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Penguins at Sabres
NHL

Pittsburgh Penguins at Buffalo Sabres

NHL scoreboard
Pittsburgh Penguins
2
Buffalo Sabres
▸4
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Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the Pittsburgh Penguins 4-2. The Sabres scored first and never trailed. The Sabres led 2-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Sam Reinhart's goal at 2:18 of the second period, which took the Sabres' chances from 69% to 84%. Expected goals favored the Sabres, 2.9 to 2.4; shots on goal were PIT 36, BUF 29. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Penguins win a replay of these chances 55% of the time. Casey DeSmith stopped 25 of 28 (.893), 0.8 goals below expected; Dustin Tokarski stopped 34 of 36 (.944). Three stars: 1. Sam Reinhart (2 G), 2. Dustin Tokarski (34 saves, .944), 3. Rasmus Dahlin (2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    S. Reinhart2 G
  2. ★★
    BUF
    D. Tokarski34 saves, .944
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    R. Dahlin2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
PITPIT012013211236
BUFBUF1919211429

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    A. Ruotsalainen(2)
    D. Cozens (7), R. Dahlin (15)
    slapxG 0.14win prob +11 pts
    0-1
    0:26

2nd period

  1. BUF
    S. Reinhart(16)
    V. Olofsson (14), J. Skinner (5)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +15 pts
    0-2
    2:18

3rd period

  1. BUF
    S. Reinhart(17)PPG
    V. Olofsson (15), R. Dahlin (16)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +3 pts
    0-3
    8:02
  2. PIT
    J. Zucker(7)
    J. Carter (12), J. McCann (11)
    snapxG 0.16win prob +3 pts
    1-3
    10:18
  3. BUF
    R. Asplund(6)EN
    C. Mittelstadt (7)
    wristxG 0.74
    1-4
    18:12
  4. PIT
    T. Blueger(5)
    E. Rodrigues (6), C. Ceci (11)
    snapxG 0.04
    2-4
    19:36

Penalties

PIT 8 PIM·BUF 4 PIM

1st

  • 3:19PITJason Zucker · Slashingdrawn by Mattias Samuelsson2 min
  • 10:54PITJake Guentzel · Trippingdrawn by Rasmus Dahlin2 min

2nd

  • 2:59BUFCody Eakin · Hookingdrawn by Mike Matheson2 min

3rd

  • 7:12PITMarcus Pettersson · Hookingdrawn by Casey Mittelstadt2 min
  • 11:46BUFRasmus Dahlin · Holding the stickdrawn by Sidney Crosby2 min
  • 14:30PITKris Letang · Trippingdrawn by Jeff Skinner2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalPIT goalFinal: BUF 100%

Biggest swing: Sam Reinhart, 2nd 2:18 — BUF 69% → 84%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
R. Asplund · Goal · xG 0.74R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.24R. Asplund · On goal · xG 0.15A. Ruotsalainen · Goal · xG 0.14C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.14J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.13T. Rieder · Missed · xG 0.11S. Reinhart · Goal · xG 0.10R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.10R. Sheahan · On goal · xG 0.09J. Skinner · Missed · xG 0.09T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.09S. Reinhart · Missed · xG 0.08R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.06T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.06R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.06R. Ristolainen · Missed · xG 0.05S. Reinhart · Goal · xG 0.05J. Skinner · Missed · xG 0.05S. Reinhart · Missed · xG 0.05R. Sheahan · On goal · xG 0.04T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.03C. Miller · On goal · xG 0.03R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.03V. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.03R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.03R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.02C. Miller · On goal · xG 0.02R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.02J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.02M. Samuelsson · On goal · xG 0.01R. Sheahan · On goal · xG 0.01R. Asplund · Missed · xG 0.01D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.01V. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.01T. Rieder · On goal · xG 0.01
BUF4 G · 2.9 xG · 36 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

PITvsBUF
2.42 G
All situations
3 G2.9
2.22 G
Even strength
2 G1.8
0.30 G
Power play
1 G0.3
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 86 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
PIT55%45%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.43 – 2.14

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

PITvsBUF
36
Shots on goal
29
46%
Faceoffs
54%
0/2
Power play
1/4
8
Penalty minutes
4
13
Hits
22
13
Blocked shots
11
6
Giveaways
8
6
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Pittsburgh Penguins skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
58K. LetangD000-240.09102—23:35
8B. DumoulinD000-100.00000—21:38
59J. GuentzelC000-240.52012021:13
87S. CrosbyC000-230.511005421:00
17B. RustR000-140.26010—20:58
5M. MathesonD000+110.05110—20:40
4C. CeciD011030.04210—19:16
6J. MarinoD000+110.02000—18:28
77J. CarterC011040.270204716:02
53T. BluegerC101010.122102515:34
19J. McCannL011010.04000—15:22
16J. ZuckerL101040.36002—14:48
12Z. Aston-ReeseL000000.00120—14:39
9E. RodriguesC011010.120102913:44
28M. PetterssonD000030.05112—12:56
7C. SceviourC000020.01310009:10
14M. JankowskiL000000.001106008:06
67R. ZohornaL000000.00000—07:15
Pittsburgh Penguins goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
1C. DeSmith(L)28253.8932.16-0.8458:46

Season series

PIT leads 7-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).