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Maple Leafs at Canucks
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Vancouver Canucks

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
2
Vancouver Canucks
▸3
Final/OTTV SN, TVAS·Rogers Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Vancouver Canucks beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 3-2 in overtime, Bo Horvat scoring at 1:19. The Canucks came back from two goals down. The Maple Leafs led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Bo Horvat's goal at 1:19 of overtime, which took the Canucks' chances from 51% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 4.8 to 1.7; shots on goal were TOR 39, VAN 24. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 90% of the time. Jack Campbell stopped 21 of 24 (.875), 1.3 goals below expected; Braden Holtby stopped 37 of 39 (.949), 2.8 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Braden Holtby (37 saves, .949), 2. William Nylander (1 G, 1 A), 3. Bo Horvat (2 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    VAN
    B. Holtby37 saves, .949
  2. ★★
    TOR
    W. Nylander1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    VAN
    B. Horvat2 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
TORTOR11211501200239
VANVAN081511011324

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    W. Nylander(14)
    J. Tavares (25)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    3:45

2nd period

  1. TOR
    A. Matthews(33)PPG
    W. Nylander (18), J. Tavares (26)
    deflectedxG 0.08win prob +15 pts
    2-0
    14:57
  2. VAN
    B. Horvat(15)
    N. Hoglander (10)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +17 pts
    2-1
    16:23

3rd period

  1. VAN
    N. Hoglander(8)
    J. Chatfield (1), B. Horvat (14)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +35 pts
    2-2
    12:03

Overtime

  1. VAN
    B. Horvat(16)
    T. Myers (11), B. Boeser (18)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +49 pts
    2-3
    1:19

Penalties

TOR 2 PIM·VAN 19 PIM

1st

  • 6:55VANAlexander Edler · Slashingdrawn by William Nylander2 min

2nd

  • 7:14VANJ.T. Miller · Hookingdrawn by Jason Spezza2 min
  • 10:16VANAlexander Edler · Kneeingdrawn by Zach Hyman5 min
  • 10:16VANAlexander Edler · Game misconductdrawn by Zach Hyman10 min

3rd

  • 5:59TORJustin Holl · Cross checkingdrawn by Brandon Sutter2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
VAN goalTOR goalFinal: VAN 100%

Biggest swing: Bo Horvat, OT 1:19 — VAN 51% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
B. Horvat · Missed · xG 0.15B. Horvat · Missed · xG 0.13J. Vesey · On goal · xG 0.10B. Horvat · Goal · xG 0.10B. Boeser · On goal · xG 0.10J. Miller · Missed · xG 0.10N. Hoglander · On goal · xG 0.09B. Boeser · On goal · xG 0.08J. Miller · Missed · xG 0.07T. Pearson · On goal · xG 0.07N. Hoglander · Goal · xG 0.07B. Boeser · Missed · xG 0.06J. Hawryluk · Missed · xG 0.06A. Roussel · On goal · xG 0.06B. Sutter · On goal · xG 0.06J. Vesey · Missed · xG 0.06B. Horvat · Goal · xG 0.06B. Boeser · On goal · xG 0.05Q. Hughes · On goal · xG 0.04T. Myers · On goal · xG 0.04J. Miller · On goal · xG 0.04A. Roussel · On goal · xG 0.04B. Sutter · On goal · xG 0.03T. Hamonic · On goal · xG 0.02A. Edler · On goal · xG 0.02T. Hamonic · On goal · xG 0.01A. Roussel · On goal · xG 0.01T. Myers · On goal · xG 0.01T. Myers · On goal · xG 0.00A. Edler · On goal · xG 0.00N. Hoglander · On goal · xG 0.00
VAN3 G · 1.7 xG · 31 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsVAN
4.82 G
All situations
3 G1.7
2.91 G
Even strength
3 G1.2
1.71 G
Power play
0 G0.4
0.20 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 89 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR90%10%VAN

Flurry-adjusted xG 4.75 – 1.70

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsVAN
39
Shots on goal
24
53%
Faceoffs
47%
1/4
Power play
0/1
2
Penalty minutes
19
13
Hits
11
13
Blocked shots
23
5
Giveaways
7
6
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
44M. RiellyD000-130.21010—24:00
34A. MatthewsC101-271.250106023:40
8J. MuzzinD000-120.18140—23:36
16M. MarnerR000-240.36100—22:48
91J. TavaresC022030.340006421:03
88W. NylanderR112030.14000—21:00
78T. BrodieD000000.00010—19:49
3J. HollD000-110.08112—18:57
12A. GalchenyukC000-210.56300016:43
22Z. BogosianD000010.06300—14:48
24W. SimmondsR000020.21110—14:20
19J. SpezzaC000020.310105013:24
65I. MikheyevR000020.33210—13:22
89N. RobertsonL000+120.31010—13:17
97J. ThorntonC000030.210003312:42
15A. KerfootC000010.090005711:33
23T. DermottD000000.00010—11:18
11Z. HymanL000020.16100—05:49
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
36J. Campbell(O)24213.8751.71-1.2961:07

Season series

TOR leads 5-4

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).