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Flames at Oilers
NHL

Calgary Flames at Edmonton Oilers

NHL scoreboard
Calgary Flames
1
Edmonton Oilers
▸4
FinalTV NHLN, CBC·Rogers Place

Recap

written from the game data

The Edmonton Oilers beat the Calgary Flames 4-1. The Oilers scored first and never trailed. The Oilers led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Johnny Gaudreau's goal at 10:48 of the second period, which took the Flames' chances from 13% to 28%. Expected goals favored the Oilers, 3.8 to 2.4; shots on goal were CGY 30, EDM 29. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Oilers win a replay of these chances 53% of the time. Jacob Markstrom stopped 25 of 27 (.926), 0.6 goals saved above expected; Mike Smith stopped 29 of 30 (.967), 1.4 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Mike Smith (29 saves, .967), 2. Jacob Markstrom (25 saves, .926), 3. Connor McDavid (1 G, 2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    EDM
    M. Smith29 saves, .967
  2. ★★
    CGY
    J. Markstrom25 saves, .926
  3. ★★★
    EDM
    C. McDavid1 G, 2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
CGYCGY07112011130
EDMEDM21009210429

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. EDM
    C. McDavid(29)PPG
    L. Draisaitl (44), T. Barrie (35)
    snapxG 0.16win prob +8 pts
    0-1
    4:46
  2. EDM
    E. Bear(2)
    C. McDavid (57), L. Draisaitl (45)
    slapxG 0.09win prob +14 pts
    0-2
    7:19

2nd period

  1. CGY
    J. Gaudreau(18)
    M. Tkachuk (24), C. Tanev (8)
    snapxG 0.49win prob +15 pts
    1-2
    10:48

3rd period

  1. EDM
    J. Archibald(7)EN
    L. Draisaitl (46), C. McDavid (58)
    wristxG 0.45win prob +5 pts
    1-3
    18:54
  2. EDM
    D. Nurse(15)EN
    J. Archibald (4), L. Draisaitl (47)
    wristxG 0.74
    1-4
    19:34

Penalties

CGY 8 PIM·EDM 10 PIM

1st

  • 3:55CGYJuuso Välimäki · Hookingdrawn by Jesse Puljujarvi2 min
  • 9:22EDMEthan Bear · Interferencedrawn by Brett Ritchie2 min
  • 12:11EDMDarnell Nurse · Boardingdrawn by Rasmus Andersson2 min

2nd

  • 7:58CGYMilan Lucic · Cross checkingdrawn by Caleb Jones2 min
  • 13:33EDMserved by K. Yamamoto · Too many men on the ice2 min

3rd

  • 8:26CGYMatthew Tkachuk · Slashingdrawn by Tyson Barrie2 min
  • 8:26EDMTyson Barrie · Roughingdrawn by Matthew Tkachuk2 min
  • 13:41EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins · Roughingdrawn by Matthew Tkachuk2 min
  • 13:41CGYMatthew Tkachuk · Roughingdrawn by Ryan Nugent-Hopkins2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
EDM goalCGY goalFinal: EDM 100%

Biggest swing: Johnny Gaudreau, 2nd 10:48 — CGY 13% → 28%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
D. Nurse · Goal · xG 0.74J. Archibald · Goal · xG 0.45D. Kahun · On goal · xG 0.27R. Nugent-Hopkins · On goal · xG 0.21K. Yamamoto · On goal · xG 0.20A. Chiasson · On goal · xG 0.19L. Draisaitl · On goal · xG 0.17C. McDavid · Goal · xG 0.16L. Draisaitl · On goal · xG 0.15J. Puljujarvi · On goal · xG 0.11A. Chiasson · On goal · xG 0.10A. Chiasson · On goal · xG 0.10R. Nugent-Hopkins · On goal · xG 0.09E. Bear · Goal · xG 0.09C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.09R. Nugent-Hopkins · On goal · xG 0.07R. McLeod · Missed · xG 0.07D. Nurse · Missed · xG 0.06D. Kulikov · On goal · xG 0.05R. Nugent-Hopkins · On goal · xG 0.04L. Draisaitl · On goal · xG 0.04A. Chiasson · On goal · xG 0.04C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.04D. Nurse · On goal · xG 0.04E. Bear · On goal · xG 0.04T. Barrie · On goal · xG 0.03D. Kahun · Missed · xG 0.02E. Bear · On goal · xG 0.02D. Kulikov · On goal · xG 0.02L. Draisaitl · On goal · xG 0.02J. Puljujarvi · Missed · xG 0.02J. Puljujarvi · On goal · xG 0.01E. Bear · On goal · xG 0.01
EDM4 G · 3.8 xG · 33 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

CGYvsEDM
2.41 G
All situations
2 G3.8
1.71 G
Even strength
1 G1.6
0.70 G
Power play
1 G1.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 78 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
CGY47%53%EDM

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.35 – 2.53

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

CGYvsEDM
30
Shots on goal
29
35%
Faceoffs
65%
0/3
Power play
1/2
8
Penalty minutes
10
39
Hits
26
7
Blocked shots
17
11
Giveaways
12
11
Takeaways
9

Box score

every player line
Calgary Flames skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
5M. GiordanoD000070.17230—25:43
4R. AnderssonD000-210.02410—22:13
8C. TanevD011+100.00300—21:46
89N. NesterovD000-120.07210—20:46
11M. BacklundC000-110.290001820:05
13J. GaudreauL101-240.75000—18:41
28E. LindholmC000-100.002003518:33
88A. MangiapaneL000-130.18200—17:43
19M. TkachukL011-150.49304—17:15
17M. LucicL000000.02202—15:06
29D. DubeC000-110.22400015:00
23S. MonahanC000-100.001005414:56
6J. VälimäkiD000-120.04112—13:31
26M. StoneD000-110.00410—12:53
10D. RyanC000020.070003810:54
20J. NordstromC000000.01500010:27
24B. RitchieR000010.08300—10:04
53B. RobinsonR000000.00100—08:47
Calgary Flames goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
25J. Markstrom(L)27252.9262.57+0.5758:46

Season series

EDM leads 6-4

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).