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Sabres at Penguins
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Pittsburgh Penguins

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
4
Pittsburgh Penguins
▸8
FinalTV ATTSN-PT, MSG-B·PPG Paints Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Pittsburgh Penguins beat the Buffalo Sabres 8-4. The lead changed hands 3 times. The Penguins led 5-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Brian Dumoulin's goal at 6:26 of the second period, which took the Penguins' chances from 53% to 70%. Expected goals favored the Penguins, 3.1 to 2.1; shots on goal were BUF 23, PIT 34. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Penguins win a replay of these chances 68% of the time. Michael Houser stopped 26 of 34 (.765), 4.9 goals below expected; Tristan Jarry stopped 19 of 23 (.826), 1.9 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Jeff Carter (4 G), 2. Kasperi Kapanen (1 G, 1 A), 3. Frederick Gaudreau (3 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    PIT
    J. Carter4 G
  2. ★★
    PIT
    K. Kapanen1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    PIT
    F. Gaudreau3 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BUFBUF1526112423
PITPIT210313311834

Scoring

12 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    D. Caggiula(2)
    R. Sheahan (9)
    snapxG 0.08win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    2:45
  2. PIT
    J. Carter(13)
    J. McCann (17), F. Gaudreau (5)
    snapxG 0.15win prob +13 pts
    1-1
    9:57
  3. PIT
    J. Carter(14)PPG
    J. Zucker (8), K. Kapanen (19)
    snapxG 0.18win prob +11 pts
    1-2
    11:39

2nd period

  1. BUF
    T. Thompson(8)
    C. Mittelstadt (12)
    wristxG 0.28win prob +16 pts
    2-2
    3:32
  2. PIT
    J. Carter(15)
    M. Pettersson (7), F. Gaudreau (6)
    wristxG 0.18win prob +17 pts
    2-3
    4:36
  3. BUF
    D. Caggiula(3)
    C. Miller (8), R. Ristolainen (13)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +17 pts
    3-3
    5:13
  4. PIT
    B. Dumoulin(4)
    K. Letang (37), S. Crosby (38)
    slapxG 0.04win prob +17 pts
    3-4
    6:26
  5. PIT
    J. McCann(14)
    F. Gaudreau (7)
    snapxG 0.08win prob +15 pts
    3-5
    7:25

3rd period

  1. PIT
    J. Carter(16)
    J. McCann (18)
    backhandxG 0.09win prob +6 pts
    3-6
    3:02
  2. PIT
    S. Crosby(24)
    K. Letang (38), J. Guentzel (34)
    tip-inxG 0.11win prob +1 pts
    3-7
    6:25
  3. BUF
    J. Skinner(7)PPG
    T. Thompson (6), R. Ristolainen (14)
    wristxG 0.14
    4-7
    9:45
  4. PIT
    K. Kapanen(11)
    E. Malkin (20), J. Zucker (9)
    snapxG 0.09
    4-8
    13:05

Penalties

BUF 2 PIM·PIT 4 PIM

1st

  • 10:18BUFArttu Ruotsalainen · Trippingdrawn by Kasperi Kapanen2 min

2nd

  • 19:16PITBrian Dumoulin · Holdingdrawn by Arttu Ruotsalainen2 min

3rd

  • 7:58PITJason Zucker · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
PIT goalBUF goalFinal: PIT 100%

Biggest swing: Brian Dumoulin, 2nd 6:26 — PIT 53% → 70%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. McCann · On goal · xG 0.25J. Carter · Goal · xG 0.18S. Crosby · On goal · xG 0.18J. Carter · Goal · xG 0.18Z. Aston-Reese · On goal · xG 0.16J. Carter · Goal · xG 0.15E. Malkin · On goal · xG 0.14E. Malkin · On goal · xG 0.13Z. Aston-Reese · On goal · xG 0.12S. Crosby · Goal · xG 0.11C. Sceviour · On goal · xG 0.11J. Guentzel · On goal · xG 0.11C. Ceci · On goal · xG 0.10K. Kapanen · On goal · xG 0.10K. Letang · Missed · xG 0.09K. Kapanen · Goal · xG 0.09J. Zucker · On goal · xG 0.09E. Malkin · Missed · xG 0.09J. Carter · Goal · xG 0.09J. McCann · Goal · xG 0.08J. Guentzel · On goal · xG 0.07Z. Aston-Reese · On goal · xG 0.07J. Carter · On goal · xG 0.04B. Dumoulin · Goal · xG 0.04K. Letang · On goal · xG 0.04J. Zucker · On goal · xG 0.04K. Letang · Missed · xG 0.03J. Zucker · On goal · xG 0.03M. Friedman · On goal · xG 0.02K. Letang · On goal · xG 0.02T. Blueger · On goal · xG 0.02K. Letang · On goal · xG 0.02J. Marino · On goal · xG 0.02K. Letang · Missed · xG 0.01M. Pettersson · On goal · xG 0.01C. Ceci · Missed · xG 0.01J. Guentzel · On goal · xG 0.01C. Ceci · Missed · xG 0.01K. Letang · On goal · xG 0.01S. Crosby · On goal · xG 0.00
PIT8 G · 3.1 xG · 40 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsPIT
2.14 G
All situations
8 G3.1
1.33 G
Even strength
7 G2.8
0.81 G
Power play
1 G0.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 69 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF32%68%PIT

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.05 – 3.06

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsPIT
23
Shots on goal
34
48%
Faceoffs
52%
1/2
Power play
1/1
2
Penalty minutes
4
24
Hits
17
10
Blocked shots
8
7
Giveaways
11
4
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
26R. DahlinD000010.07310—24:05
55R. RistolainenD022-210.02840—21:36
54M. SamuelssonD000-200.00110—21:07
10H. JokiharjuD000010.01200—20:27
23S. ReinhartC000-340.390005319:45
96A. BjorkL000-310.06000—19:15
68V. OlofssonL000-320.16100—19:08
37C. MittelstadtC011-120.131104415:58
78J. BrysonD000-200.00220—15:40
72T. ThompsonC112-130.33100015:00
24D. CozensC000-210.101002514:36
74R. AsplundC000-110.09110014:03
25A. RuotsalainenC000-200.06102013:41
33C. MillerD011-200.02100—13:38
15R. SheahanC011+200.000005413:28
91D. CaggiulaL202+240.21000—13:09
53J. SkinnerL101-110.18000—12:53
57B. MurrayL000+110.23100—11:10
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
32M. Houser(L)34268.7653.07-4.9360:00

Season series

PIT leads 7-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).