Penguins at Sabres 3-0 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

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Pittsburgh Penguins

▸3

Buffalo Sabres

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Recap

written from the game data

The Pittsburgh Penguins beat the Buffalo Sabres 3-0. The Penguins scored first and never trailed. The Penguins led 1-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jake Guentzel's goal at 16:37 of the second period, which took the Penguins' chances from 53% to 69%. Expected goals favored the Penguins, 4.1 to 1.8; shots on goal were PIT 34, BUF 24. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Penguins win a replay of these chances 67% of the time. Casey DeSmith stopped 24 of 24 (1.000), 1.8 goals saved above expected; Carter Hutton stopped 31 of 32 (.969), 1.7 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Jake Guentzel (1 G), 2. Casey DeSmith (24 saves, 1.000), 3. Carter Hutton (31 saves, .969).

Three stars

★
J. Guentzel1 G
★★
C. DeSmith24 saves, 1.000
★★★
C. Hutton31 saves, .969

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
PIT	010	112	212	334
BUF	06	012	06	024

Scoring

3 goals

2nd period

J. Guentzel(10)PPG
E. Malkin (15), K. Letang (13)
wristxG 0.11win prob +17 pts
1-0
16:37

3rd period

S. Crosby(10)EN
K. Letang (14)
wristxG 0.48win prob +3 pts
2-0
19:07
M. Jankowski(2)EN
T. Blueger (11), B. Tanev (7)
snapxG 0.80
3-0
19:44

Penalties

4 PIM·

4 PIM

1st

8:40Kris Letang · Hookingdrawn by Taylor Hall2 min

2nd

16:24Colin Miller · Hookingdrawn by Evgeni Malkin2 min

3rd

10:21Colin Miller · High stickingdrawn by Evan Rodrigues2 min
12:07Anthony Angello · Slashingdrawn by Rasmus Ristolainen2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: BUF

Biggest swing: Jake Guentzel, 2nd 16:37 — PIT 53% → 69%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

0 G · 1.8 xG · 36 att

←

attacks

attacks →

3 G · 4.1 xG · 43 att BUF

0 G · 1.8 xG · 36 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

4.11 G
All situations: 0 G1.8; 2.20 G
Even strength: 0 G1.6; 0.31 G
Power play: 0 G0.2; 0.20 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 79 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

67%33%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.65 – 1.77

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

34
Shots on goal: 24; 51%
Faceoffs: 49%; 1/2
Power play: 0/2; 4
Penalty minutes: 4; 8
Hits: 24; 9
Blocked shots: 10; 5
Giveaways: 1; 3
Takeaways: 6

Box score

every player line

Pittsburgh Penguins skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
58K. LetangD	0	2	2	+1	5	0.16	0	1	2	—	24:51
8B. DumoulinD	0	0	0	0	4	0.21	0	1	0	—	23:43
4C. CeciD	0	0	0	0	2	0.38	1	3	0	—	20:53
59J. GuentzelC	1	0	1	+1	8	0.68	0	0	0	0	20:09
17B. RustR	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	0	1	0	—	19:16
87S. CrosbyC	1	0	1	+1	2	0.65	1	1	0	42	19:04
71E. MalkinC	0	1	1	0	1	0.19	0	0	0	50	17:49
5M. MathesonD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	0	0	0	—	17:39
53T. BluegerC	0	1	1	+1	2	0.22	0	0	0	64	16:38
42K. KapanenR	0	0	0	0	3	0.33	0	0	0	—	16:31
28M. PetterssonD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.01	0	1	0	—	16:17
13B. TanevL	0	1	1	+1	1	0.34	1	0	0	—	15:23
9E. RodriguesC	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	1	1	0	67	15:09
2C. RuhwedelD	0	0	0	+1	1	0.02	0	0	0	—	14:52
12Z. Aston-ReeseL	0	0	0	0	1	0.12	1	0	0	—	13:14
14M. JankowskiL	1	0	1	+1	2	0.82	0	0	0	67	09:53
7C. SceviourC	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	2	0	0	0	07:43
57A. AngelloC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	0	2	0	06:56

Pittsburgh Penguins goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
1C. DeSmith(W)	24	24	0	1.000	1.78	+1.78	60:00

Season series

PIT leads 7-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Pittsburgh Penguins at Buffalo Sabres

2nd period

3rd period

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score