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Lightning at Predators
NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning at Nashville Predators

NHL scoreboard
Tampa Bay Lightning
2
Nashville Predators
▸7
FinalTV ESPN+, BSSO·Bridgestone Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Nashville Predators beat the Tampa Bay Lightning 7-2. The Predators scored first and never trailed. The Predators led 4-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Roman Josi's goal at 8:31 of the first period, which took the Predators' chances from 66% to 80%. Expected goals favored the Predators, 2.4 to 1.6; shots on goal were TBL 23, NSH 22. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Predators win a replay of these chances 67% of the time. Curtis McElhinney stopped 15 of 22 (.682), 4.6 goals below expected; Juuse Saros stopped 21 of 23 (.913). Three stars: 1. Viktor Arvidsson (2 G, 1 A), 2. Roman Josi (1 G, 2 A), 3. Ryan Johansen (2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NSH
    V. Arvidsson2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    NSH
    R. Josi1 G, 2 A
  3. ★★★
    NSH
    R. Johansen2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TBLTBL081718223
NSHNSH3715310722

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. NSH
    C. Sissons(7)
    R. Pitlick (1), R. Josi (21)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    6:38
  2. NSH
    R. Josi(5)
    R. Grimaldi (3)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +14 pts
    0-2
    8:31
  3. NSH
    V. Arvidsson(9)
    R. Johansen (10), B. Harpur (6)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +10 pts
    0-3
    13:50

2nd period

  1. TBL
    B. Point(17)PPG
    V. Hedman (31), M. Sergachev (22)
    deflectedxG 0.09win prob +7 pts
    1-3
    0:41
  2. NSH
    R. Grimaldi(9)
    R. Johansen (11), V. Arvidsson (14)
    backhandxG 0.08win prob +9 pts
    1-4
    8:09

3rd period

  1. NSH
    V. Arvidsson(10)
    R. Josi (22)
    wristxG 0.16win prob +1 pts
    1-5
    9:59
  2. TBL
    Y. Gourde(15)
    E. Cernak (10)
    wristxG 0.25
    2-5
    11:28
  3. NSH
    T. Jeannot(1)
    Y. Trenin (5)
    wristxG 0.02
    2-6
    14:34
  4. NSH
    M. Granlund(11)
    R. Pitlick (2), N. Cousins (9)
    wristxG 0.12
    2-7
    18:34

Penalties

TBL 8 PIM·NSH 6 PIM

1st

  • 10:07TBLCurtis McElhinney · Trippingdrawn by Yakov Trenin2 min
  • 19:37NSHRyan Ellis · Cross checkingdrawn by Yanni Gourde2 min

2nd

  • 10:13TBLPatrick Maroon · Hookingdrawn by Roman Josi2 min
  • 12:28TBLErik Cernak · Roughingdrawn by Erik Haula2 min
  • 12:28NSHErik Haula · Slashingdrawn by Erik Cernak2 min
  • 16:26TBLOndrej Palat · Interferencedrawn by Nick Cousins2 min

3rd

  • 15:04NSHJeremy Davies · Hookingdrawn by Ross Colton2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NSH goalTBL goalFinal: NSH 100%

Biggest swing: Roman Josi, 1st 8:31 — NSH 66% → 80%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
Y. Trenin · Missed · xG 0.24R. Johansen · On goal · xG 0.20R. Ellis · On goal · xG 0.18C. Jarnkrok · On goal · xG 0.16V. Arvidsson · Goal · xG 0.16M. Granlund · Goal · xG 0.12R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.11V. Arvidsson · Goal · xG 0.10R. Josi · Goal · xG 0.09V. Arvidsson · Missed · xG 0.08R. Grimaldi · Goal · xG 0.08M. Granlund · On goal · xG 0.07R. Grimaldi · On goal · xG 0.07C. Jarnkrok · Missed · xG 0.07R. Grimaldi · Missed · xG 0.07R. Grimaldi · Missed · xG 0.06R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.06Y. Trenin · Missed · xG 0.06Y. Trenin · On goal · xG 0.05C. Sissons · Goal · xG 0.04E. Haula · Missed · xG 0.04R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.03M. Benning · On goal · xG 0.03M. Ekholm · Missed · xG 0.03C. Jarnkrok · On goal · xG 0.02V. Arvidsson · On goal · xG 0.02T. Jeannot · Goal · xG 0.02R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.02J. Davies · On goal · xG 0.02L. Kunin · Missed · xG 0.02M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.02J. Davies · On goal · xG 0.02T. Jeannot · Missed · xG 0.01B. Harpur · Missed · xG 0.01R. Ellis · On goal · xG 0.00
NSH7 G · 2.4 xG · 35 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TBLvsNSH
1.62 G
All situations
7 G2.4
1.11 G
Even strength
7 G2.1
0.21 G
Power play
0 G0.3
0.30 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 67 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TBL33%67%NSH

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.52 – 2.36

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TBLvsNSH
23
Shots on goal
22
31%
Faceoffs
69%
1/2
Power play
0/3
8
Penalty minutes
6
14
Hits
19
2
Blocked shots
17
9
Giveaways
12
4
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
77V. HedmanD011-310.05100—24:27
98M. SergachevD011-320.13100—22:48
81E. CernakD011020.02102—20:54
27R. McDonaghD000-100.00100—20:14
58D. SavardD000-400.00200—19:23
71A. CirelliC000-200.001004518:42
37Y. GourdeC101-240.431102516:48
21B. PointC101-230.210001716:19
20B. ColemanL000-230.07100—16:09
19B. GoodrowC000-220.262005615:25
17A. KillornL000-100.01000—15:13
7M. JosephR000020.27000—15:05
18O. PalatL000-200.00012—14:34
9T. JohnsonC000-100.011002212:58
14P. MaroonL000-100.00102—11:28
2L. SchennD000-120.04100—11:10
79R. ColtonC000-110.020001810:32
67M. StephensC000-210.030002509:51
Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35C. McElhinney(L)22157.6822.38-4.6260:00

Season series

TBL leads 6-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).