G1.4
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 95 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF12%88%PIT

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.35 – 3.87

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsPIT
21
Shots on goal
48
45%
Faceoffs
55%
0/3
Power play
1/4
18
Penalty minutes
16
32
Hits
28
12
Blocked shots
8
5
Giveaways
9
4
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
10H. JokiharjuD000010.02110—24:27
26R. DahlinD101040.08342—23:47
13M. PysykD000010.03000—20:24
78J. BrysonD000000.00110—19:41
21K. OkposoR011010.031007518:12
17M. JankowskiL000+100.190205017:58
33C. MillerD000000.03102—17:24
45C. FitzgeraldD011+120.05525—16:42
24D. CozensC000010.131002916:20
29V. HinostrozaC000010.01100015:58
72T. ThompsonC000010.113094315:18
28Z. GirgensonsC101+110.21300014:46
71V. OlofssonL000-110.08100—14:44
53J. SkinnerL000-100.00000—14:39
57B. MurrayL000000.08200—14:39
15J. HaydenC011+140.31710014:36
74R. AsplundC011+110.01100012:43
20C. EakinC000-120.031105012:27
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
47M. Subban(O)48453.9384.05+1.0562:53

Season series

BUF leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).