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Coyotes at Predators
NHL

Utah Mammoth at Nashville Predators

NHL scoreboard
Utah Mammoth
1
Nashville Predators
▸4
FinalTV BSAZ, BSSO·Bridgestone Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Nashville Predators beat the Utah Mammoth 4-1. The Predators scored first and never trailed. The Predators led 3-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Matt Duchene's goal at 11:14 of the first period, which took the Predators' chances from 54% to 67%. Expected goals were close — ARI 2.0, NSH 2.0; shots on goal were ARI 23, NSH 24. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Coyotes win a replay of these chances 51% of the time. Karel Vejmelka stopped 20 of 24 (.833), 2.0 goals below expected; Juuse Saros stopped 22 of 23 (.957), 1.0 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Roman Josi (2 G, 2 A), 2. Matt Duchene (1 G, 1 A), 3. Eeli Tolvanen (2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NSH
    R. Josi2 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    NSH
    M. Duchene1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    NSH
    E. Tolvanen2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
ARIARI0507111123
NSHNSH2617111424

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. NSH
    M. Duchene(9)
    R. Josi (9)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +13 pts
    0-1
    11:14
  2. NSH
    R. Josi(5)PPG
    E. Tolvanen (2), M. Duchene (7)
    slapxG 0.04win prob +11 pts
    0-2
    18:12

2nd period

  1. NSH
    M. Granlund(3)
    E. Tolvanen (3), R. Josi (10)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +9 pts
    0-3
    7:02

3rd period

  1. NSH
    R. Josi(6)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.03win prob +2 pts
    0-4
    5:54
  2. ARI
    J. Chychrun(1)PPG
    P. Kessel (4), S. Gostisbehere (10)
    wristxG 0.05
    1-4
    13:30

Penalties

ARI 28 PIM·NSH 35 PIM

1st

  • 1:42NSHMathieu Olivier · Fightingdrawn by Liam O'Brien5 min
  • 1:42ARILiam O'Brien · Fightingdrawn by Mathieu Olivier5 min
  • 12:30ARIAntoine Roussel · Instigatordrawn by Mark Borowiecki2 min
  • 12:30ARIAntoine Roussel · Fightingdrawn by Mark Borowiecki5 min
  • 12:30ARIAntoine Roussel · Misconduct10 min
  • 12:30NSHMark Borowiecki · Kneeingdrawn by Dmitrij Jaskin5 min
  • 12:30NSHMark Borowiecki · Fightingdrawn by Antoine Roussel5 min
  • 12:30NSHMark Borowiecki · Game misconduct10 min
  • 14:55NSHDante Fabbro · Trippingdrawn by Barrett Hayton2 min
  • 17:47ARITravis Boyd · Trippingdrawn by Tommy Novak2 min

2nd

  • 4:04NSHTommy Novak · High stickingdrawn by Shayne Gostisbehere2 min
  • 4:49ARIJakob Chychrun · Interferencedrawn by Dante Fabbro2 min
  • 19:47NSHRoman Josi · Trippingdrawn by Clayton Keller2 min

3rd

  • 3:46NSHRoman Josi · Slashingdrawn by Clayton Keller2 min
  • 12:59NSHserved by M. Olivier · Too many men on the ice2 min
  • 15:44ARIIlya Lyubushkin · Cross checkingdrawn by Luke Kunin2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NSH goalARI goalFinal: NSH 100%

Biggest swing: Matt Duchene, 1st 11:14 — NSH 54% → 67%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
R. Johansen · On goal · xG 0.21P. Tomasino · Missed · xG 0.19E. Tolvanen · On goal · xG 0.16R. Johansen · On goal · xG 0.14M. McCarron · On goal · xG 0.12L. Kunin · Missed · xG 0.12M. Duchene · Goal · xG 0.11C. Sissons · On goal · xG 0.07M. Granlund · Missed · xG 0.06E. Tolvanen · On goal · xG 0.06P. Tomasino · On goal · xG 0.05M. McCarron · On goal · xG 0.05M. Granlund · Goal · xG 0.05R. Johansen · Missed · xG 0.04M. Granlund · On goal · xG 0.04P. Myers · Missed · xG 0.04T. Novak · On goal · xG 0.04R. Josi · Goal · xG 0.04M. Ekholm · Missed · xG 0.04R. Josi · Goal · xG 0.03T. Jeannot · On goal · xG 0.03R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.03D. Fabbro · On goal · xG 0.03D. Fabbro · On goal · xG 0.03R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.03M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.02M. Ekholm · Missed · xG 0.02P. Myers · Missed · xG 0.02M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.02R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.02D. Fabbro · On goal · xG 0.02D. Fabbro · On goal · xG 0.01M. Benning · Missed · xG 0.01M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.01P. Myers · Missed · xG 0.01R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.01R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.00
NSH4 G · 2.0 xG · 37 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

ARIvsNSH
2.01 G
All situations
4 G2.0
0.90 G
Even strength
3 G1.5
1.11 G
Power play
1 G0.4
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 66 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
ARI51%49%NSH

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.98 – 1.95

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

ARIvsNSH
23
Shots on goal
24
52%
Faceoffs
48%
1/6
Power play
1/3
28
Penalty minutes
35
8
Hits
18
4
Blocked shots
5
3
Giveaways
4
5
Takeaways
3

Box score

every player line
Utah Mammoth skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
14S. GostisbehereD011000.07010—25:58
9C. KellerR000040.810005025:43
86A. StralmanD000010.02000—24:28
6J. ChychrunD101-140.19302—23:27
17A. GalchenyukC000-130.1301010019:17
67L. CrouseL000-110.10200—18:07
81P. KesselR011-150.40000—17:52
61D. MayoD000-120.04000—17:08
29B. HaytonC000000.040005015:50
22J. LarssonL000-110.100003815:11
72T. BoydC000-100.001024414:59
54C. DineenD000-200.00000—14:10
21L. ErikssonL000-210.05000—13:11
83J. BeagleC000-100.000007113:00
46I. LyubushkinD000-300.00102—12:59
26A. RousselL000010.030117—09:43
38L. O'BrienC000000.00105009:05
93D. JaskinR000000.0001010003:27
Utah Mammoth goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
70K. Vejmelka(L)24204.8331.96-2.0460:00

Season series

NSH leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).